Bush Optimistic about 15 point Kerry Bounce

George W. Bush, the "optimistic" candidate, has released the following memo on his re-election campaign website saying HE predicts a 15 point bounce for Kerry in the coming weeks making Kerry the far and away frontrunner.

Expected Kerry Bounce

TO: BC '04 CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP
FROM: MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF STRATEGIST
RE: EXPECTED KERRY BOUNCE

As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.

www.georgewbush.com...



I suppose the purpose of Bush promoting his expected campaign failures is so when he only goes down 5 or 10% (instead of the projected 15%) he can claim victory in his usual double speak fashion.

DNC head Terry McAuliffe isn't nearly as optimistic about Kerry's chances as Bush appears to be saying, "I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."

Let's hope Bush optimism pays off though.

It does sound like some Bush campaign pre-damage control. I sincerely hope this results in a permanent tip in the scales... we don't need four more years of the Shrub Disaster.

Pre-damage control?

You said a mouthful Byrd.

Kerry was still speaking just now to annouce his VP pick when Bush changed headlines on his website.

www.georgewbush.com...

JOHN KERRY�S SECOND CHOICE: Kerry/Edwards �04: �The Ultimate Flip-Flop"



There's hardly an image of Cheney left on Bush's website. It's all pictures of McCain. This is SO not the ticket Bush wanted to go up against.

REGROUP REPUBLICANS!

[edit on 6-7-2004 by RANT]

It's true that the challenger can expect two bumps: the VP nomination, and the convention. They are almost certainly to be neutralized by the incumbent's convention, so we'll be right back about where we were on Sunday.

And all that is important if you put a lot of stock in polls.