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"There's no point bleating about the future of pandas, polar bears and tigers when we're not addressing the one single factor that's putting more pressure on the ecosystem than any other - namely the ever-increasing size of the world's population.
"I read the other day that, by 2020, there are going to be 70 million people in Britain. Let's face it, that's too many.
"I wouldn't actually penalise people for having too many children, as I think the carrot always works better than the stick.
"But I would offer them tax breaks for having small families, say, 10% off your tax bill if you decide to stick with just one child.
"And an even bigger financial incentive if you choose not to have a family at all."
But hold on. All this anxiety is premised upon the idea that the population of the world is mushrooming. It certainly was throughout most of the 20th century. But, quietly, something has changed in recent years. The global population is continuing to grow. But, fairly suddenly, birthrates are falling all across the globe. In the 1970s women around the world had six children each; today they have just 2.7 children on average, and in some places that figure is as low as 1.
The implications of this will take a generation to work through, because the children born in the boom years have yet to have their own children, so there is a great deal of increase built in. Demographers call that population momentum. But the United Nations has had to revise downwards its prediction that the world population would reach 11.5 billion by 2050. The human race is now expected to peak, according to one of the world's top experts, Dr David Coleman, Professor of Demography at Oxford University, at 9.5 billion people. Then, around 2070, it will begin to decline. We have reached a demographic crossroads which will have dramatic consequences for large sections of the world – including us.
The magic figure for demographers is 2.1 births per couple. That, allowing for the fact that some girls die before they reach child-bearing age, is the figure at which a population replaces itself. In Europe the last time that fertility was above replacement level was in the mid-1960s. But now, for the first time on record, birthrates in southern and eastern Europe have dropped below 1.3 – well below the 1.5 which the United Nations has marked as the crisis point. If things continue the population there will be cut in half in just 45 years. In Italy, one recent survey put it at 1.2. Cities such as Milan and Bologna recorded less than 1, the lowest birthrates anywhere.
would become a crisis of under population rather than overpopulation
Originally posted by Flighty
i don't really buy all this.
On the one hand, they say have less kids.
Then on the other hand, they say they have to up the immigration intake to help pay for the old age pensions because there aren't enough younger generation to foot the bill.
So, I've come to the conclusion after seeing this cyclic circle for 3 decades, that immigration is actually what is the agenda behind all this less kids malarky.