An ATS Alternative History: The other Bush wins... then loses

I love to read alternative histories (where you posit a small change to historical events, and project how the world might have developed differently from that point). This probably has something to do with how often I say the words, "It could have been a really nice world".
I think most of the appeal is that once you throw out a couple of random events, you can start building a world that actually makes some sense and maybe even has a happy ending (I don't want to spoil the surprise, but in history as it is actually happening, I'm pretty sure everybody dies at the end).
I thought I'd try to bring this kind of conversation to ATS for those like myself, who feel a bit outgunned in dedicated fora for alternative histories but would still like to kick around what might have been. The other nice thing about doing this on ATS is that you can use your conspiratorial beliefs as if they were a given, without too much second guessing from those who are more focused on actual history and "mainstream" views.


So here's one to consider...

November 1994 as we lived it: George W. Bush is elected to his first term as Governor of Texas. JEB Bush loses a gubernatorial election in Florida.

November 1994 as I propose: JEB is elected governor of Florida. George W. Bush is defeated by Ann Richards.


How does history play out from there?


My first stab at it:
1994: JEB begins his administration in Florida. George W. loses in Texas. He blames his father's preoccupation with JEB and begins pondering a run for Phil Gramm's senate seat from Texas in 1996, with no assistance from the family.

1996: George W Bush defeats Phil Gramm with the enthusiastic support of the religious right- the same force that helped an underdog Pat Buchanan win the Louisiana Caucus over Gramm that same year. George W. becomes the junior US Senator from Texas.

1998: JEB wins reelection in Florida.

1999: George W. gains national media attention when his outspoken role in the Clinton Impeachment Trial gives rise to accusations that he is trying to punish Clinton for defeating his father in 1992. He makes a strong religious argument for removing Clinton, making himself a favorite with religious conservatives but drawing enormous controversy from others.

2000: JEB and George W both seek the presidency. Their father threatens to cut George W off from the family if he does not withdraw before the New Hampshire Primary. JEB wins the Iowa Caucuses (instead of George as it actually happened), McCain comes in second, and George W comes in third. George W. drops out of the race and endorses his brother. When McCain wins the New Hampshire Primary (as really happened even with only one Bush in the race) it is blamed on the drama that unfolded between the Bush brothers. McCain then wins South Carolina, which had been projected for George W until he dropped out. McCain wins the nomination thanks to a popular perception of a corrupt power struggle within the Bush family. Gore defeats McCain in the general election. This is partially blamed on a rumor that McCain may not be a natural born citizen, due to a technicality in citizenship laws as they existed in 1936, when McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone.

2001: A New World Order plot to carry out a false-flag attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon is postponed because conspiring members of the Project for a New American Century have not yet attained the positions they will need to capitalize on the opportunity such an attack would create. The so-called "Gore Recession" dominates the early years of Gore's administration, which will probably end after 1 term.


2004: ???


So that's what I've got for starters. Feel free to chime in either with additions or other ideas of how things would have played out on the timeline already covered.

In the spirit of this thread I am going to say that Gore carbon trading emissions scheme was defeated by congress and by 2002 calls for a US lead intervention in Sudan to prevent the slaughter of people in Dafur . The UK and Australia are willing to join the US in a intervention that has no UN mandate . Else Prime Minster New Zealand Prime Minster Bill English * would prefer a UN mandate but would be willing to go it alone . Those country's are prepared to defend what they call decent standards of Civilization. Domestically the Republicans are bemoaning the UN but unusually quiet about the nature of the possible mission . At that same time The Project of the American 21st Century was meeting with its Republican backers in a smoked filled room somewhere on Capital Hill . Sudan they decided was a good enough substitute for Iraq as it loosely gives access to natural resource laden Africa and the Middle East region .

Gore quietly briefed Sec of State Powell the token Republican in his cabinet to prepare a presentation to the UN selling a intervention in Sudan .

* In this alternate history One time opposition leader and now current Finance Minster replaces Helen Clark as the then New Zealand Prime Minster .

Sudan would make an interesting starting place for a war on Al Qaida- Plus you get Somalia as part of the package and Libya doesn't get off the hook because even if they do cave in on their nuke program you can blame them for supporting the enemy and geography makes it plausible. That also puts Yemen higher on the list.

The catch is that without Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc running the show, you could easily end up with a more proportional response- 9/11 was horrible, but not all presidents will necessarily be willing to run up a six figure body count and a 12 or 13 figure bill to avenge a few thousand deaths, and you don't have an inside team to make sure it gets the desired result. Then there's also the issue that Sudan had already expelled Osama and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement. So here's where I would take that probably...

Starting from the UN's timeline of Darfur as found on wikipedia...

March 2003: Fighting breaks out in Darfur between government forces and rebels. Refugees start fleeing into Chad

January 2004: Aid agencies' response begins in earnest to help thousands of displaced

February 2004: The US, UK, AUS, and NZ field a total force of 10,000 troops to Djibouti and threaten to intervene if aid workers are attacked. Sudan allows a force of several hundred observers to enter their borders. US Sec State Powell begins working to enlarge the international effort and give it more teeth.

