Noticing differences in live blowout feeds

I've looked at the live feeds daily now for weeks. Around 3:50 CDT today I noticed the BOP seemed to be slightly swaying, maybe 1 - 2 degrees off of 90. Then it would stop swaying. A few minutes later it would start again. I've been looking at this off and on for an hour. Maybe the ROV is swaying with current, but the picture doesn't look that way to me. I don't think I can embed the live feed so here is the link (Windows media player):
link to live feed Enterprise ROV2

If it is not swaying when you look, wait a few miutes. It may not look like much, but I've heard the BOP is 400 tons and any sway would be surprising.

Additionally, the Skandi Neptune Subsea 7 feed is showing what appears to be a large amount of sediment or drilling mud. Up until today I was seeing what appeared to be a lot of hydrates/clathrates bubbling up with oil or whatever, but not sediment like this, in the forefront of the video. Today it is different IMO. Here is a link to Windows media live feed:
Live feed to Skandi Neptune Subsea 7

I recall recently reading a thread that was written by an experienced driller (dougr I think). He stated that the BOP was very heavy with some stakes that held it somewhat in place once it's 400+ tons was set on the sea floor. But the main thing holding it was the casing pipe all the way down to the formation. He said if the casing integrity was gone, the BOP could start to become unstable. I have been on the lookout for this.
Any more experienced oilfield types care to comment?

Originally posted by 1SawSomeThings

I noticed the BOP seemed to be slightly swaying, maybe 1 - 2 degrees off of 90.

The pressures being exerted underneath the event have to be tremedous.

so what happens if the BOP falls or tips over(looking for a serious answer)????

I detect a slight swaying - if the camera is under water could it be the force of the water moving the camera ever so slighty, making it look like the BOP is swaying when really it's not ?

I notice the sway and hope its the camera - if not OMG - what would happens if it starts to sway even more or tips, it that possible? Scientist needed for this one please!

This is the thread that received a lot of attention concerning the integrity of the casing pipe being abraded for a long time with high pressure gas and sediment, and the effects on the BOP:
ATS thread with quotes from dougr from theoildrum.com

I hope the ROV is swaying and not the BOP. But as I said, I have been looking and not seen the swaying before. Also seems tilted somewhat.

I'm just saying that I for one will be watching it closely.

mfile.akamai.com...:45685.asx?bkup=49182

here you can see something getting knocked around by the plume.. Same color as the oil/methane but it's obviously something that's being attached to something.

the right side of the screen

Whoa was there just an blowout? Skandi Rov

[edit on 19-6-2010 by star in a jar]

[edit on 19-6-2010 by star in a jar]

From Alexander Higgins Blog:

Confirmed – BP Gulf Oil Spill BOP is Leaning!
http://(nolink)/2010/06/11/confirmed-gulf-oil-spill-bop-leaning/

Havent seen any close up shots of the leak today, me doesnt like that

Well seems Ocean Intervention III ROV 2 has the best shot atm, but its also the only stream thats lagging!

[edit on 20-6-2010 by trolleleet]

reply to post by trolleleet


Agreed.
Interesting that there are no live shots of the BOP going on right now. All cameras pointed at the junk floating in the water etc. Except Ocean Intervention III - ROV 2 displaying occasional still shots.
Live feed Ocean Intervention III-ROV 2

It looks like the BOP is tilted; does anyone know if the graph across the top is degrees deflection off 90 deg? It looks like it's indicating 126 degrees if I understand it correctly.

It also looks like the robot crane arm is trying to tilt it back toward 90 deg.

it would be nice to hear from experts on this.

reply to post by 1SawSomeThings


Havent seen anything to suggest that the ROV huds display degrees.

Im no tech on these ROVs but how would you even determine what is even level/90 deg under these conditions.

I guess thats why they frequently check those 3 ball things on the well to keep an eye on the tilting. The last video i saw it looked like it was tilting more then the equipment was designed for.

Still nothing to see on the cams, need some magma action or something!

[edit on 20-6-2010 by trolleleet]

If you look at the Q4000 live feed now it's showing the side of the BOP. There is a definite, pronounced lean.

This is seriously worrying.

Yes the BOP could be tilting, but let's consider that Oceans floor, I suspect it has weakening around the area which has been drilled. With that hugh amounts of pressure which has been released thus far, I see a depression in that area which will produce a bigger concern of mine, maybe yours to!

There is a Tilt going on somewhere.. Tough Call.

www.iris.edu...

Keep your Eyes on it!

Jesse..

reply to post by 1SawSomeThings

S&F

I wonder is they are using surface ships to pull it back to 90`. If not, they should.

Another thread came out today with actual verification from BP about this...


www.abovetopsecret.com...

It appears that the BOP is swaying a LOT more in this live feed. I hope some of you are looking before it cuts off:
Enterprise ROV I
Also:
Skandi ROV 2

In the Enterprise ROV I background there are fixed lights in the background that make it very apparent that the BOP is swaying, not the ROV. The Skandi ROV is swaying as well, at a slower rate. I'm assuming that's because it's parked well above the BOP.

Anyone care to observe and comment please?


[edit on 21-6-2010 by 1SawSomeThings]

Here is the link everyone needs to be watching...

realitycheck.no-ip.info...

Originally posted by 1SawSomeThings
400 tons and any sway would be surprising.

I myself had been saying that the BOP was around 450 tons, saw it on some site that described this particular BOP model. But then I've seen it reported to be 40 tons in a MSM news report, so I don't know what to think. 450 tons does seem like it might be too high, whereas 40 tons seems slightly light, but who knows. I've not taken any time yet to find out for sure, I suppose it just doesn't matter at this point.

The other day someone said they thought the flow rate had increased, and it didn't appear that way to me, it looked about the same as it had for the last week or so. But I got on the computer here a while ago and it does look to be puking out more than about 12 hours ago. I suppose if things do not remain the same below (i.e. erosion at the break points in the well), the flow rate can likely very from time to time, as well as the BOP swaying a bit back and forth as the Earth around it erodes.

That well is without a doubt eroding away and it's just a matter of time before it blows open a sinkhole (just as broken water mains can do).

Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
Here is the link everyone needs to be watching...

realitycheck.no-ip.info...

Excellent site to see the feeds and get some instant info.

I thought I saw a four leg stabilization system at the base of the well 3 weeks ago, which showed wobbling back then.

The viewers there confirmed it for me. It must be in bad shape now as there is no more rov cams showing it.