Peak oil and exponential growth. Everybody should know this !

Hi ATS

Some time ago I was confronted with a lesson from a professor called : Dr. Albert A Bartlett.
Which he gave in a lecture to his students.

It is actually easy to understand and I recommend everyone interested and even those who are not to check out the videos I'm about to post.

Luckily for us someone was smart enough to film and post this lesson on you tube.
8 videos that last for about 10 minutes each. I think that is pretty cool cause everyone can find a ten minute window. I did to and the result was that I finished them all later that day.

The most important video you'll ever seen.

Episode 1
Arithmetic, population and energy.



The poster on You tube wrote this.

1.4 million views for an old codger giving a lecture about arithmetic? What's going on? You'll just have to watch to see what's so damn amazing about what he (Albert Bartlett) has to say.

I introduce this video to my students as "Perhaps the most boring video you'll ever see, and definitely the most important." But then again, after watching it most said that if you followed along with what the presenter (a professor emeritus of Physics at Univ of Colorado-Boulder) is saying, it's quite easy to pay attention, because it is so damn compelling.

In the video.

The exponential function is used to describe everything that grows steadily, for example 5% a year.

He explains in the videos how you can calculate the doubling time and what it means for the future.
10 times doubling means that 10th time is 10 times more then what you had the 9th doubling.

Just like with the Richter scale that is used to measure earthquakes or the VEI index to grade a volcanic eruption. These are also exponential.

This is an old lecture and it makes a lot of sense to me. Don't know if there are any significant changes since...
What I understand is that he explains the basics about exponential growth. I don't see how that can change. Feel free to correct me. I could be wrong.

Again. Please give it a chance ? I'm really interested in your thoughts about this lecture.

For those that can not watch the videos. I have found his work in writing to.

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

ARITHMETIC, POPULATION, AND ENERGY ( extract.)

A site about him where you can find his work, articles, interviews and more.
All Bartlett Professor Emeritus, physics.

Please enjoy !

Kind regards.

~ Sinter

Thanks for posting Sinter

A great talk everyone should (be forced to) see

reply to post by Jubjub


You are very welcome.

Have you seen them all already ?

Peak oil will happen, and the global depression will turn into a global collapse. Just remember that the elite have suppressed viable alternative energy sources for decades, which only leads a sane man to conclude that this collapse is engineered as well... and that's only one tell !!

Join with like-minded individuals who are saving, learning skills, have talents. Start up an off-grid self-sustainable community and be set free from the coming chaos. This is what I'm doing within 5 years somewhere in South America.

Good luck everyone.

reply to post by unityemissions


Peak oil will happen I agree.

However, that isn't the reason for me to post this thread. I did because I think that this guy does not only explains how and why in an easy to understand way. It also works for countless of other subjects that steadily grow.

In the end steady growth will destroy itself.

South America ? Which part are you planning to go ? If I may ask of course.

reply to post by Sinter Klaas


Without a new frontier, yes.. We went to the moon nearly a half-century ago. Why did we stop there? Hmm....I think I know why..the "useless eaters" are not needed anymore now that tech/robotics will do all the grunt work.

I'm not really sure yet. Am working real hard and investing wisely to be well-off and able to run my businesses online, so plan on leaving the U.S. within 3 years. I want to spend several months roaming SA to find the best spot to start a village community. Then I'll spend about two years meeting people from all over the world in person and setting up the community just right.

I plan on having solar panels, wind tunnels, vertical hydro/aqua ponics, full algae/bio-reactor setup for a fuel source, etc.. on 500-2,000 acres. Will need two of each major profession, plus a lot of farmers.

Completely preliminary phase right now. Just started networking online with like-minded individuals who can provide skills + talent, or financial backing for the community. Let me know if you want in.

Sorry for derailing the thread.

reply to post by unityemissions


I think you have set up some interesting goals. I hope 5 years will work out.
Since 2012 still has to pass and such...

Don't worry about derailing to much. I'll end up doing the same thing on many occasions. Not on purpose tho.

This highly informative thread seems to be to ignored anyway...

Edit:
I don't think I would be an advantage in your community tho. The last thing you need is someone who makes visual eye catchers for promotional purposes.



[edit on 8/22/2010 by Sinter Klaas]

reply to post by Sinter Klaas


It's not what you do, it's what you can do. You're highly intelligent and perceptive ... not really judgmental. You'd be a valuable member of the community, imo. Don't worry about 2012. If anything happens, it'll likely be because the elite want to scare the piss out of people. I think there's a little more time left than that. End of 2015 is my marker, but I'm setting a 2 year before and after window from that point.

Anyways, the offer still stands if you change your mind in the future. There's still a ton of prep work to do before setting anything in stone.

reply to post by unityemissions


Thank you. I will keep that in mind. I've always wanted to leave the confinements of what makes up my country these days.

reply to post by Sinter Klaas


Hi SK,

If the thread does not draw too much attention it may simply be due to the 'crying wolf' thing in that 'peak oil' has been purported by someone who has enough brains to know/know better for many decades running. Since oil has not run out and yearly production numbers were growing right up too the point where bankers had so little trust left in each other than the system failed ( saved by the state, AGAIN) those who are looking for doom and gloom have mostly moved on too less well understood subjects where production numbers can not so easily be used to attack 'peak oil' claims of scarcity.

I am all for a end to the age of oil, or at the very least it's usage in a environmentally sustainable way ( yes, quite possible given a different economic model), but at current growth and consumption levels were going to be stuck with it for AT LEAST another forty years.

And no , i did not watch the video but i think we can all see the world as it is today and either accept collective blame ( meaning to accept that it's human nature to consume everything and to destroy the environment) or to investigate why some societies manages or managed to live in harmony with nature for periods that were sufficient to show that exponential growth is not a 'given' where human beings are concerned.

Thanks,

Stellar

reply to post by StellarX


Thanks.I get your drift, however you should watch at least the ten first minutes.This guy teaches a lesson that isn't specific for oil, but for everything like crime rates for example and how it is told to the public.

If you never seen it then do not skip this chance just because oil is going to last for a while.He basically tells why and how and not how and when.

Really IMO you will not regret it.

Thank you.

~Sinter

Peak Oil is a fraud. The earth makes oil all the time and the Russians proved their abiotic oil theory by super deep drilling their way to being the #1 producer of oil in the world.

Plus we don't need oil anymore as we can run cars and homes on the hydrogen from water as these guys are doing by running this 94 Dodge with 100% water! Peak Oil is a FRAUD! Spread the world.

www.project.nsearch.com...

I truly believe that any alternate energy that can compete with oil has been suppressed. Anyone hear the story about the guy in Japan who was killed by the Yakuza over it? It's a worldwide objective, no alternate until the big boys have had the benefits of the very last drop.

search.conduit.com...

and go to that site's home page too.

Peak oil is a canard. There is no evidence other than pure supposition.

reply to post by Hazmat77


It doesn't matter the topic is about exponential growth now try again and forget about the oil thing

reply to post by GlennCanady




Even if PEAK OIL is a fraud it doesn't matter due to the cumulative growth rate!!

So a 7% growth rate means every 10 years is MORE THAN ALL PREVIOUS USE OF ENERGY IN ALL OF THE YEARS OF ENERGY USE.

Our massive population is going to destroy us.

Even if oil isn't limited, food, fresh water, precious metals and other resources are.

reply to post by CB328


Everything we need is available. That man created a system that demands a payment and growth for future benefits, is our own fault.

We limit ourselves. Without the limitations of our own way of life, we would not have any problem.