March 2004: JEB Bush, having made peace with his brother and procured the services of Karl Rove, clinches the Republican nomination for the presidency on Super Tuesday and begins criticizing President Gore for not acting more decisively against Sudan. Several times he makes reference to Sudan's former hosting of a terrorist named Osama Bin Laden, who most Americans have never heard of. He makes highly questionable allegations of ties between Bin Laden's Al Qaida network and the Janjaweed, and suggests (very wrongly) that the entire war would have been avoided if the US had accepted an alleged Sudanese offer to hand over Bin Laden in the mid 90s.

April 2: UN says "scorched-earth" campaign of ethnic cleansing by Janjaweed militias against Darfur's black African population is taking place

April 3: The UN Security Council approves a peace keeping and humanitarian assistance mission. India agrees to participate. A Marine Air Ground Task Force and a Carrier Battle Group arrive in the Red Sea. A reinforced battalion of Marines is the first force on the ground- they send a clear message that the international force is not to be resisted. 10,000 troops are moved in behind them from Djibouti. Fighting temporarily slows down. The Sudanese government signs a ceasefire, but the Janjaweed does not honor it and steps up its attacks in hopes of doing irreparable damage before the war can be stopped.

July 2004: Frustrated with the slow progress in halting Janjaweed attacks and the increasing role of the conflict in the presidential campaign, President Gore orders US special operations and intelligence to begin a covert offensive. Colin Powell secures a pledge of 5,000 additional troops from India to be deployed immediately. India becomes (officially) the largest contributor of forces to the effort. The US moves an additional 10,000 troops to Djibouti. Total forces in Sudan reach about 17,000, with roughly 13,000 more in support outside the country. Forces in Djibouti take on the secondary role of fighting piracy from Somalia.

October 12, 2004 (anniversary of USS Cole bombing): The USS Kitty Hawk is destroyed by a missile launched from inside Somalia. The missile is believed to be a Russian SS-N-22 with a conventional payload. Approximately 3,500 out of the 5,600 man crew are killed. It is alleged that Al Qaida acquired the missile from Syria (In reality, Adnan Kashoggi arranged the acquisition of the Syrian missile by a Somali Pirate group which fancies itself a volunteer national navy). Images of the fire fighting effort, which abruptly ends with the explosion of the ships fuel supply (Kitty having being our last non-nuclear carrier) floods the US airwaves.

October 13, 2004: An audio tape purporting to be from Osama Bin Laden emerges claiming responsibility for the attack on the Kitty Hawk, chastising the West for their involvement in East Africa, and vowing to resist the US "in Somalia, Sudan, and all over the world", despite having little if any presence in either of those nations. Syria claims not to be missing any missiles and denies everything. Conspiracy theorists immediately begin to question the authenticity of the tape and try to figure out the origin of the missile... but they've got less than a month to prove it before it's too late...

In this alternate timeline the NZ government has purchased a third ANZAC class frigate and F-16s have replaced the Skyhawks as the RNZAF combat air wing . For a moment it is worth exploring some of the events that run concurrently to what is mentioned above . The ANZAC task force is deployed with the governments of Aust & NZ expecting another flag waving feel good deployment like what was made to East Timor . In short those who warned of otherwise and those who wanted a smaller AATTV type deployment , all found themselves either out of a job or collecting there pensions earlier then expected .

Moving forward curiously on the same day as the sinking of the USS Kittyhawk Rear Admiral Melon * USN Ret published a book warning of the perils of modern day warships that are so lacking in armour and the fate that awaits the higher tech military vs the lower tech mass production friendly military . Melon had widely been regarded as a crackpot before the fateful day he had written articles for various magazines . He had also managed to maintain a friendship with Ron Paul despite thinking that the US should have an active participant in global affairs . Overnight Melon and his supporters are suddenly take notice of .

Meantime Gore knows barring Jeb screws up almighty that he has no hope of re election . To put the icing on the cake the Joint Chiefs(SP?) informed him that due to the 90's cutbacks in Defence spending means that it will be barley possible to bring the Sudan mission to a successful conclusion little alone deal with the Somalia problem . Republican Vice President candidate Donald Rumsfeld is sharing the airwaves with Melon demanding a new smaller , higher tech US military tackle Sudan and other hot spots .

The governments of Aust and NZ are arranging the logistics for there respective air forces to provide air cover for the ANZAC task force and the two countries special forces to take an active combat role . Rumour has it that pending the US election result a unit based on the Selous Scouts will be deployed to the ANZAC Task Force AO . Coming up to November on October 31st a Texas Pastor sends about thirty yes thirty container loads of bibles to Dafur . The religious right wing element of the Republican party supports the move demanding that missionary's be sent to the region in the hope that with god help it would become as American as Apple Pie . The incident reduces the Jeb campaign lead in the polls from twenty five points to ten .

* Melon is a fictional character if he can be replaced with a real life counterpart that would be fine .