European Union To Break Apart?

It's bad here in the U.S. And despite what people "smarter" than me say over the airwaves -- we're in a recovery! hurrah! -- we are still mired in a depression economy. Unemployment is still above 10% nationally, but when you wipe away the polish and get to the grit of those numbers, we're effectively approaching 20% unemployment (i.e., put 5 people in a room and one of them is outta work).

Corporate America is eking out a profit simply by demanding existing employees do more -- seen in the huge jump in productivity numbers and a decline in real wages -- a trend both self-defeating and unsustainable.

And perhaps worse of all, our government continues to pursue policies that will have only those companies that service the Treasury's printing presses working overtime. The money we're printing is unsustainable.

Other undercurrents killing this economy -- and our wallets:

1. Inflation - the silent killer about to get real loud this year.
   
2. Housing prices will continue to collapse and will get even worse once Fed is forced to up interest rates.
   
3. Shift to becoming exporter nation will not happen overnight. Unemployment will continue to mount for months - years - until new reality sets in.
   
4. The plague of locusts (my term I have for speculative investors) will, unjustly, surge on commodities again this summer, creating food shortages.
   

So, why in this environment would foreigners suddenly have an appetite for US debt?

According to the latest Treasury numbers, foreigners have returned in droves to buy US debt. Given the scenario above, that makes little sense. Or does it?

I believe we're about to find out that the world - especially China and certain members of the European Union -- are in a lot worse shape than we are. China is producing goods at overcapacity just to keep its populace working -- and out of protesting mode. Properties in places like Australia and Argentina are still greatly overvalued. And aside from the precarious economic situations in Ireland, Germany, Spain and Greece, the Euro -- the poster child of "stability" in this economic crisis -- is greatly overvalued and poised to crash. Such a crash could tip the economic scale and shatter a less than 20-year-old economic block.

I'm not sure what to leave you with at the moment. Does this mean our future is rosy? No way. If anything, our foreign "friends" -- Russia anyone? -- have been smelling blood in the water for some time and are active in dethroning us as the world power. This won't let up.

It's just that we may get the last laugh.

[edit on 1/19/2010 by behindthescenes]

I read about this before.

The nations you state but also the Netherlands is threatened by this.
I'm Dutch and we, the people are not informed about these speculations or endangerment of our currency whatsoever.

We are a unusually powerful and influential nation. Related to our size and inhabitants. Overpopulated as we are.
There are about 16 million living here. We however pay the largest amount of money per individual, to Europe. So much is payed our national contribution is higher then what France or even Britain pays.

Since the eighty's our taxes only got higher and higher but the service our government provides became less every year.

Now there a talks about a meat tax. Because livestock uses to much energy and causes to much pollution. Ha what a joke !!

Anyway we pay a lot of money and get nothing in return.
Oh wait !! Bail outs of our banks !. Giving them billions of tax payers money and replenish their shortages by taking loanes. Highering state dept.

We are actually double screwed. National dept is also payed with tax money.

The collapse of the entire system would be strange. It would proof a one world government would fail. I mean that;s what they want, right ?
Europe is an experimental beginning to get what they want.

Well... That's what i think anyway.

Great post !

Peace !

reply to post by behindthescenes
Ever had that dream where you're standing atop a pyramid in sort of sun god robes with a thousand naked women screaming and throwing little pickles at you?



Behind-
You need to give credit for your signature quote to Val Kilmer in the movie "Real Genius" circa 1985. One of my all time faves.
Another great quote was when Dr. Dodd asks why Kilmer is wearing one of those springy ball antenna toys on his head? To which Kilmer replies"
"If I wear it anywhere else, it chafes!"

Classic 80's humor.



[edit on 19-1-2010 by Boypony]

Hmmm.. I don't think that an overvalued currency will do any more than cause large problems with exports.

As much as I would like to see some Anarchy every so often, the EU and EURO are not about to break up. The Dollar will weaken substantially but will not crash completely and the Chinese economy will begin to slow over the next couple of years.. This is what almost all the non mainstream top rate economists are predicting.

Anyone talking of recovery when national borrowing remains positive, (never mind high as a number!) is pulling the wool over their eyes.
We are in a fragile situation and there are at least several ways, we could see the 1930's "all over again".

But membership of the European Union has precious little to do with what the citizens of the member states want, and there is no better example how 92 percent of British people wanted a referendum over the recent Lisbon Treaty which has stripped our government of many rights.
Yet all 3 parties (even the Conservatives eventurally) decided against it, and not to replace the referendum question over EU membership itself. So all 3 parties don't support something 92 percent of British people want.
Confirmation all 3 are well principled? Or confirmation that the EU is an "after national politics" Club, at conflict with Parliament?

