To nuke or not to nuke, that is the ?

I've been spending some time contemplating this (and using big words in the process), and ultimately I've come to no conclusion. It'd be interesting to hear other views on this.

BACKGROUND: Despite repeated rumored and published threats that Al Qaeda was planning to target a nuke attack on American soil (see numerous posts on the alleged American Hiroshima plot), to date, no such attack has occurred. This despite Osama binLaden gaining alleged approval from clerics to kill 3+ million Americans. Most recently, this rumored surface in a MSM outlet that Al Qaeda planned to use suitcase nukes and fly then over select cities in small planes.

PREMISE: Despite this plan being reported since 2005, no nuke attack has occurred, either on American soil or elsewhere. Why not?

I see three distinct possibilities here:

1. Al Qaeda does not actually have a bomb.
   
2. Al Qaeda does have a bomb, but incapable of using it.
   
3. Al Qaeda does have a bomb, but is being checked by an unstated U.S. policy that if any nuke is used on U.S. soil or elsewhere, then certain countries in the Mideast will be nuked in response without question. A modified MAD scenario.
   

To me, the most likely scenario is Al Qaeda is all hype, and it has no bomb. Setting aside some theories that Al Qaeda is a made up organization to galvanize the world against certain Mideast countries, the fact that the organization has never used it would indicate that, in fact, it does not have one and was never able to acquire one. The threats, then, are used by Al Qaeda to incite fear at times when it is needing to prompt some political pressure.

The second scenario is the least likely, IMO. It's been said that any bomb the group does have is likely an old suitcase nuke, perhaps from Russia. And as such, these things are unreliable and perhaps even unworkable.

To me, if Al Qaeda had such devices, it would be able to create a working device somehow. This network has a huge pool of financing, so money is not an object. Even if unable to actually detonate the nuke, Al Qaeda could easily use the components for a dirty bomb, a scenario which itself hasn't happened.

The third is a quaint theory, and one that could be true. If Al Qaeda does have a bomb or bombs, it may be being held back due to an unstated policy by the U.S. that it would retaliate against certain countries and cities in the Mideast without question or hesitation. A sort of MAD plan. Even if the targeted country had no direct connection to the Al Qaeda nuke attack, it would be still targeted. This could have an affect to have certain Mideast governments keep the reins on the organization's leaders from executing its strike.

Well, anyway, these are my thoughts. Anyone else have an opinion?

I dont think Al Qaeda would mind if we nuked the middle east in retalitaions for a nuke on US soil. Actually, I think they would welcome it. It has the potential to turn the world against America. Millions of innocent people in the Middle East are killed/wounded because a group of militants with no connection to their lives decided to nuke America? Not the best for Public Relations.
I do not think this would happen though, since we would investigate when a nuke goes off, and not just shoot our missiles at random.

If a nuclear blast were to occur in America, I think it would have been planted by the government. There are just too many things that can go wrong if you try to ship a nuclear bomb into the country.

I feel that this bomb is all hype as well, at least I will until I see a bright flash of light and am burned to ashes

I would say that there are almost certainly a small number of various sorts of nuclear weapons (as well as partial bombs, materials, equipment and knowledge) in the wrong hands - for me that is kind of a given by now.

But so far as AQ having one? Well I don't think they are in physical possession of one... But I'm also not in the school of thinking that if they did have one they would use it at the first available opportunity - something that big would be used to maximum effect.

Also the things don't just sit on a shelf untill they are ready to be used - they require specialist up keep and they need to be prepped right before use (I once heard that these SADM nukes aka suitcase bombs, need certain materials for the trigger that only have a half life of a couple of weeks - so that would have to be produced almost at the last minute) - So with that in mind I'm inclined to say they don't have them..... But should they want one they know the locations? Have a plan to liberate them from the owners?? (that's pure conjecture of course) But that would make more sense, let the pros look after them.

Should AQ ever actually come into possesion of one - maybe one of the ones that has been lost in a very difficult location and recovered I think they would sell it on to a nation such as North Korea so they can study it... And those funds / favors would be put to use instead.

I do like the modified MAD suggestion - that does sound very plausable to me should there be a bomb...