Yen $ - Are TPTB Rolling Dice Here?

Yen is strongest it has ever been in Post War Era

www.businessweek.com...

We all remember October 2008 - when the financial crisis saw a plummeting DOW -
www.bloggingstocks.com...

What's the strongest currency in the world?

The winner? The Swiss franc comes in a close second, but the winner is the yen. That's right: the yen - - the currency with the perpetual zero (or near zero) interest rate. The currency where the nation's central bank will intervene to drive down its value, to prevent its exports from costing too much abroad. The yen is, arguably, the world's strongest currency right now. And the clincher is obvious enough: Japan's large current account surplus and lack of exposure to toxic debts means Japan's economic fundamentals are satisfactory: they certainly compare very well to those of the world's other major economies.

So - How sick do you have to be to Short the Yen after what happened / is happening to Japan this week? Oh yeah brokers have it in them.

www.fxstreet.com...

But what is really happening?

The USD is in bad bad shape. That much we know.

The Yen is the strongest. And Bank Of Japan is pumping in more money.

The rest of the world seems nervous. But are they nervous for themselves?

Yes the Nikkei fell 6% then 13% but c'mon - apart from Godzilla riding an asteroid - the market was dealing with a ridiculous amount of instability. And on the third day - with more bad news by the way - it Rebounded!

Now the G8 is having a conference call - hmm really? could it be about USD bonds and Euro bonds more than it is about helping Japan?

www.reuters.com...

Sorry I guess it's G7 now?

Anyway -

France calls for G7 financial minister, cenbank talks on Japan

(Reuters) - France said Wednesday that G7 finance ministers and central bankers would discuss the economic impact of Japan's earthquake, including possible measures to calm financial markets.

A government source said the discussion would likely take place by conference call before the end of the week.

France, which chairs both the G8 group of industrialized nations and the G20 club of rich and developing countries, also said it would propose a G20 ministerial meeting on future options for the energy sector after Japan's nuclear crisis.

"We need to be at the disposal of our Japanese friends on monetary matters," Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said after the government's weekly cabinet meeting.

Sorry but I dont understand how this works? what does it mean if its strong? what will happen next?

Originally posted by trusername

www.reuters.com...

(Reuters) -

"We need to be at the disposal of our Japanese friends on monetary matters," Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said after the government's weekly cabinet meeting.


I find this quote slimy and disingenuous. Am I alone?

I'll tell you who I want to be friends to Japan right now - Generator manufacturers and Nuclear specialists. They don't need bankers - they need to change the reactor situation because the heli drops look about as desperate as all G7 finance ministers unzipping and pissing on those 6 buildings.

reply to post by RizeorDie


G7 aid may come at the cost of forcing Japan to buy USD and EURO bonds. Selling toxic debts (US and EU currency) to Japan will help to buoy the First World's economy for a little longer, and it will help Japan in the short term, but it will bankrupt Japan in the long term.

Originally posted by RizeorDie
Sorry but I dont understand how this works? what does it mean if its strong? what will happen next?

That's exactly my point. It's strong. And money is coming home to mama. If you have a strong currency it is bad for exports - but hey - Japan may not need to export a lot for a bit. They will need to build, they will need cars, they will need food, they will need engineers, equipment, electronics...

Guess what - it may not be great for international investors in companies that rely on Japan, but what an odd way to put it that G7 has to help Japan with this.

Don't you think?

Originally posted by SmedleyBurlap
reply to post by RizeorDie

 

G7 aid may come at the cost of forcing Japan to buy USD and EURO bonds. Selling toxic debts (US and EU currency) to Japan will help to buoy the First World's economy for a little longer, and it will help Japan in the short term, but it will bankrupt Japan in the long term.

Absolutely but here's the thing. As bad as things are in Japan, and the jerking around with the markets and the news from their electric company etc. how do you force Japan not pull out of USD and Euro Bonds at this time?

Hmmm what could possibly make Japan not be the country that the world wants most to help at this time?

I mean a honking earthquake, a huge tsunami, another earthquake under the Mt. Fuji volcano, 200+ huge aftershocks... Such Acts Of God - such a horrible sad unfair - no blame series of events.

Oh wait...

Obviously if the markets in Japan are not reacting to this disaster, then it is possible that this disaster is nowhere near what it is portrayed as being in the media.

