Silver lining??

Notably, JP Morgan, COMEX and CME Group have orchestrated the biggest financial crime - manipulation/suppression of gold and silver prices.

■ Views about silver going parabolic is an uneducated nonsense.
In 1982, silver hit high US$50 and a box of 18 oz Kellogg's corn flakes was US$1.25.
Today (2011), a box of 12 oz Kellogg's corn flakes costs US$3.79.
Can we bring back food prices back to those in 1982?

■ International financial regulations must be righteous.
Gold and silver must be tied to inflation. However, the entire world's balance has been troubled by corrupted Americans and Western bankers.

reply to post by eLPresidente


I'm hoping this is the low.

I wouldn't doubt it if it went into another dip. Does anyone know where I can find useful information on how the jpm silver manipulation trial is going. It seems difficult to search for. All I find is stuff from around December.

Originally posted by eLPresidente
Who thinks it is going down a little more before going past 50!?

Tuff call at this juncture eLPresidenteI, best to let your stops be the final arbiter. It wouldn't be unusual to see a test of Friday's low at some point in the not to distant future, and I guess there's always the possibility were looking at an early stage bull-trap (at least one gloating "expert" is already convinced that a strong bounce from here will be of the "dead cat" variety). I'd never crawl that far out on a limb, but I'll gladly hand Moriarty a saw. He's been wrong in the past, and I sincerely hope he's wrong again...mostly because I'm a long by nature, but also cause I've always harbored a personal dislike for his "style".

Silver Rally

Bob Moriarty
May 6, 2011

But if we see a rally up to $46-$47 which would be very typical of a countertrend rally, look out below. That's when you will see a real silver crash. - Full Text

A couple of potential, immediate-term headwinds - looks like the dollar is gunning for a minimum 75 handle off the current rally, and the last hike in margin requirements goes into effect @ Monday's mark to market close. *Courtesy of your friendly Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

How Silver performs from here is a matter of ego for Moriarty (see previous post). Fortunately we can expect a cleaner, less biased opinion from Turk.

May 9, 2011
James Turk - Silver Will Hit New Highs in a Matter of Weeks

So what is ahead for this current correction? Repeats of 2004 and 2006, or another 2008? My guess is none of the above. It took several months after these three previous corrections before silver climbed above the high price that preceded the correction. This time I expect silver will take only several weeks before exceeding $49.78, the 31-year high reached on April 25th. The reason? - More & Chart

The fundamentals haven't wavered. Since this was a technical correction in the purest sense, a few weeks to repair chart damage would be my best guestimate also.

Still holding OTM calls, but I bailed yesterday @ $37.50 on positions entered Friday @ $34.40. Didn't like the chart, and didn't like the bearish action in the miners (a pretty reliable indicator of a looming take-down in the metals). Most especially, I didn't like the Comex open interest pattern. We had Silver open interest shrinking, while prices were rising...evidence that the buying Mon/Tue was driven by short covering, as opposed to new buyers entering the market.

*Shorts (sellers) close-out (cover) underwater short positions by entering (buying) offsetting long positions.

Now we test support levels.

Trader Dan yesterday:

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Silver shedding open interest

Based on the reported open interest and volume numbers by the exchange, silver's rally yesterday was sparked by fresh shorts who sold the bottom last Thursday and Friday and are now having those sky high margins hit them for a change. Perhaps they have now learned that what is good for the goose is also good for the gander.

The market has had a nice pop off the low down near $33 but has yet to regain its footing above the 40 and 50 day moving averages. Until it does, its technical posture, while greatly improved, still remains bearish on the daily chart. You will note on the chart that unlike gold, which has retraced half of its recent losses, silver has not yet been able to recapture the 38.2% retracement level of its recent leg lower. - Text Including Charts

Previously considered the realm of tinfoil [mad] hatters and wild eyed Gold bugs, silver's popularity as an affordable investment alternative has grown substantially since Jan 2010 when Adam Hamilton penned this research on Silver seasonality. So as we trudge our way into the historical slow period for precious metals, I remain guardedly optimistic that positive fundamentals, broadening awareness, and raw sentiment can trump/mute the summer seasonal trend this cycle.

Between now and the second week in June we'll know more.

Silver Bull Seasonals

Maybe you guys have already read that SLV has been trading at record discounts to it's NAV, and to Comex spot prices, actually -$1.99 against NAV and -$1.30 against spot at yesterday's close. Typically SLV Authorized Participants (broker dealers) are quick to arbitrage significant price disparities using the SLV creation/redemption mechanism...but so far they're a no show. I interpret their absence as lingering uncertainty over the near-term direction of the underlying.

Still a jittery market.

Originally posted by OBE1
A couple of potential, immediate-term headwinds - looks like the dollar is gunning for a minimum 75 handle off the current rally....

USD captured 75 on Wednesday [see chart], and on a weekly basis the significance of yesterday's closing @ 75.72 shouldn't be underestimated imo. The dollar just bounced off a 20yr support zone 71/73, and previous breaks above 75, 2008 and 2009 for example, have generated multi-month rallies into the high 80's. Comfortable holding long dated calls, but imo, Silver still has the potential to probe lower support levels on the strength of a dollar rally that could extend a bit higher/longer than some folks expect.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3a20a0e09c15.jpg[/atsimg]

The dollar finished the day modestly lower/essentially flat, but has managed to hold above that key 75 level for four days running, and the dollar uptrend remains intact printing a series of higher highs/higher lows.