I think, if things get worse the European Union will just be better promoted as the solution to all our problems. The only country likely to leave is Britain, because (as verturally any opinion poll will show you) the British People have been so consistently anti European Parliament that it's only a matter of time years-decades until an opposition may finally represent us.

[edit on 090705 by Liberal1984]

Originally posted by Liberal1984
I think, if things get worse the European Union will just be better promoted as the solution to all our problems. The only country likely to leave is Britain, because (as verturally any opinion poll will show you) the British People have been so consistently anti European Parliament that it's only a matter of time years-decades until an opposition may finally represent us.

[edit on 090705 by Liberal1984]

The stress on the union will come from member countries' citizens demanding internal help for a worsening economic crisis. There is only so much Europe can do as a union before protectionism and isolationism begins to rule member policy.

This is why I think there's a good chance the union -- perhaps not abruptly -- will crack.

reply to post by behindthescenes


Ah yes but there are new laws being introduced that crack down heavily on states that are running deficits and weakening the position of the EU/EUROZONE..

euobserver.com...

And if a state goes broke which is not in the Eurozone, then its not exactly a major problem.

Yet all 3 parties (even the Conservatives eventurally) decided against it, and not to replace the referendum question over EU membership itself. So all 3 parties don't support something 92 percent of British people want.

And why do you think that this is? Im not trying to blow the EU's trumpet here but great things are never created through the democratic process.. they are democratized after being created and the EU is the only great thing this planet has seen to date that has not been forged entirely of war. And its democratizing more and more as it becomes more powerful.

UK leaders realize that as a part of an EU government or even just as an EU state, they will have more clout in the new multipolar world of giant economies and without which could be seriously detrimental to their economies/global direction making if they do not combine. Also the fact that EU type systems are the future of our civilization is probably a big part of it.

Fair enough, the UK - mainly the English - still have a residual British Imperial mindset and view themselves as a superpower in their own right but that is not the case anymore and will definitely not be the case in 40 years.

For me, I would prefer to be dictated to in the future by a superpower that I have a vote in and a connection to than by the US or the Chinese or BRIC or the G2. As the EU we control almost a third of the worlds wealth at the moment and have no need top worry about anyone else. And all this conspiracy crap about the New World Order aside, the world needs to move forward and at the moment the EU is the only properly forward thinking power. Constantly pushing up towards environmentalism, creating consistent wealth, creating safety, health and technological standards and also pushing innovation while protecting us without using mass violence and military means.

I get that people in the UK don't see this, want it or even care about it but thats one of the respected and powerful attributes of the English. Fact is though, China, India, the US and EU are much bigger these days. Gone is the empire.

reply to post by Dermo


Opposition to the EU in the UK will continue as long as the EU tries to dictate policy to the UK and to undermine it's national authority and identity.
The EU is thoroughly UNdemococratic and is riddled with corruption.
The UK pays a disproportionate amount into the EU and receives so very little back.

It is noticeable that countries like Spain, Greece and Ireland, which have received a massive amount of EU investment in their infrastucture and countries like France and Germany, whose farming and shipping industries all receive massive subsidies show support for the EU yet the UK, which get's so little from the EU, is passionately anti-EU.

As the standard of living continues to fall in France, Germany et al as a result of subsidising the newer and poorer members of the EU, I suspect we will see a reduction in support for the EU in those countries.
Subsequently Europe will collapse into chaos.
History teaches us that when chaos occurs in Europe, (or anywhere for that matter), war soon follows. (Be it economic, military or both).
Hopefully the UK will be well positioned to defend itself.
Which other EU state wil be able to say the same?



[edit on 20/1/10 by Freeborn]

reply to post by Freeborn


Tbh, I really can't see that happening.

While you are saying that these members are deteriorating, they happen to be in the best condition of western economies - including you own. And their standards of living are dropping? Or their standards of living are dropping in relation to other countries who's standards are rising?

Also, we are in the midst of the worst economic crisis in a century.. you seem to be leaving that out. The UK economy is in trouble, not because of the EU but because of bad financial practices.

Also, the general gist that I have come across in Europe is support of the EU and its role in the world where as the general UK view is the opposite. Ireland seems split down the middle on the matter - Stick with Britain and the US or go with Europe.. English speakers vs the Continent.

And you seem to be making out that the small amount paid by each state to the EU makes a massive difference to their economies and living standards even though they are creating a wider market for product consumption and therefore more income... Its an easy scapegoat but clearly works.

As I said, I know the general English/UK mindset towards the EU and it is generally one of disdain.. but that is not widespread in the rest of the continent. Maybe Britain would be better off leaving the EU but what would it do on its own? Save a few billion a year, de regulate its markets and eventually join the US?

