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[Assessed contributions [of at least 0.7% of the annual GDP of developed country Parties]...[taking into account historical contribution to concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere];]...
PP.15 Further acknowledging that developed countries have a historical responsibility for their disproportionate contribution to the causes and consequences of climate change, reflecting their disproportionate historical use of a shared global carbon space since 1850 as well as their proposed
continuing disproportionate use of the remaining global carbon space.
1. [[[As assessed by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report] Warming of the climate system, as a consequence of human activity, is unequivocal. [Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases have increased significantly because of human activities since 1750.]
2. Current atmospheric concentrations are principally the result of historical emissions of greenhouse gases, [the largest share of which has originated in] [originating from] developed countries
[Parties]
The responses to this study are actually very funny. If someone presented a polka-dot banana and said it clashed with AGW, a similar set of responses would likely appear.
Originally posted by willow1d
Well, those of us who has shown as low as a passing interest up to an obsession with this iceage/globalwarming/climatechange, have connected the dots on that banana. When you see that:
There are potential methods to do it, but none to few are tested in any even pilot or large scale. The costs are uncertain but it won't be cheap, the development time is uncertain, the effectiveness is uncertain, the overall consequences and process is uncertain.
So we remove CO2, pretty simple chemistry on the small scale, and then what? The next issue is where does the product go? No good if the carbon is back into the atmosphere within a few years. So it needs to be stored long-term in a reliable way - sounds fun. Then we have to wonder how effective the method is...how long will it take to even start reducing atmospheric CO2? Is it able to remove even our yearly emissions (8 gigatonnes of carbon, lol), and how long will it take to do so? How long will it take to roll out these methods to the scale required to reduce CO2 in any useful quantities? How much are we talking about for an effective method of removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing the resultant byproduct?
I don't think straight taxes are the most effective approach. Unless we compel reductions in emissions, I feel industry and people will just overcome the expense and little really changes. Hence C&T makes more sense.
Originally posted by TheRedneck
Columbia University was asking for governmental grants to market, not to develop. Their device was already tested and they had concrete results. This was not some design on paper; it was an actual, functioning, tested unit. No grant was forthcoming, and it would appear this was due to organizations like Greenpeace denouncing it.
CO2 sequestration is actually not a difficult thing to accomplish. We have had the technology for years. If there were enough carbon in the atmosphere to make it commercially viable, I am certain there would already be such sequestration going on. Carbon has many uses, such as carbon fiber composites, graphite, and even charcoal for barbecue grills.
Cost: demonstrated to be viable, as opposed to Cap & Trade being potentially disastrous economically, to the tune of trillions of dollars in price increases and lost jobs.
Development time: almost immediate, compared to a few years for Cap & Trade to fully engage.
Effectiveness: one ton of CO2 per day per unit, as opposed to questionable Cap & Trade efficiency which has yet to be tested or proven with results.
Overall consequences: one ton of CO2 removed per day per unit. Isn't that what Cap & Trade is supposed to do as well, reduce CO2?
Process: simple chemical reactions. Nothing uncertain about it. There is still plenty of uncertainty about every aspect of Cap & Trade, except that it will cost a lot of money to the public at large.
At the other end of the scale, Keith has estimated it might cost $500 per tonne of carbon using today's technologies (see 'A way to pay for capturing carbon dioxide'). That would rack up a bill of $325 trillion to soak up 650 Gt of carbon, but Pielke notes that such a price tag would still only be 2.7% of global economic output by 2100. That compares favourably with price estimates of the IPCC (–1 to 5% of global economic output) and economist Nicholas Stern (–2 to 4%) for stabilizing air concentrations at 450 p.p.m. without air capture.
...
"It is the most expensive climate-mitigation technology," agrees Zeman. "And that's a good thing. It has this role as the upper bound on solving the climate problem."
Where does the product go? Back into the earth. Carbon is not a hazardous material, and does not need to be treated as one. The only concern is over the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, not the amount of carbon.
8 gigatons of carbon per year. Is that carbon dioxide or carbon? I'd like to see some more information on where you got that number. Does it include all life-based CO2? Or only energy plants? How was it measured?
