One eye on the Gulf, the other on the Atlantic: 60% chance of TS forming within 48 hrs

800 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

I'll be keeping track of this, let's hope it falls apart, not grow into a hurricane.

But even a small tropical storm could have serious consequences.

With the way things have been going, though, I suspect we'll see the invocation of the umpteenth corrallary to Murphy's Law:

"There's no situation so bad it can't get worse."

Ugggh.

[edit on 13-6-2010 by apacheman]

[edit on 14-6-2010 by apacheman]

Great. Now everytime a storm or depression develops, apparently even thousands of miles away out in the Atlantic, we'll 'need' a new thread or 3 to rouse panic. May this 30% chance thread get 487 flags, 1540 comments, and make the front page tomorrow...

It's a shame those BP idiots haven't sealed the thing and moved on, because normally huge storms actually clean up a spill. If a major storm did sweep in they'd have to disconnect whatever rigs they have hooked to that thing and it would be counter productive.


Suggestion: How about you change the title now to 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Watch Thread, so that we dont have to see hundreds of these threads all year every time someone hears thunder. It isnt too late to do this, apacheman.


[edit on 13-6-2010 by IgnoranceIsntBlisss]

Here is a really good weather site
with many related things like air quality (well weather related anyway)

www.intellicast.com...

If this storm forms and causes aggrivation to the oil situation then everyone will know to watch for the next one

It will take one to happen to know for sure so I think it is a giid Idea to watch how it goes

Thanks for the post - I know we do have to watch the weather conditions, it will have an impact on lives.

If an actual tropical cyclone does develop in the next 48 hours it will be the record breaker for furthest storm to develop east in the month of June. This system is defying climatology as it has been organizing in area of high upper level wind shear. Regardless of development of this system it tells those of us who really watch tropical weather that we could be in store for one hell of a hurricane season.

I've seen less impressive storms classifed as a depression. This is defying climatology.

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

i wonder if a lightning strike would ignite the oil. if it does you can be damn sure HAARP was behind it.

200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Keeping watch.

And fingers crossed.

800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

Not looking as good as it might..let's hope it falls apart overnight.

200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

A little good news...not much, but I'll take what I can get these days.

Hopefully it will continue to weaken.

I'll keep updating as they release reports.

reply to post by Smurfwicked


I was thinking that it was abnormally close to Africa to be forming an actual storm this early in the season. Typically, the storms that come rolling off Africa don't happen until later in the season when the water is warmer.

Or, at least that's what I always heard when I lived in Key West.

This is valid information to have and to share. Thanks, OP. We all have a right to post here, even if some individuals don't want to read about it. Perhaps if one isn't happy with the topic of a thread it should just be ignored. Just a friendly thought.

currently it says a 50% chance.

Lets hope it doesnt grow into a Hurricane.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

g

200 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Looks like we've dodged a bullet on this one, thank goodness.

Hope I haven't spoken too soon, every day without storms is a gift right now.

reply to post by DOADOA


a buddy of mine died in an 18 foot fiberglass runabout
Lightning went through the whip jumped to the steering went throught the seat mount out his chest into the throttle down the line and out through the drive
if the boat had been sitting in a flamamble liquid...
with that amount of juice
?

Originally posted by DOADOA
i wonder if a lightning strike would ignite the oil. if it does you can be damn sure HAARP was behind it.

that would be some expensive and complicated way to set the oil on fire

someone tell bp a match will work also

but with all the corexit dispersant it will be hard to set on fire
because most of the oil is beneath the surface