posted on Oct, 29 2009 @ 02:57 AM
If you look at the hard stats, Japan has fared worse in the current downturn than America or the other "G8" developed nations. Japan has a rapidly
ageing population that will need healthcare, and a dwindling number of young workers in the pipeline to support them. They import 40%-60% of their
food, depending on whose stats you trust. (Compare that to the US, which is still the world's largest food EXPORTER). Japan's government debt is
almost twice its GNP...a level far above that of the US or any other developed nation. A lot of the manufacturing there is moving offshore to cheaper
places, like China -- the same process that started in the US in the 80s. It's not a question of "will happen." Its already happening there. The
only thing that might cushion the blow is a higher level of social harmony and a high personal savings rate. But the numbers look grim.
As for China and India, well, that's a more controversial kettle of fish. There are positives and negatives to be weighed. But both countries have
VERY opaque financial systems, and there is a lot of fabrication of statistics going on, so its hard to see the "real situation." Remember, too,
that each of these countries has a billion-plus people, most of whom are desperately poor. Although they do have large and growing middle classes,
these represent a very small portion of their total populations. These nations also lack the material resources to extend these benefits to their
whole populations, which could cause grave social problems a few years down the line as the 90% mired in desperate, stone-age-level poverty gets
increasingly angry at the small elites. The poor in the developed world live much better than the poor in India or China. China, in particular, has a
long history of peasant revolts. I doubt its a history that has had its final chapter written. On the plus side, these countries are scrambling to
snap up resources around the globe. Can they do so ahead of the collapsing US/Eurozone economies? Stay tuned, campers...