Iran trying to provoke a war?

you're probably right about the brits knowing where they were and having good gps, etc. the trouble i think is in international agreement on where the border between iraq and iran lies, exactly. also, my own suspicion is that the british were probably using a similar route along the water for some time now and grew complacent. the iranians probably just chose now to make an issue out of it. the 25 turkish troops they detained at around the same time strengthens my feeling. but who knows?

koji K.

Given the latest devolpments regarding Iran I have no choice but to ressurect this thread.

My original premise was that Iran was hoping to start a war against the U.S. and its allies. Whle many discounted this theroy, I believe it was due to the misunderstanding of what I meant by war. In terms of an Iran U.S. cooalition conflict we would not be looking at a conventional war, but more of a insurgent type conflct similar to what the U.S. is facing in Iraq only on a much larger scale.
The first thing you must consider is that 80% of Iraq and allmost all of Iran are Shi'ite Muslims. The shared faith means that Iraqi shi'ites have more in common with the Iranians than thier own sunni countrymen. In addition the former Taliban regime if you recall is also a Shi'ite sect. So were Iran to engage the U.S. Cooalition they would have a huge number of insurgents in all three countries from which to draw thier forces.
The second thing to consider is that Irans millitary which is both outdated in terms of technology, and resources (other than the human kind that is) would last no more than a few days however as Iran has already stated its willingness to Martyr its milltary, and the fact that all Iranian military officers believe that thier death in battle against the U.S. Coalition would grant them instant entrance to pradise, the possibility tht the Military is nothing more than a sacrificial lamb to Tehrans ambitions can not be ignored.

In this thread we see Iran stating its willingness to Martyr its millitary
www.atsnn.com...

Third, in order for Iran to draw the U.S. Coalition into a region wide guerrilla conflict, there must be a groundswell of support amongst the Shi'ite populations of the region. The easiest way for Iran to achieve this is to draw The U.S. into a position in which any action they take will further incense the Shi'ite peoples. Perhaps holeing up in the Imam-ali mosque was not Al sadr's idea but the idea of his advisors to further thier leaders ambitions?

In ths thread we see that Iran has sent agents into Iraq to further destabilise that regon.
www.atsnn.com...

And here we see how sensitive the situation in Najaf really is.
www.atsnn.com...

However to really insure that all Muslms, not just Shi'ites are resources for tehran to exploit what better way to unite Islam than by making it a war not just against the "great Satan" but the L"little Satan" as well?

In this thread we see Iran Promising to destroy Isreali Nuclear facillities.
www.atsnn.com...

Based on the latest sbare rattling from Tehran perhaps the Iranians feel that support has grown enough to make this strategy tenable, or is about to as a result of the situation at the Imam-Ali mosque?
As this thread shows Iran has recently made an annoucment of a possible Pre-emptive strike against the U.S. forces in Iraq.
www.atsnn.com...

Now what would the motivation of Irans leaders be to engage in a war they can not possibly win in the conventional sense?

Consider this nightmare scenario.


Iran launches a pre-emptive attack on the U.S. Coalition shortly after Iraqi forces assualt the Imam-Ali mosque.
The U.S. predicably responds with a withering bombing campaign which destroys 90% of irans infrastructure and all military equipment larger than jeep size.
Ground forces enter Iran only to find that all, Iranian Cleric/lawmkers are gone to ground.
The U.S. installs (or tries to) a interim government similar to Iraq's. The U.S. finds it self fight a war against a guerrilla force in both Iran and Iraq.
Shi'ite forces in Afghanistan begin a stepped up guerilla campaign in Kabul designed to furhter destabilise the Afghani government.
The U.S. is now fighting an nearly invisible enemy that can seemlesly blend into the local populaton and enjoys the support of a large percentage of the population in three geographicall contigous regions all of which act in a unified manner..
Casualities mount as more and more soldiers are killed in ambush and hit and run attacks.
Eventually, as more deaths occur with any resolution getting further and further away, the U.S. Coalition pulls out of the Mddle east.
The Iranian Imams reemerge and declare that the land comprising Iran Iraq and Afghanistan has merged into a single united fundamentalist Muslim theocracy which has control of a huge percentage of the worlds oil reserve, nearly the entirity of the persian gulf, on of the worlds largest pools of soldiers and due to the wealth of the oil fields the financial abillity to easily become a first class military on par with china and the U.S.

