Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by muzzy

just checked usgs they got 5.8, no phase data yet

Can't have it in the sixes now can we!

I see EMSC has downgraded to 6.0. (Been told to?)

Edit: SC3 = Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika, Jakarta, Indonesia

reply to post by PuterMan

What a co-incidence, Scotland, watched a TV show last night about the islands of Britain, they went up to the Shetlands, on an island that had a huge volcanic plug, I was quite surprised, didn't say how old it was, but must have been eons ago when Britain was volcanic !

reply to post by PuterMan


Cheers

I've been having trouble with the EMSC's main list for a while, seems to switch around a lot, page 1 page 2 sometimes don't follow each other in sequence when you click on them.

3.5 magnitude quake hits Scotland today.
www.bbc.co.uk...

5.4
Date-Time Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 02:50:04 UTC
Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 05:50:04 PM at epicenter
Location 63.523°N, 150.806°W
Depth 12.3 km (7.6 miles) set by location program
Region CENTRAL ALASKA

Another Tonga quake, and this time the two Networks are the opposite, EMSC down low, usgs high , but thats because usgs converted it to Mw

1hr 29min ago

Magnitude mb 5.5
Region TONGA
Date time 2011-01-24 01:02:01.0 UTC
Location 19.07 S ; 173.61 W
Depth 10 km
Distances 845 km E Suva (pop 199,455 ; local time 13:02:01.8 2011-01-24)
285 km NE Nuku'alofa (pop 23,611 ; local time 15:02:01.8 2011-01-24)
62 km SE Neiafu (pop 4,320 ; local time 15:02:01.8 2011-01-24)
www.emsc-csem.org...
GFZ's result dragged it down for EMSC
2011-01-24 01:02:24.0, 19.65S , 175.59W, 59, M 5.5, A, TONGA, GFZ
2011-01-24 01:02:12.8, 18.00 S, 174.20 W, 68, Mw 5.9, A, TONGA, BGSG
2011-01-24 01:02:05.5, 19.14 S, 173.67W, 37, M 5.8, M, TONGA, NEIR
2011-01-24 01:02:04.5, 19.40 S, 173.59W, 10, , mb 5.8, A, TONGA, SC3

USGS 5.8Mw
earthquake.usgs.gov...
mb = 5.5 (121) ML = 5.1 ( 2) mblg = 4.3 ( 2) md = 0.0 ( 0) MS = 5.4 ( 18)

soooooooooooooooooo

both 5.9mb (from the earlier quake) and 5.5mb (from this one) both equal 5.8Mw according to USGS

buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut hang on a minute
when a 5.5mb is off Indonesia it only equales 5.6Mw
earthquake.usgs.gov...
neic.usgs.gov...
mb = 5.5 ( 42) ML = 4.8 ( 14) mblg = 4.4 ( 6) md = 0.0 ( 0) MS = 5.3 ( 1)

while I was on EMSC this came up

14 min ago

Magnitude Mw 6.2
Region TAJIKISTAN
Date time 2011-01-24 02:45:29.0 UTC
Location 38.63 N ; 72.89 E
Depth 80 km
Distances 213 km S Os (pop 230,410 ; local time 08:45:29.1 2011-01-24)
105 km NW Murgob (pop 10,815 ; local time 07:45:29.1 2011-01-24)

