Future market chart, pattern match and TimeWave

I am posting this pattern match chart and TimeWave correlation.

Time will tell if it is in any way accurate. Things start to really heat up in August. The black line on the chart is where I think it will go.



It also contains a McKenna TimeWave overlay. This may look as though there is no real correlation. The TimeWave chart is a measure of novelty (or rate of change) and not a 'value' as such. So when it falls, change or novelty rises. Big events happen.

The other aspects of the chart use a repeating pattern found within the chart to predict the future market direction. As I said before time will tell where this goes.

[edit on 28-5-2010 by Pentothal]

Sorry, but I just don't see what pattern you are trying to point out.

Good connection. I haven't thought about compairing timewave to the markets. S+F

I do see some correlations between the 2 graphs. Some might say the market needs to drop agian to form a "W" type recovery. On this graph it doesn't show any type of recovery. Of course timewave doesn't show us "what's next".

It appears that you compressed some of the graph in the last picture. I don't get that part? Also, just so I'm clear, what Timewave end date are you using?

reply to post by Phil C Hickus


The TimeWave dates are as per the graph. They are overlayed using the same dates.

Do not compare the shape of the TimeWave output with the shape of the market. The shapes do not match. The significance is that the TimeWave falling down indicates a time of increasing change or as McKenna puts it 'novelty'. The TimeWave just indicates the timing of significant historical events.

The 2 large dips into novelty correspond to the time of the beginning of the credit crunch and also another dip into novelty to come. This upcoming indicator of change could indicate the timing of market change again.

reply to post by Pentothal



You went to a lot of work.

The only difference is one was at an all time high while this time we are about 500 handles short on the sp.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


The values on the TimeWave overlay are insignificant to the point. The significance lies in the upwards and downwards movements in the TimeWave. Falling down indicates a time of increasing change or as McKenna puts it 'novelty'. The TimeWave just indicates the timing of significant historical events. Down = something big happens. Up = things are calming. Flat = things remain the same situation.

The 2 large dips into novelty correspond to the time of the beginning of the credit crunch and also another dip into novelty to come. This upcoming indicator of change could indicate the timing of market change again.

It is really interesting and I have thought about this before but I am really confused with these charts. The black line is the time wave? Or the green shaded area? Where did you get that timewave count because I think I've seen a different one? Thanks.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


The TimeWave is the green shaded area. It is overlayed and aligned using the same dates as the markets on the chart.

The premise of the TimeWave is that time is fractal in nature (i.e. there are repeating aspects nested within). With this in mind there is also a correlation within the market chart.

The first chart shows the market to date.

The second shows the area March 09 - May 10, that has similarities to the area Jan 07 - Jan 08.

The third takes this area and moves it back beneath the area where the markets acted in a similar way.

Jan 08 - March 09 is then moved and appended to the present day to show possible future market reaction (based upon actual past market reaction).

TimeWave (green area) is overlayed to indicate areas of high novelty or acceleration of change/big events. This uses the same dates as the chart. This is a Watkins/Kelly chart.

The black line is my own guesstimate based upon the two charts (past events overlay and TimeWave).


[edit on 29-5-2010 by Pentothal]

reply to post by Pentothal


Are you actually playing this as in shorting the ES contract then? Or just for fun?

Foreclosure Crisis Spreads Across U.S. as Idaho Defaults Mount





[edit on 12-8-2010 by Pentothal]

How about that humongous dip at 11th August, but nothing major happen so far. I'm just gonna wait and see for now. Let's just say, timewave "credibility" is in question right now.

Originally posted by Jazzyguy
How about that humongous dip at 11th August, but nothing major happen so far. I'm just gonna wait and see for now. Let's just say, timewave "credibility" is in question right now.

What huge dip? The dip was tiny. It all depends on what scale you are looking at.

Take a look at the span of time 01.01.10 to 21.12.12 and then you will be looking at large scale changes in novelty. Where is the "humongous dip at 11th August" when you look at the wider scheme of things?

If you look at a day to day scale then you will get a level of change on the chart that is relative to that scale. Look at about a 3-5 year resolution. These are the world changing events.

Using the Watkins or Sheliak charts there is the single biggest dip that is left on the chart beginning this fall and ending early 2011.

www.timewave2012.com...

[edit on 12-8-2010 by Pentothal]

If one is able to move the data-set to conform to one's concept, the resulting data-set is void. There is no correlation without manipulating the stock chart or the 'timewave'.

You get an A for effort, though...

Originally posted by atlguy
If one is able to move the data-set to conform to one's concept, the resulting data-set is void. There is no correlation without manipulating the stock chart or the 'timewave'.

You get an A for effort, though...

I have not 'moved the data-set' as far as I can tell. It is generated by the software and is not altered by me in any way.

I do not have any concept as such. I did notice the correlation however. Time will truely tell. Let us see how things pan out between now and Feb 2011. The charts have been on here for a while for everyone to see. As McKenna said, it could all be horse s***.

[edit on 12-8-2010 by Pentothal]

Originally posted by Pentothal
Using the Watkins or Sheliak charts there is the single biggest dip that is left on the chart beginning this fall and ending early 2011.

www.timewave2012.com...

Which version in the right one then? Let me guess, the 14th November one.

Originally posted by Jazzyguy
Which version in the right one then? Let me guess, the 14th November one.

Beginning approx 11th November 2010.

The red chart (Sheliak) is a more gradual decline. This is somewhat misleading. The lower the chart the higher the rate of change or novelty. So 'more' happens the lower the chart. So the rate of change/events is increasing.

[edit on 12-8-2010 by Pentothal]

reply to post by Pentothal

Fine, so you're using watkins, and the dip in sheliak is 'misleading'. That other dude is using kelley, which is where I got the 14th November date. Since you also say that it's going to be around 11th November, let's just wait till november, shall we?

I still think something should have happen around this august, but apparently we still have to wait some more.

Originally posted by Jazzyguy
reply to post by Pentothal

 

Fine, so you're using watkins, and the dip in sheliak is 'misleading'.

Poor explaination by myself. What I was should have said was that they both end up in the same low at the same time. They broadly indicate a low of the same date though they look completely different; So I used the word 'misleading', poor choice.

That other dude is using kelley, which is where I got the 14th November date. Since you also say that it's going to be around 11th November, let's just wait till november, shall we?

Watkins and Kelly give identical charts for the time in question. The 14th is correct. I said 'around' the 11th. At that view scale the difference is a pixel or two depending where you click on the chart. Over a 3 or 4 month period it is unimportant. We are talking trends not the flick of a switch or a single event but the gaining of momentum in a series of events.

I still think something should have happen around this august, but apparently we still have to wait some more.

If you look at the last chart you can see the scale of novelty change in the so called 'humongous' august event. I have never even heard of this august date until I read it here. It did not register with me as an important date. If you zoom in and look at a 3 day stretch then you will get what look like huge dips. They look huge because you are zoomed in to them. Look at them in the context of a 3 year peroid and they dissapear. As the chart shows, the big august dip is hardly visible.


[edit on 12-8-2010 by Pentothal]

Just out of curiosity I looked at the 8th-11th August.

Here is the DOW with the Watkins overlay (green).



Pretty relevant for that day.


[edit on 12-8-2010 by Pentothal]

reply to post by Pentothal


Sorry.. but imo .. the time wave looks absolutely NOTHING like the DJA........?

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by Pentothal

 

Sorry.. but imo .. the time wave looks absolutely NOTHING like the DJA........?

I agree, it is not supposed to.