The Big Bluff --US, Israel, the West not prepared for a new war in Iran

Since this is the Skunk Works I hope this is permissible.

For an op ed piece, it seems that the west is trying to make Russia back down on the completion of the Bushehr NPP. But Why?

Iran does not seem to be building any nuclear weapons.

Putin should complete the construction of the plant on schedule. (re: Ginger the cat)

Depends on "what kind" of war.

As far as another occupation - No. The two we have are two to many.

Leveling the place - Yes, to easy.

reply to post by infolurker


It's just an op ed piece by me. I have no direct evidence of my opinion. Not as much evidence as Colin Powell had when he gave his 4 hour testimony (not under oath) to the UN.

He actually held up a vial with something in it to point out the danger of an anthrax attack. Later it was proven that the anthrax could have only come from US labs. A "quisling" was named. The public forgot.

I don't really think it's they are not prepared.
I think it's more of "we don't have the manpower
to fight on 3 war fronts". If we did not have
troops in Iraq and Afgh, US Military would already
be in Tehran by the thousands.

reply to post by infolurker

Leveling the place - Yes, to easy.

Yes easy, but the Iranian response will end with thousands of American deaths (American soldiers).

American bases are all around Iran, with many within those countries occupied by the US ready to fight, waiting for support.

With Iranian support, much of the middle east will collapse from the empire, which is too much of a loss for the US to burden.

Originally posted by boondock-saint
I don't really think it's they are not prepared.
I think it's more of "we don't have the manpower
to fight on 3 war fronts". If we did not have
troops in Iraq and Afgh, US Military would already
be in Tehran by the thousands.

if they dont have the manpower, then they are NOT prepared.
and besides, if my aunt had testacles she'd be my uncle.

No #, or they would have walked into Iran same week as Iraq and Afghanistan...

Listen, USrael knows they cannot defend against hundreds of thousands of missiles at once... Half of Iraq and Israel would be up in flames.

yeah, I guess its been too long since I threw away Brezhinski's The grand chessboard- American primacy yadayadayda...

I don't get what the payoff is to take down that country, other than they are surrounded by Imperialist states of America now and theres a hole in the patchwork quilt of the M.E. Isreal is using US to create for them?

At least Afghanistan has a the pipeline now going through it and major poppy industry the Taliban was eradicating and Iraq has all these great oil wells and flat country (mostly) well and the ports to supply the occupation with.

But Iran? I guess its just the remaining threat to the solid, unchallenged control of the region? well the persian gulf coast of Iran does have a slew of wells... okay..


But much of Iran is just this natural great wall of china in terms of being one mountain range after another all the way to Teheran. (from the Gulf).

and the other liability is a shooting missile war retaliation of floating targets, er I mean super-Murrican warship strike groups... yeah, that's it.

oh yeah and Hormuz will be closed for some days/weeks whatever.

so what's the problem, then?

The problem is it takes money to start another war and this one isn't against a country with a battered military or Afghanistans Taliban super military. Iran may not have the high tech gadgets but they definitely will put up a good fight. I'd like to see the "New High tech" missle defense shields handle thousands of inbound targets. How well will the Battle Group defense systems handle hundreds of inbound "Vampires" all at once.

Who will lend the US and Britain and Israel the Trillions it would take to fight Iran. You have to figure at least a few very expensive Navy assets will be lost plus a disruption in the oil supply as they'll sink every ship in the narrows to block the Straight of Hormuz.

There's not much support around the world for a war with Iraq and the major lenders in the world are China and Russia who combined have Billions invested in Iran and Russia enjoys selling them expensive military hardware. So it's in both of those countries interests to have a prosperous Iran.

I believe Russia is going along with the sanctions to give a false sense of security to the US et al that they won't do anything if they start a war with Iran. However, behind the scenes they are ready to strike when the US and Israel get deep into it they will fuel a Muslim war against the West. It would provide a deadly blow to the US and any other country crazy enough to get involved. Imagine losing 10 000's of soldiers a year, how would the American people feel about that?

I'm sure Russia kept all those Cold War ties around the Middle East and they are still sided with Russian influence ultimately.

I to have been wondering if this is a setup,china and russia may have plans to arm Iran with nukes,and catch the US with their pants down,seems a likely scenario IMO

The reason Israel and the US lack the will to attack Iran, is because Iran has stated that they will go into a full out war. That means Israel and the US cant just fly in and bomb Iran's nuclear installations without the risk of a full out retaliation from Iran.

The US have the military capability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, but the US dont have the military capability to prevent Iran from retaliating. Iran's retaliation to a US lead attack can be very long term, and come in many different forms, not just in thousands of rockets.

I also hardly think that Israel can prevent even a fraction of Iran's missiles from hitting their targets. Israels and US radars can probably track most of them,but only target some! and hit even less.


The US and Israels vision is to be able to attack Iran's nuclear facilities without a Iranian retaliation. We all know that, that ideal of wishful thinking is highly unrealistic.



[edit on 27.06.08 by spy66]

reply to post by spy66


You bring up some good points. To me the last ten years seem like a big setup. Russia and China knew that their respective economies were going to take off as the US and many G8 countries were outsourcing the "backbone" jobs(manufacturing, etc) like crazy. Services based economies don't work well with large countries.

The US was borrowing money like crazy and still is. China was more than happy to lend the money. They can destroy the US by simply asking for repayment of their loans. This would kill the US dollar and launch the US into internal destruction with the total breakdown of society. No need for war.

Russia was more than happy to just stand by and let things unfold. Still postering themselves but none the less just sitting by and letting the US and other allies slit their own throats.

The War with Iran is when the end of the long term plan will be executed. The US military is depleted after a decade of war, this is no slight against the soldiers. Many reports have surfaced that the US war machine needs some downtime and lot's of money to rebuild itself.

Iran will be justified in retaliating against the US and Israel as they will be the ones attacking without justification. If Israel/Pakistan/North Korea have them why not Iran?(not that I think any of those countries having them is a good idea)

Deez