data contributions
24/01/2011 02:45:42.0, 38.67N, 72.34E, 172, mb 6.1, A, TAJIKISTAN, BEO
24/01/2011 02:45:37.5, 40.01N, 71.54E, 25, mb 6, A, KYRGYZSTAN, NEWS
24/01/2011 02:45:32.0, 39.52N, 72.13E, 25, mb 5.8, A, KYRGYZSTAN, NEWS
24/01/2011 02:45:30.6, 38.59N, 72.87E, 85, Mw 6.2, A, TAJIKISTAN, SC3
24/01/2011 02:45:29.4, 38.44N, 72.75E, 89, M 6.1, M, TAJIKISTAN, NEIR
24/01/2011 02:45:28.8, 38.7N, 72.2E, 39, Mw 6, A, TAJIKISTAN, BGSG
24/01/2011 02:45:28.7, 38.48N, 72.83E, 73, M 6.3, A!, TAJIKISTAN, GFZ
24/01/2011 02:45:20.4, 38.6N, 72.88E, 5, mb 6.8, A, TAJIKISTAN, GSRC
24/01/2011 02:45:11.2, 37.21N, 73.39E, 25, mb 5.9, A, HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN, NEWS
24/01/2011 02:45:06.3, 38.19N, 75.71E, 1, mb 6.2, A, SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA, MSO
24/01/2011 02:44:57.0, 35N, 75E, 1, mb 6.2, A, NORTHWESTERN KASHMIR, LED

I found the page with the contributing network name codes

LED Landsamt für Geologie, Rohstoffe und Bergbau,Germany
MSO Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Montenegro
NEWS Norwegian Seismic Array Norway
BEO Seismological Survey of Serbia Serbia
and the others you already know from the last exercise

USGS have 6.1Mw
mb = 6.1 (185) ML = 5.7 ( 10)
earthquake.usgs.gov...
neic.usgs.gov...

Earthquake in St George, QLD today - due to the amount of floodwater they have received lately?

2011 January 23, St. George, QLD ML 3.8 (Google map)
1940 UTC, 148.5°E, 28.4°S, normal depth
(Monday, January 24, 06:40 am AEDT)
This earthquake occurred approximately 45 kilometres south of St. George, 200 kilometres south of Roma, QLD.

Source

Originally posted by bkaust
Earthquake in St George, QLD today - due to the amount of floodwater they have received lately?

2011 January 23, St. George, QLD ML 3.8 (Google map)
1940 UTC, 148.5°E, 28.4°S, normal depth
(Monday, January 24, 06:40 am AEDT)
This earthquake occurred approximately 45 kilometres south of St. George, 200 kilometres south of Roma, QLD.

Source

made headline on CNN too ....

6.1 magnitude quake hits Tajikistan

reply to post by heineken


from that CNN link

Monday morning's quake was not related to an earthquake that hit Pakistan's Baluchistan province on Wednesday, Mehmood said.

OK so it wasn't on the same fault line, but how do they know that the Pakistan quake didn't trigger the Tajikistan one??
How are mountains formed again??
Oh yeah, from tectonic uplift
Duh
Of course it was related.

The Indian Plate is moving northward lubricated by the heavy flooding in Pakistan.

www.cbc.ca...

reply to post by Robin Marks

The Indian Plate is moving northward lubricated by the heavy flooding in Pakistan.

I would have to take issue with you on that Robin. For a start there has not been nearly a wide enough spread of water for it to 'lubricate' the plate and it would need to go right across Tibet and Bangladesh. Local possible, but in any event if the plate was 'lubricated' then there would be fewer large earthquakes and more smaller ones as the larger ones are when stress has built up. Basically 'lubrication' does not work like that. It is what happens to the fault once it is moving and not the cause of the movement as I understand it.

This article (PDF) like most these days is jam packed full of if and buts and assumptions and like many others gives me the impression that they have not got a clue what they are on about but it is good for the funding.

At 7.0 it states that so far in the paper the calculations are basically all theory - a conceptual overview they call it. Then, below table 5 they make the statement that "The approach taken in this section is to find parameters that match all the datasets". Mm, we know other people - scientists - who match data to what they want don't we. This does not inspire me with confidence in the document.

My overall impression of the whole thing is that it is a flight of unproven theoretical fancy with more if buts and maybes than a political manifesto. It also indicates no bearing on the initial movement, only the dynamics of the rupture during the slip. Having said that the next article I refer to does have something to say about fluids.

On the other hand this document has a much more realistic suggestion.

