ET first contact 'within 20 years'

If intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That is the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California.

Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.

Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.

For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy.

More: www.newscientist.com...

I would really like to know if there are other intelligent life forms out there before my demise, but I really just don't see this happening. If we can't even find the end of the universe, then how can we say we have probed it all?

I would love to be around for the first contact also! It would be a dream come true. But, I think that their prediction will sadly be underestimated....... I think if the world put more energy into the space and mankind and less on fighting, then we could achieve miracles in just 20 years. I can always dream though.

would be better than sex drugs and rocknroll to catch a message from et.

We have been hearing that for 40-50 years now. If it keeps being said, one of these days it will be correct.

Although I look forward to alien invasion rather than first contact, I can see no reason for this to happen...

What have we got that they want? In comparison to any being that can travel the distances required we would be considered savages...

And if we do make first contact at any point... we'll probably be at war with them 6 months later...

Our governments' lack of respect for the differences between our own people is guaranteed to make things difficult.

Fear the day that humans get out of our system.

Originally posted by mrmonsoon
We have been hearing that for 40-50 years now. If it keeps being said, one of these days it will be correct.

Couldn't agree more...I remember in 85' when some thought by '95 the truth would be revealed...by 2000...2002...2004. Honestly I don't think much has really changed since the 80's.

My prediction is maybe by the end of the century we may find a revelation on intelligent life. Before that I'm sure we will hear about life on another planet. I think there is a good chance that some intelligences are doing their best to hide themselves from Earthly detection.

I would also love to be around when first contact occurs hopefully by then I will be a General or maybe even the astronaught who incouters the little green bastards out in space...Thats if we bump to them out there.


But what if Aliens have a treaty that does not permit them from making contact or allowing lesser civilizations like us to make contact with them until they achieve Light speed or some thing around that....like in Star Trek

Originally posted by Jonna
I would really like to know if there are other intelligent life forms out there before my demise, but I really just don't see this happening. If we can't even find the end of the universe, then how can we say we have probed it all?

I would also like to see some verifiable physical evidence of an extraterrestrial intellgence before i leave this world.
And so does most of the people! Why do you think most of the UFOs are being associated with ETs? (not a question, point to think!)

Talking about "probing it all," we haven't explored much in the universe. We have just started the "search" ... It's a long way to go!

Yes Indeed we have a long way to go. First we have to solve problems down here on Earth before we can get our asses past Mars

Yeah, yeah, heard it all before.

Why don't people acknowledge the basic contradiction among alien believers...

As people seem to think that they are already here, doesn't that make all this SETI stuff a waste of time?

You can't take seti seriously and then in the same breath take UFO's seriously, its either one or the other.

So stop standing on the fence over this, either we HAVE been visited and they already exist, or we HAVN"T been visited and they may be found , maybe, in the future.

Personally I think Shostak is merely trying to drum up enthusiasm to get more funding as SETI I gather is on the bones of its ass at present.

If he can get people enthusiastic about it "might be able to find" life, then the program will carry on being financed. Doesn't matter if ther eis no validity to what he is saying.

Paul Such says

""... predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."

The guy is dead right, we are no closer today torwards solving the question than we were 10 years ago, the prediction of 20 years is just a hope, not based on any grounding in reality.

The emporer doesn't have any clothes on in this case. Its all funding, smoke, and supposition....

I'm highly optimistic and hope that it might happen earlier then 20years.. I really expect big things to happen to the WORLD and civilization during my life-time. BUT I'm sure that many before me have also hoped and wished these things, just that tecnhology and science has grown so much in these past couple of decades that some form of contact with another civilization is only a matter of time.

PEACE

Originally posted by Netchicken
Why don't people acknowledge the basic contradiction among alien believers...

As people seem to think that they are already here, doesn't that make all this SETI stuff a waste of time?

You can't take seti seriously and then in the same breath take UFO's seriously, its either one or the other.

So stop standing on the fence over this, either we HAVE been visited and they already exist, or we HAVN"T been visited and they may be found , maybe, in the future.

I agree. Which is why I do not participate in the SETI@home program.

Hi all!!

There is also a thread about this in the ATS SETI@home team forum here so you can see "our" take on this.

For those who doubt the benefits of running SETI@home, could I please refer you to my (incomplete) Debate I had with psd_1, here? Whilst this doesn't cover exactly the same ground, I think it does touch on some aspects which might be of interest.

Idf, after all this, you feel like entering a debate with me (or with one of our 100 ATS team members), I'm sure we would be delighted to engage with you!!