Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014

Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated.

Source:
www.sciencedaily.com...

The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year.

So, from 2014 it will be impossible to increase the global oil production, and we will see a constant decline of the global output. 2014 is not very far , so we will see who is right and who is wrong.

reply to post by Romanian


Well as long as we aren't drilling in America than we are at the mercy of those that do. So yeah...we probably are close to peak production. I live near the Gulf so once I can't drive my car to work anymore I can always call in and then walk down to the beach and watch the dolphins swim by.

Originally posted by Romanian

Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated.

Source:
www.sciencedaily.com...

The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year.

So, from 2014 it will be impossible to increase the global oil production, and we will see a constant decline of the global output. 2014 is not very far , so we will see who is right and who is wrong.

Forgive me for not reading the quoted article (it's quite late here and I'm off to bed after this), but what is meant by 'conventional' crude production? The technology in the industry has been changing and evolving in the past few years allowing the industry to drill further and deeper than ever before. That, coupled with the fact that we appear to be able to take crude from oil sands (as in Canada - albeit at a currently inefficient rate of energy input) means that production and exploration have been proceeding as normal, if not at an increased rate, the past few years.

Originally posted by brewing
reply to post by Romanian

 

Well as long as we aren't drilling in America than we are at the mercy of those that do. So yeah...we probably are close to peak production. I live near the Gulf so once I can't drive my car to work anymore I can always call in and then walk down to the beach and watch the dolphins swim by.

haha. I don't think the American economy could continue to function with significantly reduced oil reserves, not only because of the need for oil and gas in manufacturing, but also (and principally) because everything is so spread out in the states these days (suburbs et c) the people would never be able to get to work, unlike here in the UK and Europe where it is possible to get around without a car, even if you don't live in a large city or near the city centre.

Sag-D is a method of recovering oil from the oil sands, and is efficient enough to work at the barrel price of 65$
The canadians and americans have billions of bbls trapped in oil shale as well.
1/3 of N America has this oil shale underlysing it.
This is also not taking into account the abiotic oil which the earth produces very deep down in the crust and this supply is presumably inexhaustable unless the fire goes out down there....
The whole peak oil thing is invented by the oil companies im sure.

I thought peak production was reached many years ago? Global oil reserves are certainly far far lower than those advertised by the industry - as gradual public info releases by both corporations and countries of the last couple of years has shown.
Who was the American oil guy that drew up production level charts in the late 50's / early 60's? He showed that global oil reserves and production were at their maximum in the 70's and have been declining steadily since (he extrapolated results forwrd to around 2030 - 2040 when he predicted oil would run out). The scary thing is, he has been almost bang on the money for every decade so far (which admittedly isn't the same as saying that he will be ultimately proved correct). Either way, we have been lied to for years in order to push up stock prices and create more wealth for the wealthy. Surely this false manipulation of the markets is fraud whichever way you look at it? Pessimistic about any charges ever being brough though.....

By the way, i apologise for the fact that i cannot the guy's name. For any out there that can be bothered to look him up, the facts are all out there. Most interestingly is that he is from that background (former corporate oil man) and has no axe to grind, just believes that we should honest about where we are at..........

reply to post by Flavian


I guess it is Hubbert if I remember the name of the guy well. He predicted the US peak with good accuracy . The peak on a global scale happened in 2005-2008 however it was not obvious if this was enforced by the recession , or we talk about the real deal. 2014 is in 3 years so we have trouble ahead for sure...

reply to post by stirling




The Canadian oil stuck in the sand is equivalent to 15 years of global consumption (or 400 years if Canada would use it at the rate of todays economy). Regardless of the environmental impact, I am sure this will be extracted to the last drop. However id does not change the peak theory at all, the calculations are including the tar sands in Canada and other countries. The fact that we actually extract the oil from the sands is proof we reached the peak - otherwise we would get easier to extract oil.

reply to post by Romanian


Local oil is always cheaper then shipping it over seas - regardless of how hard it is to extract.

reply to post by Romanian


Yeah thanks, think you are right with Hubbert. And definately right about us being in trouble. I mean we depend on oil for everything don't we? Even food which is a worrying thought!