Anyway.. if these things which you said happen, make sure to give me a shout so I can eat the closest hat to me

The EU is thoroughly UNdemococratic and is riddled with corruption.

This is a common argument. Please give examples of current EU corruption or else its only an opinion.

And undemocratic.. even though the Lisbon treaty gives our Parliaments a direct vote in EU policy and our elected EU parliament votes on every bill, law etc and has a veto on commission policy.

You are talking about the Commission when you talk about undemocratic BUT the commission is the EU civil service.. since when do you vote in your civil service leaders and diplomats?

[edit on 20/1/10 by Dermo]

I think one reason you get more 'Euro-scepticism' in the UK is simply geography. As an island nation we have always been apart from continental Europe. You can see the differences in the mindset and the architecture even...
Another reason is that some people argue that we don't get our moneys worth out of it.
And of course the biggy is that some of us resent more powers going into the hands of the Eurocrats in Brussels.

Let's not forget that originally, the European Union was sold to the UK as simply a trade agreement. In those days it was 'The Common Market'.
And politicians have given backword on their pledge to hold a referendum. So people feel betrayed.
Rightly or wrongly, I would be quite happy for us to exit the Union.
It's just another step towards globalisation anyway.

[edit on 20-1-2010 by unicorn1]

Originally posted by Dermo
reply to post by Freeborn

Or their standards of living are dropping in relation to other countries who's standards are rising?

As more Eastern European countries and their like, including Turkey, join the EU, members contributions will be spent raising standards in these countries whilst it drop's in other's thus getting an evening out across the continent.

Also, we are in the midst of the worst economic crisis in a century.. you seem to be leaving that out. The UK economy is in trouble, not because of the EU but because of bad financial practices.

Trust me I lived through the early 80's and it seemed far worse, maybe that is just a personal perception of thing's as the North East of England suffered far worse than most other area's during the 80's.

The UK economy is in trouble because Brown is caught in between serving his EU overlords or putting the UK first.
In addition he bailed the banks out, who had been guilty of gross incompetence, to the tune of billions and thus putting this country in debt for generations.

Also, the general gist that I have come across in Europe is support of the EU and its role in the world where as the general UK view is the opposite. Ireland seems split down the middle on the matter - Stick with Britain and the US or go with Europe.. English speakers vs the Continent.

I would tend to agree with that assessment.
But as wealthy countries continue to subsidise poorer one's and nationalities begin to loose national identities will this continue?
I suspect not.

And you seem to be making out that the small amount paid by each state to the EU makes a massive difference to their economies and living standards even though they are creating a wider market for product consumption and therefore more income... Its an easy scapegoat but clearly works.

I have travelled throughout Europe and it is a common sight to see some major construction work or business and trade centre newly built with European funding.
This is noticeably absent in the UK.

Farming and Fishing industries are massively subsidised in continental countries, much to the expense of their British counterparts.
But these subsidies will not last for ever.
And how will the French farmers and Spanish fishermen react then?

As I said, I know the general English/UK mindset towards the EU and it is generally one of disdain..

Of course, because of the vagaries I have already mentioned and the inherent and endemic corruption that runs through the EU from top to bottom.

Additionally there is the distinctly 'island' mindset that has ensured Britain's survival for the last thousand years.
It is very hard to throw that off in such a short space of time.
There is a distinct diffenrence between continental European society and British society.
We British are safe and secure in the knowledge that when the chips are down we English, Scots, Welsh and yes even Irish will stick together come what may....we can not say the same about our continental neighbours who we have been at odds with for centuries.

but that is not widespread in the rest of the continent. Maybe Britain would be better off leaving the EU but what would it do on its own? Save a few billion a year, de regulate its markets and eventually join the US?

If the British people had their way we would leave the EU tomorrow.
The EU is no longer just a trade organisation and is increasingly becoming a tool to enforce NWO ideals.

I would gladly trade with New Zealand, Canada and Australia etc and as for joining the US, lol....there will always be a place for our dear colonial cousins when they want to rejoin us in their rightful place as a leading light in The Commonwealth, lol.

Anyway.. if these things which you said happen, make sure to give me a shout so I can eat the closest hat to me

LOL.


[edit on 20/1/10 by Freeborn]

All of the above boils down to history, if it was'nt for the English channel in !940, the nazi's would still be in charge, and what thanks did the American's and British get from DeGual for pulling his countrys nuts out of the fire???
Not much.
When Poland joined the EU, it spent its first years EU grant on buying American jet fighters, not on hospitals, roads, railroads, schools, turns out that amount was what the British paid in, no wonder the British get upset!!

Originally posted by Freeborn
there will always be a place for our dear colonial cousins when they want to rejoin us in their rightful place as a leading light in The Commonwealth,

lol.

They'll come crawling back eventually.