Time for another linky-dink.
But Cap & Trade is a tax, just like any excise tax or income tax or sin tax. The carbon credits came from governments. Who gets paid when they are sold? Governments. Who pays the price for them? Consumers. No business can afford to not pass on such a cost increase in operating expenses and survive.
Consumers pay extra for their use of a product, which is funneled to their government. That is the definition of a tax.
TheRedneck
I thought 'develop' was pretty indicative of the situation here. They have a pre-prototype.
You do understand that burning it would just put it back where it came from?
C&T is tried and tested. Europe will meet its Kyoto requirements and you've had a C&T system for years. You're suggestions of economic disaster is not supported by the evidence.
I know the chemistry is simple enough. There are uncertainties - cost, effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Unless you think pre-prototypes are sure-things... And who pays for artificial trees and the reprocessing? They won't grow themselves...
For CO2 we release something around 28 billion tonnes a year at the moment. How many of these artificial trees do we need?
Nothing is stopping them from developing this system, the money is out there in the market - Branson has been waving a $25 million wedge for such technologies. Even one of your bogeymen, Hansen, is supporting the development of carbon capture.
It's an early-stage technology which could be very useful but potentially still very expensive. Indeed, the most expensive according to one researcher into these methods. Don't try to make it something it isn't.
It needs to be shoved back in a reliable way. Is the storage system prone to leaking back into the environment? If so, would it harm ecosystems? Groundwater? Just return to the atmosphere?
Would take a few clicks to find it. It was actually 8.38GtC in 2006 (gigatonnes of carbon).
No, it isn't. It's a regulation. You're supporting another system that could just be more expensive than what is already on the table and is at a very early stage.
But, taking the US system, most of the cash goes nowhere near the government...
You'll still be paying for carbon sequestration. Just to reiterate, artificial trees don't grow on trees.
Originally posted by TheRedneck
A what?
Mel, there is only one thing that comes before a prototype: a design. They have a working model; a prototype.
The team is working to build a prototype at a laboratory in Tuscon, Arizona. Run by a company called Global Research Technologies (GRT), of which Lackner is vice president of research, the laboratory unveiled a "pre-prototype" air capture machine last year, based on a different technique -rinsing trapped CO2 off the membrane with liquid sodium carbonate, and then using electricity to liberate the CO2 from the fluid.
Yeah, that's the funny thing about CO2... it is the end result any time carbon is burned in an oxygen atmosphere. But only one of my examples is typically burned. Carbon fiber composites are high-strength low-weight building materials (which are now very expensive; I priced some just a few weeks back), and graphite isn't typically burned unless you are in the habit of burning your notes.
The point is, there are many uses for carbon.
As I understand it, carbon output has not reduced significantly in Europe since Cap & Trade was initiated, but fuel prices have increased significantly. Now, being I have never been to Europe, some links to show my ignorance would be considered.
The US does not at this time have Cap & Trade, except as a voluntary measure. No law requiring it has yet been passed, although some are now working their way through Congress.
A report by the European Environment Agency released today shows that the European Union and all Member States but one are on track to meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Such an accomplishment should encourage all countries to agree on much larger reductions of global emissions, sealing a global deal in Copenhagen this December.
New estimates confirm the declining trend in EU greenhouse gas emissions
More Whereas the Protocol requires that the EU-15 reduce average emissions during 2008–2012 to 8 % below 1990 levels, the latest projections indicate that the EU-15 will go further, reaching a total reduction of more than 13 % below the base year.
There are no uncertainties. Carbon sequestration has been feasable for many years... there is simply no real incentive to accomplish it. It is even possible to produce gasoline from CO2, although this is cost-prohibitive at present... primarily due to the fact that so much air has to be processed for each gallon of gasoline produced. That is a nice expletive to how little CO2 concentration there really is.
Well, let's see... 28,000,000,000 divided by 365.25 tons per year = about 76,700,000 units. That would be one unit for every 4 people in the US alone, or less than one per family.
