Oil Complicates Forecasts On Hurricane Season Eve

reply to post by KilluminatisRex


Let's just say that your source is accurate on the 122 degree water temp needed for a "hypercane". As of May 18, the warmest surface temperature recorded in the Gulf of Mexico was a whopping 87 degrees fahrenheit. This 87 degrees fahrenheit is only confined to very small "spots" on the surface, not nearly large enough to either spawn or sustain a hurricane, much less a "hypercane". There is absolutely zero chance that a big enough swath of the sea surface will heat up that much due to the oil. First off, the oil is interspersed. Secondly, the water around the oil is whisking the heat away from the oil. It would take much more than this current oil spill to get a large enough swath of the sea surface to heat up to the extremely high tempeture of 122 degrees fahrenheit needed to sustain a hypercane.

Gulf of Mexico sea surface tempeture source: marine.rutgers.edu...

I hope this may help to ease your anxiety.

--airspoon






[edit on 31-5-2010 by airspoon]

They (NOAA) starts instilling hurricane fear here in Florida in March. Preparing/instructing/fearing us how there's only 3 more months until hurrican season!


Fear. Fear. Fear. Nothing different at all except we have oil-lace fear this year!

It's ridiculous!

What can we do about it anyway? Prepare? How?

Makes me wonder if they're deliberately predicting a 'fix' on this spill- situation for August. Gives them 3 months to really get people fearful and/or.....get HAARP situated just right!



[edit on 31-5-2010 by One Moment]

reply to post by One Moment


That "fear" is much warranted. I don't know about you but I have been through hurricanes before and they are quite destructive. I do subscribe to the idea that the MSM and our government instills fear in the population but I don't think they are doing anything wrong when it comes to warning people about hurricanes.

--airspoon

Originally posted by airspoon
reply to post by One Moment

 

That "fear" is much warranted. I don't know about you but I have been through hurricanes before and they are quite destructive. I do subscribe to the idea that the MSM and our government instills fear in the population but I don't think they are doing anything wrong when it comes to warning people about hurricanes.

--airspoon

But we know we live in a hurricane area. Why start the fear-mongering? Again, we're AWARE that they are possible. It's like warning people in Colorado that they might get a snowstorm.

What is the purpose? Most people know to have candles, water, canned food, batteries etc. and when we 'see' a hurricane coming, we fill our tanks with gas.
So short of that, what more is there to be done?

Yes! Tell us when one forms and has the potential to hit us but why start this crap in March?

Fear fear fear fear. That's all the MSM does. Churn out fear!

And WHY tell us how this oil spill will really reek havoc on us?
Again, what more can we do (other than stock up on provisions)? We're screwed unless of course they're prepared to relocate this entire state somewhere else.

But I suppose if they feel they're 'preparing' (fearing) us, they've done their part!

Since we have the technology to tell people what might happen with the weather (hurricane, tornado, etc.) its good to remind them of what to do. People relocate to new areas all the time and may not be aware of what to do to prepare for a storm. I don't think this is to instill fear on people or cause a panic - its just good sense.

reply to post by crazydaisy


I have to agree. People seem to not think about it unless it is in their face. Sure it might be over-played a little but I sure don't aiken it to fear mongering.

--airspoon

reply to post by airspoon


In all due respect, I would wager a guess you're not from Florida!

What needs to be done is, remind and move on to tangible things.


The news-media has free license these days to promote fear like never before.

"The worse hurricane season predicted" and that was last year. Not one hit us. So? What was gained? More generators bought by people who really couldn't afford them?.

Stop predicting!! Just alert us when the storm-cell is there. Not the probability of it happening. People become deaf to all the town-criers!

Yes! It's possible. Anything is possible. This 'oil' can potentially cause havoc but so can a Pole Shift.
And what's compounding my frustration with this whole thing is....what the HECK do they expect us to do about it? Buy an oil-proof umbrella? I mean really.
Stop this forecasting/predicting/fear-mongering crap already and just FIX THE LEAK and tell us when a hurricane if forming!

I was just watching PBS and Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrator, was talking about the potential crisis from a hurricane in the gulf with our current oil spill. She said it herself, that this was likely to be an above average season and that any hurrican whose path runs through the oil, has the potential of poising the land, far inland, from where the hurricane touches ground. She was saying that a hurricane will most like bring the oil to stain the coast, wherever the hurricanes reach land. This is exactly what I was thinking.

Think about that for a second. Drinking water, farming, freshwater habitats and even dry land habitats.


--airspoon

reply to post by airspoon


I live on the Texas coast...in 1979 padre beach was full of oil from the ixtoc spill....a hurricane came and cleaned off all the oil from the beaches....so a hurricane can be a Good thing

Also, there is no such thing as "oil Rain" its just not possible...crude oil does not evaporate

and also the oil will not make the storms stronger

reply to post by Goradd


There are a few differences between the BP spill and the ixtoc spill, including the size and volumes between the spills. Also, the large plumes of oil that seem to be hovering beneath the surface in the BP spill, most likely due to the depth of the ruptured well.

Oil has different densities and viscosities so what might have "worked" with one type of oil, may not with an oil of a different density and/or viscosity. Also, the oil may have been cleaned from the beaches but it surely didn't just disappear.

As far as "oil rain", AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi says that it certainly is possible for oil droplets to become airborne and move inland. He then states, "The possibility of 'oil rain' is a whole new environmental effect to worry about, especially if a storm were to move inland and rain itself out across the United States".
Source: thefastertimes.com...

Furthermore, it's not just the oil that we need to worry about, it's also the chemical dispersants that are being liberally applied in that region. While the toxic chemicals and crude oil certainly won't evaporate with the water, the convection system of a hurricane is completely different and all bets are off.

We have to remember that a hurricane doesn't work like a normal storm, where the rain is coming from evaporation, rather it lifts water up into the spiral through convection, meaning that it would pick the toxic chemicals up with it. So, while I wouldn't worry too much about a normal storm crossing the region, a hurricane would be completely different. Of course the oil wouldn't be picked up with the water through evaporation but it very well could be picked up through convection. This is not even mentioning the toxic soup that could be pushed onto shore by the hurricane.

--airspoon

The oil from the ixtoc spill was a lot further from the US coast and had weather a lot more.
The oil from the BP spill being closer has a lot more volatiles in it and is not as weathered.

The oils would be almost fresh if blown ashore by a hurricane.
and a lot more flammable.

Old weather oil is like tar and would do a lot less damage then fresh oil that is thin and light.

I don't know exactly know what a hurricane will do to the oil. All I know is that it isn't going to make it go away. And judging by this oil spill tracking map I would say it doesn't matter where the storm starts or goes, any storm will have drastic effects on the entire Gulf of Mexico and about 65% of all land that touches it. Either from storm surge spreading the oil or the hurricanes picking up dispersants and spreading them. We are in tough times to say the least.....

reply to post by airspoon


During the Ixtoc spill hurricances past right over the spill and no oil was lifted up into it and there was not oil rain when it hit texas....again all this has happened before....

Hurricanes do not suck up the water as u have stated...they are fueled by the water vaper that interacts with cold and warm air...

Also i don't see how a Hurricance will affect under sea oil when hurricanes are just at the surface...unless u believe the plumes of oil are right at the surface.....

so i truly doubt any of this oil rain stuff that's going around...we'll just see what happens