So then you have a situation that is not an "Act of God" - a manmade disaster that, although clearly exacerbated by the Acts of God - is a manmade disaster nonetheless. Hmmm Now we can start to blame someone. Now we can create sides - and when there's sides... there's money to be made.

Now the interesting part begins - this is a tricky one... so many PTB involved.

It's tricky - you have teams building before our eyes. Germany quickly says - We're closing all old plants.

Politicians in the US are jumping to sides of the line that will please their voters. And it's not an easy task as nuclear is this gray area between being awful and being "cleaner" when not awful - than petroleum for the left. And being more expensive than natural gas and being less invasive to lands of constituents than natural gas and "clean coal" for the right.

France is juggling a Euro issue (previous to this re Spain) and the Nuke issue at the same time seeing as France is a huge Nuke producer and proponent.

Originally posted by onequestion
Obviously if the markets in Japan are not reacting to this disaster, then it is possible that this disaster is nowhere near what it is portrayed as being in the media.

Now this is a very interesting point. How much is the US playing up the radiation? Maps showing simulations reaching Alaska and California.

US creating a larger safe zone radius than Japan - in Japan.

So - who do we not believe? The PTB in Japan? or the press controlled by the PTB in the US? or both?

reply to post by trusername


Ah, the problem now is not financial, but material. Japan must rebuild, but it must do so with a crippled power grid, irradiated capital, a displaced population and widespread damage to ports and refineries and other economic essentials. They need short-term aid in the form of funds, materiel, equipment and manpower. They will be deeply, deeply indebted to the West. Why? Because the G7 will offer an enormous aid package that the Japanese government will be unable to refuse without arousing the ire of the populace ("You refused aid at a time like this?! That's what our international allies are for!!").

I am convinced that this disaster will be used to the favour of the USA-EU-Canada crew of nations, who will infiltrate the Japanese system with their debt and capital. They will break Japan's nationalistic will, and make it into a more internationalist, global-thinking nation.

I don't think that's a bad price to pay for help during a disaster! National sovereignty is overrated - it causes so much harm to those not part of your nation. I am an internationalist, because I am a humanist.

EDIT: For clarification: Japan is pretty fiercely nationalistic compared to some nations, and it carries with it an uncomfortably unmodern racial ideology. The Japanese are one of the most 'racially pure' nations in the world, and many of the Powers that Be in Japan are interested in keeping it that way.

Certainly you have photos of a dire situation in that area. There is no doubt that this is not a place people want to be.

That said, very few people are there. And God save the people that are there - after all these miserable acts - it's the least she can do

Still the #s seem to be a little unclear - the limits seem to be a little .... loose... about what is safe. It's not an ideal situation. I think all the press - world and US at least have that much right.

Originally posted by SmedleyBurlap
reply to post by trusername

 

Ah, the problem now is not financial, but material. Japan must rebuild, but it must do so with a crippled power grid, irradiated capital, a displaced population and widespread damage to ports and refineries and other economic essentials. They need short-term aid in the form of funds, materiel, equipment and manpower. They will be deeply, deeply indebted to the West. Why? Because the G7 will offer an enormous aid package that the Japanese government will be unable to refuse without arousing the ire of the populace ("You refused aid at a time like this?! That's what our international allies are for!!").

I am convinced that this disaster will be used to the favour of the USA-EU-Canada crew of nations, who will infiltrate the Japanese system with their debt and capital. They will break Japan's nationalistic will, and make it into a more internationalist, global-thinking nation.

I don't think that's a bad price to pay for help during a disaster! National sovereignty is overrated - it causes so much harm to those not part of your nation. I am an internationalist, because I am a humanist.

EDIT: For clarification: Japan is pretty fiercely nationalistic compared to some nations, and it carries with it an uncomfortably unmodern racial ideology. The Japanese are one of the most 'racially pure' nations in the world, and many of the Powers that Be in Japan are interested in keeping it that way.

edit on 16-3-2011 by SmedleyBurlap because: (no reason given)

Totally agree with the comments on Japan idealogy on one hand. On the other, many young Japanese certainly embrace commercialism from the West in a way that makes every Californian Buddhist scratch his head.

As for how crippled Japan is, I think it will have all under control by itself - once the immediate radiation question is resolved. And that is because it is rich and it will hire contractors.