If you consider world population instead of US population (it is a Global thing, isn't it?), then that would be more like one unit per every 85 persons.
So the answer is: a lot less than we have TVs, microwave ovens, or automobiles in the US alone.
Done. Can you put me in touch with them?
There are no government funding programs
that specifically target the development of air
capture, and I estimate that the total annual expenditure
for these efforts is currently less than $3
million per year, of which more than half is private.
How about turning it into artificial diamonds? Would that satisfy you? For an initial outlay of $25 mil, I could probably even make that happen.
Carbon does not damage groundwater. Ever heard of a charcoal filter?
A regulation is a hidden tax.
Who is selling the carbon credits initially?
You'll still be paying for carbon sequestration. Just to reiterate, artificial trees don't grow on trees.
No, they don't, and yes I will. But at least I will not be paying money that goes nowhere near actual removal of CO2. Privately operated manufacturing of a product is immensely fairer that governmental control, and causes much less loss of liberty.
And I personally like liberty.
I'm waiting for that introduction to Branson and Hansen.
TheRedneck
On some important aspects of the climate policy issue I agree strongly with Hansen, for instance on the importance of air capture and the feebleness of current policy approaches.
Originally posted by TheRedneck
Close. I suggest allowing (encouraging?) individual bio-engineering on small areas, which would lead to a cumulative total large-scale change. If 1% of the present population of 6 billion? people planted a single tree each year, that is 60 million new trees every year to soak up all that CO2 you are so afraid of.
TheRedneck
A pre-prototype.
I was just a bit surprised you even suggested burning it. Sort of defeats the object of pulling it out the air.
You have had a successful cap and trade for SO2 for years.
Yes, it's feasible. That's not the point. We already use CO2 scrubbing at the small-scale (e.g., subs), it's actually putting it out on the ground in an effective manner for the purpose we need it.
An artificial tree in every backyard...
It is unlikely to be solid carbon. The CO2 is captured using other materials and must be processed. You could turn it into solid carbon, but that would take even more energy. You'd need to reduce CO2 probably.
Seat-belt regulations - damn taxes!
You know the outline of Waxman-Markey already. I explained it twice in t'other subforum.
The idea of C&T is to force emitters to be involved in 'Privately operated manufacturing of a product', for example, capture at the point of origin is a cheaper option than some embryonic process. Geez, at least it's been run as a pilot. The second part is to force them to be more efficient. That actually saves money, lol. And we should see more 'Privately operated manufacturing of a product' in the production of sustainable energy sources. Amazingly, you might even be investing that money in your own economy and american jobs, rather than funding some Arab donkeys at the Epsom derby and bleedin' Manchester City.
Originally posted by TheRedneck
reply to post by melatonin
A pre-prototype.
LOL!
I think you are referring to a 'proof of concept'. It is a prototype, but one intended to demonstrate to the developer that the concepts involved are feasible.
A prototype is a single-run construction of a device, intended for demonstration. To call such a 'pre-prototype' is to demonstrate a complete lack of knowledge of the process involved in research/development.
From Synthetic Trees to Carbon Sponges: an interview with Scientist Klaus Lackner
...
"We developed a pre-prototype that shows that all the pieces of this system work."
You really are terrified of CO2, aren't you?
You have had a successful cap and trade for SO2 for years.
Firstly, we were discussing CO2. When did we switch to SO2 (a deadly poison)?
Secondly, we do not have Cap & Trade for SO2.
The Acid Rain Program was established under Title IV
of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments to reduce acid
rain and improve public health by dramatically reducing
emissions of SO2 and NOx. Using a market-based cap
and trade approach, the program sets a permanent cap
on the total amount of SO2 that may be emitted by
electric power plants nationwide.
Cost: demonstrated to be viable, as opposed to Cap & Trade being potentially disastrous economically, to the tune of trillions of dollars in price increases and lost jobs.
Development time: almost immediate, compared to a few years for Cap & Trade to fully engage.
Effectiveness: one ton of CO2 per day per unit, as opposed to questionable Cap & Trade efficiency which has yet to be tested or proven with results.
