Peak oil critical skepticism

Peak oil in the drilling industry is used on a per - reservoir basis. All reservoirs are not connected. This is the ultimate flaw in the peak oil theory. Dichotomizing this even further, we should ask when exactly is a reservoir searched for and started production on. This relies completely on human circumstances, for one, economics. When the price is high more people drill, when the price is low less people drill. Economics is also very dependent on outside variables. I.e. The rate of consumption of oil, new ways of using oil, more efficient ways of using oil, government regulations and laws, all effect the incentive for entrepenuers to drill. All of these variables need to stay the same to get an accurate measurement of "peak oil", even if we assume all the earth's reservoirs are connected. This is a double whammy to peak oil theory.

Yet another hole in peak oil, and perhaps most importantly, peak oil relies on proven reserves. However we are proving more and more reserves exist everyday. Reserves are a "if we never found another drop of oil again" number. How can peak oil determine how much more oil we have, if it doesn't even know how much oil we have right now! We know it doesn't because there is so many factors involved, that all reservoirs are not connected, and we have not found all the reservoirs. It is logically, mathematically, and physically impossible for peak oil to answer it's supposed answer.

Peak oil relies on yet another fallacy, that the price of oil never increases during it's entire lifetime. As the price of oil increases, quite a few things happen. The most important of these consequences, are that our proven reserves get larger as the price increases. Proven reserves is a number based upon the cost to extract the oil, how much the oil is worth, and how much oil is actually in the reservoir. As the price of oil goes up, it makes more and more sense to make the reservoir "more" empty.

Yet another consequence against peak oil, is that as the price goes up incentive for newer cheaper methods of drilling become more economically feasible. Cars will start to use less oil as it becomes economically smart to save gas. Shale oil becomes feasible. Recycling oil becomes feasible. Cutting taxes and regulations becomes feasible. New drilling technology becomes a must. All these things further the point to which we "run out" of oil. All of these things, peak oil, ignores undeniably.

People ask why we haven't switched to electric cars yet, why we still use natural gas, diesel, gasoline. The answer is economics. It is by far the cheapest and most available resource we have to drive our economy with. When that changes, then you will see a snap to "green" energy. But don't expect it for atleast 50 years, and don't expect the pathetic electric hybrid cars and hydrogen fuel cell technology of today. When the free market gets ahold of something as essential as energy, it's technological advance is going to accelerate like you've never seen before, like it did with the industrial/gasoline age...except faster.

Peak oil, like global warming, is a scam to restrict competition on big oil. Politicians run on hard knocks for the oil industry, but then favorite their contributors and slap the ban-hammer on the small companies.

It's a little different actually.

I must say I do not claim or deny peak oil is a fraud.

What I understand is that our use of oil has grown exponential of the last decades.
Basically it means that when we reach a peak lets say 1000, which is the accumulative from decades of exponential growth. Oil production can barely keep up . The next exponential lift would double the number.

With an already declining oil reserve this would effectively end the use of oil. But..
A source is found that contains 2 times as much oil that is used during the entire oil era.We're OK are we...

No because of our exponential growth the entire source would be used within the time we use in beween the exponential rise.

In a thread I've posted a video from a lecture where a professor explains how this stuff works.
A real eye opener. I recommend watching it.

Peak oil and exponential growth. Everybody should know this !,

Feel free to bump.

reply to post by Sinter Klaas

Thanks, but frankly, I've seen the video. He also, just like peak oil, ignores changes in circumstances as well. As the population grows people naturally stop reproducing as much. All mammals and perhaps all animals have this built in to their genes.

Here's a famous study citing one possibility, John B. Calhoun. Increased homosexuality, asexuality, homocide, in mice.

To your point about increasing consumption rates, so what really? The economics behind oil are going to change, there is room to half, or eighth our current consumption of oil, even to almost 0. There are alternative energies, they just aren't economicly ahead of the vast cheapness of oil yet. When the price rises, in addition to the technology getting better, they will be, it's really that simple. Also, our production of oil is increasing with the consumption.

The biggest naivety with peak oil is that it naturally assumes current prices of oil, and current consumption rates for all into eternity. Realistically, as we run short the price will go up, consumption will thus drop, we will ration our use of oil, etc, etc.

Think about those mpg contests, where people are getting 100+ mpg. Are you telling me that people would pay $10+ a gallon and not think about buying one of these? Are you telling me that once the market turns it eyes on these extremely efficient cars, that car companies like ford aren't going to make one that gets 300 mpg? 100 mpg is childsplay, there is an enormous amount of energy in a gallon of gasoline. The reason we don't have miracle cars is because the consumer doesn't want them, to be frank, welcome to reality.

To put this into perspective, how many people do you know that drive SUVs that get 15 or less mpg? How many people do you know that drive 50+mpg bikes or diesels? It's reality, people are not concerned about how much they spend on gasoline, because they don't need to be, it's cheap.

Are you telling me big oil is not going to gouge prices when they feel they are on the last leg?

Peak oil is a big tangle of fallacies, and over-simplified reality.

No amount of reading about peak oil will change the fact that peak oil completely leaves out hundreds upon hundreds of important variables. It doesn't just incorrectly account for them, it assumes they don't exist, and there is no getting around that.

Edit: I'm not necessarily talking to you with all these points, I recognize you're a skeptic as well. They are rhetorical questions directed at anyone and everyone.

reply to post by venik88


Well...

I think peak oil will happen as we still are in need of oil and the need is still increasing.. I posted the video cause I felt it was related to topic, but I understand that there are changing factors. That does not mean oil isn't getting less and less.

Prices or just a load of bullas they are fixed all of the time

What concerns me is that whenever our need for oil peaks and we need more then there is available, this is basically death of our entire financial system. The system is set on groth and it depends on it fully and oil is the systems lubricant..

Oil isn't just used as fuel or energy source. It's used in a massive amount different industries which can not simply replace oil for another resource.

As long as the earths population grows and countries like China are catching up with the west the need will keep increasing.

That there is hardly any other motive then money to develop new alternative stuff, leaves me thinking that oil isn't running out anytime soon.

To bad this topic does not attract much attention. I think it's interesting.

We will see what the future brings. I'm curious where it will lead us

reply to post by venik88

Um the peak oil theory doesn't say we will completely run out of oil...it's about how prices will skyrocket once we pass the peak; demand will keep going up, yet the production of oil will start to slow down. If the price of oil skyrockets, it won't be a pretty picture.
The only thing about peak oil that can be disproven is the timetable for when it happens. It is a mathematical certainty that peak oil is real.