In support of my short-term bullish dollar thesis, I think equities are in the initial stage of a significant correction here, and if the majors breakdown, unfortunately Silver goes with.

A test of $30 isn't baked in the cake yet, but should we test that price and fail, I'll probably go short there with $22.50/23.00 as a potential downside target on the extreme.

To anyone feeling befuddled or dismayed by the recent action in the metal, all I can say is welcome to Silver, one of the most manipulated markets on planet financial. I've held a substantial physical position in both Gold & Silver bullion (actually hold a larger position in Gold by dollar value) through every major correction since this secular bull market began to roll. Have I been disappointed at times ? absolutely, but I've never sold a single ounce of my core holdings, and I've never lost a nights sleep worrying over these crazy interim speed-bumps either. We go higher in each metal...much higher...much longer. Patience is a golden virtue.

I really like Darryl Robert Schoon's understated signature.

Buy gold, buy silver, have faith - DRS

*Not advice. I'm just another mug trying to save his ass[ets] in a cutthroat, highly manipulated, dog eat dog market environment.

An opportunity to eavesdrop courtesy of Bix Weir (Road To Roota).

Silver bulls will already be familiar with most of these names. Participants include David Morgan (The Morgan Report), Bill Murphy (GATA/Lemetropole Cafe), James Anderson (GoldSilver.com), mining CEO Bob Quartermain, Rob Kirby (Kirby Analytics), Eric Sprott (Sprott Asset Management), and relative newcomer "Sean" (SGTReport.com).

Quite a cast.

SILVER CONFERENCE CALL

This interview speaks for itself...

Call Leaked - Biggest Names Discuss Silver

Link

Interesting tension in the precious metals this evening. Dollar strength is blowing a headwind, while a record high in Euro-Gold is lending support. I think this dollar rally is proving to be a little sticker than many bears anticipated. After finding support at the 50 day moving average last week (75.07), it looks like USD is making a serious bid for 76 tonight. And right on cue, futures began sliding into the hole.

Dynamic page...ratios may have changed by the time you visit the link.

Kitco Gold Index

Did gold really go down 4.20?

No. It actually went up 1.25 in real terms, but US Dollar strength makes it appear to have gone the other way.

Link

Back on the 16th I said I believed that equities were in the initial stage of a significant correction, and that if the major indices broke-down, Silver would go with. I think we saw that relationship in action today...with stocks & Silver pummeled, against the relative strength in Gold. Sometime soon I wouldn't be surprised if we get an informal statement from a sitting FOMC member "hinting" at the possibility of further accommodation. Intermittent relief rallies aside, I expect the stock market to stomp it's feet, hold it's breath, and turn blue in the face until it hears it.

Gold as a barometer of economic health, is signaling another round of stimulation, while the dollar, still sticky above 74, appears to be confused. Bucky's near-term direction, and by extension stocks & Silver, lies in the hands of Fed policy makers and their Euro-zone counterparts. Watching US equity markets and the EU debt crises with keen interest here.

If you've been involved on the long side of the precious metals market for any length of time, chances are you have developed a distaste for the perma-bearish attitude of Kitco's senior Gold analyst J. Nadler, and some have even questioned the integrity of the dealership itself.

If you click on the Kitco Silver page today, you get this message:

IMPORTANT

ue to a major power outage, Kitco`s offices are currently close. We are currently working on the issue and anticipate resolution shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience. - Link

And here's a back-story rumor that's making the rounds:

Kitco
posted on Jun 07, 11 01:33PM

A jeweller told me today that:

Kitco was raided today by the RCMP, Revenue Quebec and Revenue Canada.

They are allegedly being accused of promoting or abetting fraud. They are closed today as the canadian Govt has seized all their computers.

Rumour has it, that they owe also $150,000,000.00 canadian in un-paid taxes... - Link

Apparently the site is up and running, but the offices aren't. Not accusing...just passing it on. Lets see what happens here if anything.

reply to post by OBE1


Update on the Kitco situation. Looks like this story has some legs.

Snips:

Montreal Gazette

ax probe in gold sector

Revenue quebec investigating; Police conduct searches and seizures at 70 locations in Montreal area.

Claiming widespread tax fraud in the gold refining and trading sector, Revenue Quebec and police investigators this week conducted searches and seizures at 70 locations in and around Montreal Island and as far as St. Bernard de Lacolle.

One of the targeted sites was the downtown Montreal location of Kitco, a major buyer and seller of gold.

A note on the floor of its ninth-floor office on Cathcart St. on Thursday said that "operational constraints" had forced the service counter to close this week.

Kitco's alleged connection to the scheme stunned many.

The Montreal company has a high international profile in the precious metals sector. - Full Text

ZeroHedge weighs-in:

Kitco Charged With Massive Tax Fraud Scheme, Business Viability In Question

Life for the precious metals dealer, and home of the often times infamous Jon Nadler, Kitco just got very ugly.

Instead of trafficking in invoiceless gold, perhaps Kitco should have just pulled a Goldman, opened a prop desk, and bought the stuff. Hopefully they learn from this mistake. - More

Related: Revenu Quebec investigates widespread gold fraud