Overall consequences: one ton of CO2 removed per day per unit. Isn't that what Cap & Trade is supposed to do as well, reduce CO2?
Process: simple chemical reactions. Nothing uncertain about it. There is still plenty of uncertainty about every aspect of Cap & Trade, except that it will cost a lot of money to the public at large.
You just agreed it is feasible, then proceeded to state that it isn't feasible.
Pick a side?
An artificial tree in every backyard...
A TV in every room, two cars in every garage...
Mel, are you even reading my posts? Several of the processes I am speaking of reduce the CO2 into carbon. That includes the one at Columbia University, a magnesium-based system developed a few decades ago, and an acidic-based system that I have the plans to here. Take your pick; they all turn CO2 into carbon: simple, black, powdery graphite.
The team is working to build a prototype at a laboratory in Tuscon, Arizona. Run by a company called Global Research Technologies (GRT), of which Lackner is vice president of research, the laboratory unveiled a "pre-prototype" air capture machine last year, based on a different technique -rinsing trapped CO2 off the membrane with liquid sodium carbonate, and then using electricity to liberate the CO2 from the fluid.
Do you really believe the cost of seat belts is not calculated into the price of a new car?
Yes, you did. The carbon credits are issued and sold off by the government. The moneys from the sale go to the government.
The idea is not necessarily the outcome. You say it will make energy producers more efficient. Possibly, but you are also stating earlier that the cost of CO2 sequestration is too high. Is it somehow cheaper to do so at one location than another? Do you believe for one moment that the costs will be less for power to do more? Sure, the cost of moving that massive amount of air would be reduced some, but the technology is basically the same: energy must be expended in order to separate the molecular bonds.
potentially disastrous economically, to the tune of trillions of dollars in price increases
It's at least been run as a pilot? OK, I'll grant you that. It's hard to run a competing technology as a pilot program when there are no finances available to run it. That doesn't mean it won't work; it usually means it works better, and doesn't make as much money for those who have the money already.
Keeping jobs and money in America sounds great on the surface, but so did all those...
Mel, I understand you have this rosy view of the future and of governments...
No, they call it a pre-prototype.
I don't know if I can be bothered anymore, I'm starting to feel embarrassed for you.
C&T has been demonstrated to be viable. Both in europe and in the US for SO2 regulation.
Except it isn't. C&T saw good reductions once implemented in europe. Same for the US for SO2.
Source: Cap and Trade Doesn't Work, The Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2009
According to European Commission figures, emissions from the 27 member states rose by 1.9% in the first three years of the regime. Following criticism, the caps for the period to 2012 were reduced for the majority of member states, but only to a little lower than actual emissions in 2005, and the evidence is that the recession is having a much more direct impact on emissions than the trading scheme (incidentally putting a lot of low-priced permits on the market).
Mike Carey delivered a message against Cap and Trade, citing the horrors that similar legislation has visited on coal communities in the European Union. Carey points to research that in addition to supporting their own families, each of the 200,000 plus employees of the coal industry provide the buying power to support 11 other families. Carey stated that clean coal is not around the corner, and that the 2.2 million job footprint is in serious jeopardy from cap and trade.
Source: Cap and Trade takes a Beating in Senate Committee posted by ecofactory.com
Iain Murray of the Competitive Enterprise Institute states otherwise, citing the failure of cap and trade in Europe to create a reduction in emissions beyond what is attributed to the recession (U.S. emissions went down 2.8% due to the 3 million job decline). Murray cites how the EU is almost certain to miss their 2020 targets, despite the surplus of available carbon credits in the market.
Source: Cap-and-Trade Does More Harm than Good, hosted on CommonDreams.org, originally published by The Philadelphia Inquirer on June 25, 2009
In Europe, cap-and-trade has failed to deliver on climate change. It yielded windfall profits for utilities, but few reductions in emissions or investments in clean technology.
So will air capture. And lots of uncertainty about how to fully implement it, it's little more than an early-stage technology with serious technical hurdles.
Yeah, at a level of hundreds of trillions of dollars total cost. Who's buying them?
No, they don't. Are you being purposefully contrary here? In my last post...