Melt produced by friction during earthquakes may act either as a coseismic fault lubricant or as a viscous brake. ................... We conclude that friction-induced melts can lubricate faults at intermediate crustal depths.

In addition further into the document there is a passage that states:

Increases in heat flow have not been found near active faults (6). These observations can be explained by low tf (4, 7). Melt lubrication is a possible cause of low tf, because solidified, clast-laden, friction-induced melts (pseudotachylytes) decorate some exhumed ancient faults (12). However, evidence of melt is not ubiquitous on faults, indicating that other weakening mechanisms may be important, especially in the presence of fluids.

There is also a possibility that powder could be a weakening agent in faults, but it seems again that most of this stuff is theoretical.

Here we present evidence for dynamic weakening of experimental faults that are sheared at velocities approaching earthquake slip rates. The experimental faults, which were made of room-dry, solid granite blocks, quickly wore to form a fine-grain rock powder known as gouge. At modest slip velocities of 10-60mms-1, this newly formed gouge organized itself into a thin deforming layer that reduced the fault’s strength by a factor of 2-3.

Keep the funding coming folks. We can keep on churning out theory for ever if well funded. You may think I am harking on about funding rather too much - but with regard to one of the documents I wanted to mention but could not even get to a reasonable extract, take a look at this:

£566K to Nicola de Paola for a project 'Fault lubrication during earthquake propagation in thermally unstable rocks'

Source

That is not an insignificant amount! This especially when you note the concluding paragraph:

The estimation of this parameter is out of the range of seismological studies, although it controls the magnitude of the stress drop, the seismic fault heat flow and the relative partitioning of the earthquake energy budget, which are all controversial and still debated issues in the scientific community

Then we have this:

Geologists say they have discovered that an ultra-thin layer of smectitic clay on rocks along deep, older fault lines in the San Andreas fault region provide important lubrication that permits gradual movement rather than earthquake-producing jumps.

Source. This kind of makes sense to me and is probably the most sensible of all the cr rubbish that is out there - well funded of course.

Whilst I agree that there is a possibility of a certain amount of 'lubrication' by fluids I don't see it on a sub-continent scale. What I cannot find anywhere is anything relating to lubrication of a fault BEFORE an earthquake, which does not really surprise me I have to say.

Of course to believe this you have to believe in plate tectonics and it is only a theory and unproven at that. I have yet to be convinced about this newfangled idea that did not exist when I did geology. It has some merits but there is a huge amount that is unexplained.

It’s been raining a lot, or very hot--it must be earthquake weather!
FICTION: Many people believe that earthquakes are more common in certain kinds of weather. In fact, no correlation with weather has been found. Earthquakes begin many kilometers (miles) below the region affected by surface weather. People tend to notice earthquakes that fit the pattern and forget the ones that don't. Also, every region of the world has a story about earthquake weather, but the type of weather is whatever they had for their most memorable earthquake.

See below for the source of this.

Finally Robin, and you should sit up at this passage:

You can prevent large earthquakes by making lots of small ones, or by "lubricating" the fault with water
FICTION: Seismologists have observed that for every magnitude 6 earthquake there are about 10 of magnitude 5, 100 of magnitude 4, 1,000 of magnitude 3, and so forth as the events get smaller and smaller. This sounds like a lot of small earthquakes, but there are never enough small ones to eliminate the occasional large event. It would take 32 magnitude 5's, 1000 magnitude 4's, and 32,000 magnitude 3's to equal the energy of one magnitude 6 event. So, even though we always record many more small events than large ones, there are far too few to eliminate the need for the occasional large earthquake. As for "lubricating" faults with water or some other substance, if anything, this would have the opposite effect. Injecting high- pressure fluids deep into the ground is known to be able to trigger earthquakes-to cause them to occur sooner than would have been the case without the injection. This would be a dangerous pursuit in any populated area, as one might trigger a damaging earthquake.