It does not have the manpower - that is possible. It has a lot of white collar people and a lot of %^*& to move. But it can certainly bring in contractors to help.

Unless... there is a big ugly reason why noone would go there for awhile.

You know I often look at every crisis and wonder hmmm OK where was the CIA?

This time I didn't. There was no way. Well - OK I wondered if HAARP ... but anyway... that's another discussion.

(Besides if HAARP was involved - I bet they messed up - I mean this many aftershocks were, hopefully, not in the initial design)

Anyway... if you were asked to find one spot - one little hole where you had to stuff CIA - where would it be? I mean if you absolutely had to. Don't just say... no way not here... Let's say as a game you HAVE to put them in the equation somewhere. I'm not suggesting they are there. In fact I sort of doubt it. But if I had to - I would say... the secondary fire in the plant 4.

That was the first time I said "really?" instead of "Oh NO! How Sad!"

And then started the news of the leaking in 5 and 6 hmmm

Ok - so then you could look at the timing.

The Nikkei starts when the work day ends PST. So you have the US financial markets that start at 9:30 in the morning. By 1PM Pacific Standard Time the DOW is done and yet California still has till 5pm for business to go on. 5 PM on the West Coast and the Nikkei opens.

The time zones play a bigger part that a lot of people realize. A lot of their news happens all our night long and the US markets wake up to a lot to digest and what we do controls little.

The first earthquake happened shortly before the close on Friday. They had all weekend to show how the country was going to react emotionally (or as it happens - stoically) to the situation. And they had a market before the US.

But, if the nuclear meltdown goes or has gone too far - how much of Japan will be inhabitable and left to rebuild?

Originally posted by mizd18
But, if the nuclear meltdown goes or has gone too far - how much of Japan will be inhabitable and left to rebuild?

If that happens - then this is all wrong. Could be anyway.

But if it doesn't. If levels are not awful like the officials say they aren't and the hype is all about the markets - specifically the bond markets - then that is another disgusting part of the story.

If for nothing else - the stress that this story creates for the people is unhealthy. And the officials keep saying "Remain Calm" - it is good advice - but it would stress me out more.

I would rather they say - honestly - the problems are being distorted because of the markets and the battles between the nuclear and fossil fuel industries - please remain calm. That would actually calm me, if I was there.

The other perspective out of this is TPTB vs The Man -

So the Man is like white collar bankers and brokers and investors etc. People with money - playing the markets cold heartedly. They are like used car salesmen buying stocks off one another - and knocking around Toyota and Texas Instruments etc.

This is not TPTB - these guys make small change off that - but the real money - the mega money is many times these amounts. When TPTB are rolling the dice - the Fed and the BOJ have to step in and add billions to the coffers. Treasuries aren't for babies and brokers - this is where you have a country like the US which is huge - in the world market - albeit gasping and walking on thin ice - still a huge player. You have France who is clenching the Euro. You have Japan with the strongest currency and the worst location.

England and China with a lot of accrued debt purchases watching with sinking feelings.

And this as the world tears it's eyes away from Japan and looks again at the Middle East - like the 2 year old in the corner that hasn't shut up the whole time mommy and daddy were fighting.

(and I don't mean that mideast struggles are any less worthy of attention - but admittedly they are a constant)

TPTB might actually be feeling a little strain. Maybe things have gotten so bad everywhere that it's not 400 families silently vs. the rest of the world. Maybe it's infighting.

money.cnn.com...

Oh my God - this article makes me laugh. I love how Japan says "cooperate" and the whole tone of the article is how grateful Japan should be that the US and others are forcing their wishes on Japan.

The truth is pretty raw here I think if you read this with even the slightest critical eye. The US is scared. Japan's market has stabilized - Japan's 1% change thursday is nothing in the face of what the country is going through and they may well pull out of US treasuries.

Sometimes the US sounds so conceited and condescending it makes me embarrassed to read the quotes. And this time it's Europe and Canada as well.

I don't remember everybody rushing in to "help stabelize" the US when the dollar was really strong.

and Japan may need to keep its imports for a bit - it has a lot to replace right now.

Japan's economy is stable and large, it maintains a consistent trade surplus, and its government debt is held mainly by domestic investors, with 95 per cent of Japanese government bonds in the possession of Japanese, meaning the country can finance its debts easily without tapping foreign investors.