Solar Max 2015?

Here is Hathway's latest Solar Cycle 24 projections.

solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov...

It has it peaking right around the beginning of 2014.

I personally think the projections might be off a bit. I think Solar Max could very likely come 2015!

Actually solar max is predicted to be in 2013, including on that chart.

Its always been anywhere between as of now in 2011-2013.. Solar Maximum could happen tomorrow

reply to post by AgentSmith


Yeah right towards the end of 2013 and near the beginning of 2014

His March 2006 projections

www.nasa.gov...

Had Solar Max 2010

January 2009 projections

climateresearchnews.com...

At the end of 2012 for Solar Max

Now with the update January 2011 one it is projected to be late 2013/early 2014

I still think most likely Solar Max will be 2015

To compare the start of the Maunder Minimum to our current day minimum, I have marked where the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 would be in 2015 as 15 years after the peak of the preceding cycle.

wattsupwiththat.com...

I have it peaking right around May 2015

Here is the big big clue! Yup, SOLAR MAX likely around May 2015

Well, as we speak, the Sun is messed up. It's not behaving as it should, so I guess solar max and solar min are unpredictable for a moment. It's strangely calm and scientists are baffled (or they're faking it...).

I checked the chart and the maximum is clearly in the middle of 2013. But take a look at the central line and notice the noise of the signal about that line. The prediction is based on a model and the data appears to be following that model - at least for now. The solar model may or may not be correct. That is why these predictions and observations are made. This is a test of the model used in the prediction.

So back to the forum which is 2012.

The only way that the solar maximum could be in 2012 is if the solar maximum is amazingly small. The predicted 2013 maximum is smaller than normal. A 2012 solar maximum would have to be smaller yet.

Again, 2012 theories are flops. No surprise there.

reply to post by stereologist


Sure it is mid-2013 to later 2013 for Solar Max according to that chart. But the person doing it is figuring it out by taking the solar minimum of January 4th, 2008 as the start. Thus, it projects at mid-2013 according to the chart.

January 2008 wasn't necessarily the start of Cycle 24. There was almost a 2 year minimum from that date that the sun barely did anything. Thus, better projections would be that the real start of Solar Cycle 24 was October 2009 when the Sun started to become a lot more active since then. Therefore, solar Max would be around Mid-2015.

reply to post by Stargate2012


I think you are missing the point in all of this. The chart is not based on guess work. It is based on a model of solar dynamics. And I disagree that the maximum is towards the end of 2013. The maximum according to the plot is clearly in mid 2013. This is not a case of drawing a line through observations. This is a based on a model of how the sun works.

reply to post by stereologist


Give or take mid-2013 to late 2013.

And this was said by another reseacher

Year of maximum is wrong.

Dr Hathaway has maximum in 2013. It will be in 2015, as foretold by the green corona intensity, and halfway through a 12 year solar cycle that started in December 2008.

wattsupwiththat.com...’s-most-recent-solar-cycle-24-prediction/

Solar Max likely will be 2015, more than anything. Again, Hathaway is starting it from the Jan. 2008 date and going 5.5 years out (half of 11 year normal solar cycle) to arrive mid-2013. If we actually take the real start date of it being Oct. 2009 that the sun started to become really active, than Oct. 2009 plus 5 1/2 years = Mid-2015

Look at this:

www.leif.org...

The swing up begun late 2009. As shown in that video above right around Oct/Nov 2009.

So guess what?.... 5 1/2 from Nov. 2009 = Mid May 2015

reply to post by Stargate2012


Can you point out the original statement by Hathaway. A blog that does not bother to report where it got the information is pretty bad.

Remember that the solar cycle is not 11 years in length. It is 11 years on average. There is quite a bit of variation in the length of time.

reply to post by stereologist


It is David Archibald that is commenting about Dr. Hathaway's mid-2013 Solar Max prediction in that article on that blog.

And yes, on average it is 11 years. Know that.

They even say too that even if it is solar Max in 2013, that there will be a period of very high activity on either side of the max.

But I am still guessing it is more likely Solar Max 2015 than 2013,

reply to post by Stargate2012


I know it is a commentary, but that commentary does not let us know which prediction is being used.

Here is another Hathaway prediction. This is for solar cycle 24 being in 2010.

Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.

"We don't know why this works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it does work."

According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.

That was from 2006. Later predictions push things back to 2012, then 2013.