The unfolding "Scud Missile" crisis between Israel and Lebanon

Many posters of ATS in the past have analyzed the emerging situation in the middle east vis-a-vis Israel, Iran and Syria. Many of them came to a consensus that any regional war involving Israel, Iran and Syria will be initiated by a limited conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. The latest crisis unfolding in Lebanon threatens to do just that.

Syria arms Hezbollah with Scud missiles

American and Israeli elements believe that Syria has transferred long and medium range surface-to-surface Scud missiles to Hezbollah which could target most of Israel's territory.According to the report, which is based on American sources in Washington, Israeli and Western intelligence services have discovered that the Syrian army has been training Hezbollah operatives on how to operate a line of missiles from Syria's weapons arsenal including anti-aircraft and medium-long range Scud missiles.

Hezbollah has therefore become the only non-governmental organization in the world to hold such weapons

It should also be noted that Israel is currently abstaining from taking any step which would divert international focus from Iran sanctions

According to the above report, Syria has apparently armed Hezbollah with medium and long range Scud missiles. Considering the urgency of the situation, Washington has even summoned Syrian ambassador for consultations.

'Scud Crisis' Threatens War between Israel, Hizbullah

A "Scud Crisis" is threatening to ignite an all-out war between Israel and Hizbullah, the Kuwaiti al-Rai newspaper reported. The daily said that Syria has delivered to Hizbullah Scud missiles, sparking a behind-the-scenes crisis after Israel informed Washington that "it will take steps if the U.S. didn't find a solution to what the Jewish state considers a threat to its security."

The following links does indeed show that the level of activity of Israel with respect to Hezbollah has increased.

Israel Warns Nationals of 'Imminent' Kidnap Risk

Israel warned its nationals on Tuesday that there was an imminent risk of kidnap attempts against holidaymakers in the neighboring Sinai peninsula in Egypt.

Israel's anti-terrorism unit said it had "concrete information" about an "imminent risk of a terrorist abduction operation."The anti-terrorism unit cited "threats from Hizbullah and Iran."

Israeli Troops Forced 'Back' Following Lebanese Army Warning

If we try to connect the dots, then what could be the reason for a threat of "imminent" abduction of Israeli tourists by the Hezbollah? If the Hezbollah suddenly kidnaps Israeli tourists out of the blue, then it might not serve enough purpose. However, if Hezbollah knows that a conflict with IDF is also imminent, then in such a scenario, kidnapped Israeli tourists could be used by the Hezbollah as a negotiating tool during the course of war.





[edit on 13-4-2010 by order in chaos]

[edit on 13-4-2010 by order in chaos]

[edit on 13-4-2010 by order in chaos]

According to the above articles, Israeli incursions in the Lebanese airspace in the recent past was apparently linked to the alleged delivery of scud missiles by Syria to Hezbollah. In the current situation, the weapons acquired by Hezbollah has not yet acquired the "tie breaker" or game changing weapons. The reason for that is the vulnerability of these long range and medium range missiles to Israeli air strikes. To nullify that vulnerability, it has also been alleged that Hezbollah operatives are being trained by Syrian officials in the use of man portable anti aircraft weapon systems. So we can presume that once Hezbollah acquires (if they have already not procured) these portable anti aircraft weapon systems, their long range and medium range missiles wouldn't be that vulnerable to Israeli air strikes. Now that could be a tie-breaker situation.

Following are some links that contain more information about the SA-8 anti aircraft weapon system that I was talking about in the previous links.

SA-8 GECKO 9K33M3 Osa-AKM

SA-8 Gecko

I HAVE SAID IT BEFORE, AND YES, IM SAYING IT AGAIN.
we all better get prepared because if we only focus on the now, we wont see the next. look at EVERYTHING unfolding right now. stuff is getting bad. the world hates america. we have rival nations creating alliances. our alliances are growing ever weaker. the ladder of events to come is frightening. too much anger and tension in the world right now and countries are wanting to fight. being the proud and arrogant people that we are, we want to be involved in every fight around the world.
well... think about it, we are about to get into something that may just break us down as a nation.


does anybody really think we can survive (on a moral level) the next world war? i mean, we wont be fighting tyrrany or oppression or genocide. the majority of the population wont even know what we would be fighting for. this # is scary but we gotta prepare. not just our stuff... but our minds

Hezbollah would also use the captured Israeli citizens as human shields around the scud launchers

Clearly the only option here is for Israel to announce that they consider Hezbollah to be a force of Syrian irregulars since they are armed with Syrian weapons. And they will consider a attack by Hezbollah as a attack by Syria and counterattack with all weapons at their disposal.

That could cause the general Syrian populace to tell the Syrians to back down. Otherwise southern Lebanon and Syria could make a interesting moonscape.

Here is another part of the propaganda :

Sarkozy: If we don't act, Israeli will strike Iran

The rhetoric is getting shriller with every passing day. I know that such statements have come up in the past and they ended up becoming nothing more than hot air. However, in the past, both the international community as well as Israel was convinced to certain extent that diplomacy and sanctions would be effective against Iran. But it looks like the great game of middle east has passed that threshold in the past couple of months. A single act of provocation (false-flag) or otherwise near northern Israeli border would engulf Israel,Lebanon, Syria and possibly Iran in a wider conflict.

Blatant and open arming for a future conflict is what we are seeing before our eyes. While I wish that all parties were willing to get along, but as history has shown me, I doubt anytime soon that peace will fill the empty heart of Israel and or Syria unwilling to accept the Israelis as a neighbor.