And who said this? You might be surprised when you take a look at this: Earthquake facts and fantasy.. So much for fracking does not cause earthquakes!

reply to post by PuterMan


Sorry, the flood and redistrubtion of sediments destablized the surface which allowed faulting.

network.earthday.net...

www.tectonics.caltech.edu...

www.livescience.com...

reply to post by Robin Marks


Your first link Robin is talking about the sedimentation - i.e. the weight of the sedimentation, likewise the second article also refers to the weight of sedimentation. The third article is along the same lines, but notes that there were more earthquakes in December to February and this was attributed to the monsoons. There are many other areas where this occurs - one being Greece and that is not because of monsoons! That aside all of these are referring to the weight and not the lubrication.

Your original comment was

The Indian Plate is moving northward lubricated by the heavy flooding in Pakistan.

It was that to which I responded and I have to say that none of the documents you have provided support the original premise. As to the earthquakes possibly being caused by weight of water and sediment, yes I would definitely consider that to be a reasonable theory.

What did you think of the comment and source re pressure injection.

Edit to add: Not being 'harsh' Robin, just analytical

Seems to be a series of earthquakes working its way down the Tonga/ Kernadec Trench/Ridge in front of Tropical Cyclone Wilma (oldest last)
5.4 2011/01/25 13:18:13 -29.985 -177.987 55.9 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 2011/01/24 08:37:45 -23.450 -179.764 534.1 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
5.8 2011/01/24 01:02:06 -19.143 -173.667 37.6 TONGA
5.8 (6.0) 2011/01/23 19:15:40 -20.323 -176.228 202.3 FIJI REGION

of course "these events are not related"

Stand by NZ

reply to post by muzzy


You have not by any chance plotted these completely unrelated events have you?

Is this something you have noticed before by any chance - thinking along the lines of atmospheric pressure changes triggering earthquakes.

reply to post by PuterMan


I knew you weren't being harsh.

I'm not thinking straight.

I think the Pakistani quake was a combination of lubricated faults, (imo), the rebound of from the wieght of the flood waters, and the moon/sun. Hell, there could have been an atmospheric element to the equation as well.

Global warming will cause an ice age.

I'm investigating the death of Ayrton Senna so I don't go crazy.

Don't know how long I'll be lost.

Almost forgot. Fracking will trigger the New Madrid Fault.

Glaciers flow on a super-cooled layer of liquid water. This high pressure water cuts channels. I like water.

Told ya I can't string together multiple thoughts. The midde-east is on fire. La Nina rules. Expect the unexpected. Forget about the 2012. You'll never forget this year. Stop.

reply to post by PuterMan

No not as yet, I'll throw something together, I haven't figured out how to do overlays on GE yet, the scale gets me every time.

further to post by muzzy


4hrs later

OK I didn't realise the Cyclone had tracked so far west, kind of throws out my suspicion about the pressure affecting the subterra movements. I think it was the initial track that got me going, it sort of matched the quakes as far as location goes, if not strickly time wise.
I spent well over an hour trying to find a decent icon for a cyclone for Google Earth, eventually got one of a Hurricane off Wikipedia and changed the colour and flipped it (rotation is opposite in Southern Hemisphere) to make it into a Cyclone.
All a learning curve, now I'm set up I can do it again.
What got me thinking about this connection was the match between the Loyalty Islands Mag 7.1Ms and Tropical Cyclone Vania 13/1/2011.

So here are my maps for TC Wilma and the quakes mentioned above (from USGS)

KMZ File

Interactive Map

Below is a screenshot of the Google Maps interactive version



As can be seen from the map, that last one near the Kermys wrecked the theory because of the longitude was too far east.

But who knows, maybe theres a rare quake due near Norfolk Island in the next few days. There was a Mag 5 there last year.
Or an increase in activity in the Bay of Plenty 28th-29th ................

reply to post by muzzy


Thanks for doing that Muzzy. I think that is very interesting and I would not be worrying too much about one stray one, it is as they say the exception that proves the rule.

Something to keep an eye on as it would be really good to manage to tie this in some way.