Not to bad a deal for the sacrifice of few thousand soldiers, some outdated military equipment and a few years hiding in caves is it?

Originally posted by EastCoastKid
The mullahs in Iran are an enemy of the U.S. The people of Iran are not, sadly. They like the mullahs about as much as Americans do.

As far as the Brits boats and equipment being seized, one must ask the question, just what were those limeys up to? They were in Iranian territory and, please, they knew it. They were not lost.

I'm glad the Iranians let them go.

As for Iran agitating against the U.S., don't bet on it. They're not stupid. There is, however, another foreign entity working (up to recently) in the shadows, agitating Iran and Shi'ites. They are who and what we should be worrying about. They are masters at the art of deception.

Always ask, who benefits?

from what I understand and i may be wrong? Iran considers their border is at the shore of the river on the iraq side but Iraq considers it straight down the middle. I may have got that the wrong way round but it is not clear whether they were in Iranian waters or not but anyway they were released but the boats the marines were delivering to the iraqis were withheld.

there may be more to it than we are being told, maybe their were spying who knows but you can see how the problem arose

Originally posted by EastCoastKid
There's no way the Brits had strayed. They knew exactly where they were at, bet on it. GPS doesn't lie.

Interesting comments Phoenix. Very insightful.

um..........does anyone remember when the marines had an exercise a year or two ago and accidently invaded spain instead of gibraltar ?

I don't think Iran really wants a shooting war with the US/EU. It is a war of words. They have to know they could never win a war against the US unless they were promised backing (military) from Russia and or China (whether they support Iran or are against the US-the result is the same). They might be able to take out both carriers in the Persian gulf with firing 50-100 missiles each at them-overwhelming them. The problem is the US would retaliate in a horrible way-making the first gulf war seem mild by comparison.
I am pretty sure it is just words to warn of Israel and the US from destroying their nuclear reactor.
Another point is look at the losses they took in the war with Iraq over 10 years; they would be willing to again take losses that the US simple would not. If they out lasted the us-they would be the hero's of the middle east and be the #1 undisputed power in the region.

Originally posted by mrmonsoon
I don't think Iran really wants a shooting war with the US/EU. It is a war of words. They have to know they could never win a war against the US unless they were promised backing (military) from Russia and or China (whether they support Iran or are against the US-the result is the same). They might be able to take out both carriers in the Persian gulf with firing 50-100 missiles each at them-overwhelming them. The problem is the US would retaliate in a horrible way-making the first gulf war seem mild by comparison.
I am pretty sure it is just words to warn of Israel and the US from destroying their nuclear reactor.
Another point is look at the losses they took in the war with Iraq over 10 years; they would be willing to again take losses that the US simple would not. If they out lasted the us-they would be the hero's of the middle east and be the #1 undisputed power in the region.

Excatly my point Mr Monsoon, By sacrificing thier current military assets, a large number of thier population and hiding for a few years the ranian Leaders could easily emerge leaders of a country with double the size, people, and a far greater wealth, along with massve prestige in the Muslim world. The question s would the Iranian leaders be willng to sacrifice a large part of thier populton in order to be able to rule a land comprised of current day Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan?

As far as Birts boats goes, they were in the Iranian water and Jack Straw called Iran�s foreign minister and apologized but something that Iranian tv showed but I don�t think it was showed in US or Europe tvs was the equipments. Iranian tv said that birts were laying down some sort of sensor at the bottom of the river. I believe why Iran�s still keeping the equipment to find out what kind sensors they are.

They wouldn't jeopardize their nuclear program before they have a couple of operational nukes. Don't worry about it.