The team is working to build a prototype at a laboratory in Tuscon, Arizona. Run by a company called Global Research Technologies (GRT), of which Lackner is vice president of research, the laboratory unveiled a "pre-prototype" air capture machine last year, based on a different technique -rinsing trapped CO2 off the membrane with liquid sodium carbonate, and then using electricity to liberate the CO2 from the fluid.
Lackner's method actually releases CO2 in the gaseous state. To even do that takes about 1.3kwh per kilogram of CO2. To reduce it to carbon would be silly and even more energy intensive. And so we use artificial trees to further soak up the CO2 from that energy?
And the cost of acting on climate change legislation will be factored into the cost of energy.
But the vast majority aren't sold.
You complained earlier of costs of trillions of dollars for legislative action, yet even the best idealised estimates of air capture of the order of $325 trillion dollars - but that involves waiting for economies to grow using cheap energy and then acting around 2050, lol.
Even those involved in air capture accept it's the most expensive approach to mitigation.
But why would you want to support something that costs more money? Carbon capture at source is cheaper. The idea is to compel those controlling the likes of coal-plants to implement carbon capture and even see moves to NEW sustainable energy sources. It's the same problem. The artificial trees won't grow on trees, someone needs to pay for their implementation and upkeep.
Not really, just not a paranoid ideologue.
Originally posted by TheRedneck
'They' can call it a purple-plated whatsis for all that. There is no law against showing ignorance of standardized techniques.
...
That's the way it works. If someone wants to deviate from this procedure, I wish them well. They will need it.
Yes, there was an SO2 Cap & Trade program in the USA which I was unaware of. Thank you for denying my ignorance of that fact.
See? That wasn't so hard to do.
It would seem that these attorneys make an excellent case as to why SO2 and CO2 emission reductions are not the same.
It would appear some dare disagree with this:
In Europe, cap-and-trade has failed to deliver on climate change...
Needing financing for a politically unpopular idea that has been proven in testing to work as proposed is not a 'technical hurdle'. It is a financial and political hurdle.
Potential Energy has learned that Energy Secretary Steven Chu met with representatives of the FutureGen Alliance today, reinforcing positive signals from Chu two weeks ago that the troubled project could be revived. The public-private partnership to prove the integration of coal gasification, carbon capture, and sequestration technologies was killed by the Bush Administration in January 2008 using what Congressional investigators have shown to be specious accounting.
Who is buying TV sets that cost close to $1000? Who is buying cars at costs of $30,000 and up?
I'd like to know how you arrived at 'hundreds of trillions' of dollars as an estimate. At an estimated cost of $5000 per unit, that only comes to about $375 billion total cost, not that much in a global economy.
We spent more than that on parties for AIG executives.
You do realize that there are other scrubber technologies available, right? Mel, read the next line very closely:
I have, in my possession right now, plans for a device that would remove CO2 from the atmosphere, with a 50% (+/- 10%) capture rate, and that produces pure carbon as an output.
Got it? Or do I need to continue repeating this?
Talk about embarrassing... I described three different technologies, and you can't get past one that apparently doesn't perform...
Columbia University was asking for governmental grants to market, not to develop. Their device was already tested and they had concrete results. This was not some design on paper; it was an actual, functioning, tested unit
Senate seats are not allowed to be sold. Even if carbon credits aren't allowed to be sold, do you really believe they won't be?
Did I mention I have some nice ocean-front land in Kansas I could let you have for a reduced price?
See my calculations above. I can only assume that these 'experts' you allude to are the same ones building devices which do not reduce the carbon, and who are busy on their 'pre-prototypes'.
I support true market-based technologies. Requiring a utility to conform to red tape is not market-based. Implementing manufacturing to solve a need is market-based. Now, it does not bother me if the scrubbers are placed at the power plants themselves, outside people's homes, or on rafts floating in the ocean. Columbia University's design is scalable.
Obviously not! Let's see, so far you appear to believe:
- Only one form of carbon sequestration is possible, and it cannot reduce the carbon.
