Why Israel probably won't attack Iran

Originally posted by persian

Originally posted by Ashlar
Great post!

I tend to agree with persian, a near-term attack is out of the question.

however, the US/Israel is pretty bent on taming Iran, i think that whithin 2-3 years, they will have to use an terrorist excuse to provoke a land war with Iran

Ashlar, I think its too late for strike against Iranian nuclear sites. I believe Iran already got nukes. There are lots of roomers in Iran that the last two earth quacks in Iran was caused by underground nuclear test.

I left both quotes because I agree with them.

Iran, whether the U.S. likes it or not, is its own nation. From the days prior to the Shah "the west" have sought to control this region.

Iran is NOT Iraq. Iran will not be over run in a matter of days as Iraq was. The rulers in Iran enjoy broad based support. Iran is wealthy and educated.

While the west knows a lot about Iran it doesn't know how to control conquered peoples:
American colonies,
Nicaraugua,
Phillipines,
Haiti,
India,
Rhodesia,
South Africa,
Algeria,
Viet Nam,
Cambodia,
Iraq and
hundreds of other examples.

From earlliest times to the present the west has had only scant success in maintaining order in conquered places.

Back to Iran- the Iranians want progress. They realize that peace with the west is in their interests. The west want Iranian products including oil. However, on both "sides" conservatives (the new "c" word) want to de-rail cooperatrion by
any means possible.

Why do we have to invade Iran or take them over? We will do an Air strike on their Nuclear facilities. If they respond we use our air superiority to bomb them into submission like Bosnia. We use our navy cruise missile to take out their facilities and again bomb them so bad they agree to stop aggression. We could cover the Afghani border or Iraqi borer with Abrams and protect those borders with aircraft, so we keep Iran contained while we bomb them into submission.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Iran doesn't have the tech to do controlled underground nuke tests, and that is all they are rumors. If Iran was just doing underground explosions without control the radiation would have been picked up by US satellites which monitor the globe for this very reason. The region of Iran where this testing would be done would already be contaminated and we would have hear about it.

Hello Westpoint. I thought that the underground test would not release a tremendous amount of radiation into the environment. Typically there is a spherical cavity formed by the explosion, covered inside with melted rock (similar to glass), so it effectively seals itself. It has been done in other places, I don't see why Iran can't do this exercise. Just drill a well 1.0 mile deep, lower the nuke... Hit the button

3) They're in possession of over 250 nukes(more than the UK)

The UK, the US and Russia are the only three countries that have nuclear delivery systems that can hit any spot on earth. The fact that you claim to have 250 nukes (Israel has never officially admitted having nukes) compared to our 185-192 means little when you compare delivery systems. Plus our cruice missiles are cooler

4) They have the best and most dangerous Intelligence agency that double-deals with many countries, obtaining vital information about their enemies.

Compared to the CIA, FBI, MI5, SIS(a.k.a MI6) and the FSB? That's a strong statement. Even if you infiltrated an american organisation you would have us to deal with. George Tenet critisized the american intelligence community by pointing out that the CIA spends more cooperating with the SIS (British intelligence) than the FBI. If Israel infiltrated a UK or US group you would have to keep the intelligence, counter-intelligence and ELINT agencies on both sides of the Atlantic in the dark. Also, last time I checked Israel wasn't involved in ECHELON. Good luck...

[edit on 16-8-2004 by Cjwinnit]

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Iran doesn't have the tech to do controlled underground nuke tests, and that is all they are rumors. If Iran was just doing underground explosions without control the radiation would have been picked up by US satellites which monitor the globe for this very reason. The region of Iran where this testing would be done would already be contaminated and we would have hear about it. A war with Iran is not out of the question, Iran doesn't have ICBM's nuke bombs and ICBM�s are very different. If they have one nuke bomb they wont use it on the invading army cuz that would destroy Iran too its counterproductive. Do you know what happens to countries that attack US troops with nukes they turn into glowing craters

[edit on 8-8-2004 by WestPoint23]

Ok, do you even know what the purpose of underground nuclear tests is?
So that radio active martial do not spread into the air, you dum arss.

WESTPOINT23,

THough your idea sounds interesting at the first glance, but in my opinion, if there is a country that wants to take the responsibility of a pre-emptive raid on Iran, is US not Israel; The reason for that simply stays in the geographical positions. Iran can never reach to US soil in any mode, but just can shout and cry in response to US attack, but Israel is close enough to Iran for any kind of possible retaliation; In addition to that, Israel's international credit is far bellow of that for US, also far less stability for the jewish state one might see. All together, that doesn't seem plausible for Israel to go for such a risky attack!

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