Solar Flare Prediction

The electromagnetic radiation emitted by solar flares poses a real threat to satellites used for communications and navigation. It can also be very dangerous for astronauts in orbit or (in the future) on the surface of the Moon. The ability to accurately predict these flares would make it possible to take measures to protect men and machines from the potentially devastating effects of these high energy outbursts.

Alysha Reinhard, with other scientists at NOAA, has found that certain changes in the magnetic fields beneath the surface of the Sun provide advance warning two or three days before a flare occurs.

Reinard and Henthorn found the same pattern in region after region: magnetic twisting that tightened to the breaking point, burst into a large flare, and vanished. They established that the pattern could be used as a reliable tool for predicting a solar flare.

“These recurring motions of the magnetic field, playing out unseen beneath the solar surface, are the clue we’ve needed to know that a large flare is coming—and when,” said Reinard.

www.noaanews.noaa.gov...

reply to post by Phage

provide advance warning two or three days before a flare occurs.

Off the top of that knowledgeable head of yours how long does it take to reposition a satellite - far enough away to not be damaged..?


Would 2 or 3 days be enough..? I'll look for the info myself btw and post if no one knows, as it seems pertinent to these findings.


From source:

Two or three days lead time can make the difference between safeguarding the advanced technologies we depend on every day for our livelihood and security, and the catastrophic loss of these capabilities and trillions of dollars in disrupted commerce,”

I guess it's enough...










[edit on 1/22/2010 by happygolucky]

Interesting Phage,

this may prove to have came at a crucial time too, with the sun beginning to ramp up activity.

So if NOAA issue a solar flare warning, will the Government and the military Etc actually listen to these guys and move their satellites?

and do NOAA issue these warnings to all countries?

g

reply to post by happygolucky

That's a good question. I don't know the answer.

Moving a satellite might not really be a practical solution in most cases but rotating the bird so that its more vulnerable bits are facing away from the Sun during the flare would be possible. Shutting systems down would also probably offer some protection.

I remember Chadwickus posted a thread about a major solar flare of IIRC 1850-60s. It frazzled the telegraph network in N America. Subsequent major flares have fused transformers of the national grid.

Predicting these events is important, but the will seems lacking. The SoHo observatory is like a 'black ice' sensor in cars...warns you when you are already on it. The guys on the ISS have been warned of large solar flares and take refuge in the center until the flare has passed.

We aren't prepared, on Earth, for a significant solar flare.

reply to post by colloredbrothers
The vid is a fake. The guy has done three moon UFO vids. They keep turning up. Is there a solar flare in there somewhere?

reply to post by colloredbrothers


Was there a point, for this vid, to be posted here?

Just curious, thought mabey I missed something

So talking about solar flares, there is one that seems to be directed twards Earth today....?!?

spaceweather.com...

EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION? NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft is tracking four active regions strung across the eastern hemisphere of the sun.

The blast occured around 0130 UT on February 5th and it appears to have hurled some material in the general direction of Earth. (Our planet is off the right edge of the image.) The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has a direct view of the blast site, but SOHO images are not yet available to assist our evaluation. This was not a major eruption, but it could spark polar auroras a few days from now if a cloud is indeed en route.

This was not a major eruption, the article says...but the pic shows how much more alive the sun is becoming. Im sure we will see more of this to come.

Originally posted by happygolucky
reply to post by Phage

 

provide advance warning two or three days before a flare occurs.

Off the top of that knowledgeable head of yours

how long does it take to reposition a satellite - far enough away to not be damaged..?


Would 2 or 3 days be enough..? I'll look for the info myself btw and post if no one knows, as it seems pertinent to these findings.


[edit on 1/22/2010 by happygolucky]

For communication satellites (the bulk of which are Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO)), they have a 2 degree orbital box which they cannot move out of.

If solar activity is known in advance, the spacecraft can be shut down temporarily to protect circuit overloads. Moving them isn't an option.

reply to post by Phage


Phage i think you put this in the wrong forum. It needs to be in the prophesies and predictions forum... geeez.



Cool find, do you know of any of the current public resources that could be used to notice this twisting before the flare? I wouldn't think soho would give enough detail. It could be fun to try and watch for flares ahead of time.