Mel, are you even reading my posts? Several of the processes I am speaking of reduce the CO2 into carbon. That includes the one at Columbia University, a magnesium-based system developed a few decades ago, and an acidic-based system that I have the plans to here. Take your pick; they all turn CO2 into carbon: simple, black, powdery graphite.
Please, we were doing so well this time. Can we get back to reality now?
TheRedneck
But don't you think that's indicative of this project still being in the developmental phase? Remember that's all I said...
Yeah, seen it before. That's their opinion. Hansen is also not a fan of C&T, much preferring straight taxation.
I'm sure some do. But europe still more than met the expectations of Kyoto. It wasn't a perfect system (indeed, much less than), but it was just an initial trial phase. It wasn't even aimed at producing significant reductions, just to put the system in place.
As for costs, you'd probably need to look at the suppliers for that. Had little to do with the C&T system. It caused an increase initially, but the rest was mainly supply costs.
Fuel costs more, prices rise. You might have noticed it at the fuel pump until fairly recently. Or did C&T in europe cause your costs to rise as well, lol.
Except we've done more to move towards an active emissions regulation than almost all others, and we did actually meet our Kyoto requirements.
Wasn't even speaking of financing for development. I'm talking about actually putting such a complete system into action on the ground in the scales we need it.
It's not politically unpopular. Obama seems keen on air/carbon capture. Look, during the Bush years anything to do with the climate and action was the red-haired kid in the corner, don't blame people wanting action for lack of funding of such projects. At least Obama is open to focused funding of sustainable energy and climate change projects.
Do you actually think these artificial trees are like home humidifiers or something?
You really don't understand what's required here, do you?
I know there is. There multiple designs being assessed. When they are actually workable, they'll be taken on their merits.
Forgive me for focusing on that one just a little bit...
That's the one you said a few posts ago was ready to be marketed, but now you say it doesn't perform...
And in its place you have 'designs', cool. Could be millions to be made here, get to it! We're still short of an actual functional tested unit for pilot testing.
Originally posted by TheRedneck]
OK, it's definitely in the design stage. And it would appear to me that it will remain in the design stage until it is obsolete.
Which ain't such a bad thing, necessarily, since it doesn't even reduce the CO2. Heck, I could make a separator in my shop in a couple days time.
Straight taxation would at least be a more open and transparent means of implementation.
It wasn't aimed to reduce emissions? You guys went through the price increases for what, show?
If I lived in Europe, I would be outraged at that statement. But seeing as I don't live there, I am just amazed.
That must be extremely convenient. Do you always lay the blame for failure on others?
Yes, fuel supply affects prices. That much is obvious. Government intervention also affects prices. Demand affects prices. Everything that affects the bottom line of energy companies affects their prices. To declare that one variable does not (Cap & Trade) because the others did (supply) is just plain...
Gah, I can't even think of a word for that.
Perhaps where CO2 is concerned. I would say the USA has done pretty good lately with nitrate and sulfur reductions.
*sigh* OK, mel, I give up. Enjoy your little fantasy about technology not existing.
Obama pays lip service to energy concerns; that's all.
You keep saying there is all this investment capital in new technologies. I have been actively trying for over a year to get one energy project backed. So far, all I can do is proceed as personal finances allow. Now, either give me some names and contact info, or let it go. You obviously don't have the faintest idea what you are talking about.
There is little crueler than holding a picture of a feast in front of a starving man.
As I understand the proposal, more like heat pumps. About the same size, about the same cost.
You don't understand what's possible.
There's that blind faith in the system again.
They will not be assessed on thier merits toward carbon sequestration. They have been assessed on their profit to those in power.
Different systems, mel... need a scorecard?
Scientists at Columbia University are developing a carbon dioxide (CO2) scrubber device that removes one ton of CO2 from the air every day, says the Heartland Institute.
While some see the scrubber as an efficient and economical way to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide, many environmentalists oppose the technology because it allows people to use fossil fuels and emit carbon in the first place.
According to Columbia University physicist Klaus Lackner, who is leading the research team
OK, if you are going to continue to act dumb, this conversation is over. Good talking to you mel.
TheRedneck