Egypt will be Ground Zero for Swine/Bird Flu combination, %33.33 mortality not current %0.56

Just in case you've forgotten about Bird(Avian) Flu, or you're freaking out about the mild Swine flu, here's some information from WHO regarding the current outbreak of Avian Flu in Egypt.

WHO - Avian Flu Situation in Egypt

1 July 2009 -- The Ministry of Health of Egypt has reported 3 new confirmed human case of avian influenza A(H5N1).

The first case is a 1-year old male from Domiat Governorate. His symptoms started on 1 June 2009. He was admitted to hospital on 2 June, where he received oseltamivir treatment. The patient has recovered and was discharged on 9 June.

The second case is a 4-year old female from Dakhlia Governorate. Her symptoms started on 5 June 2009. She was admitted to hospital on 6 June, where she received oseltamivir treatment. The patient has recovered and was discharged on 14 June.

The third case is a 1-year old male from Kaleen District, Kefr El Sheikh Governorate. His symptoms started on 15 June 2009. He was admitted to Kefr El Sheikh Fever Hospital on 16 June 2009, where he received oseltamivir treatment, and is in a stable condition.

Investigations into the source of infection indicated that all three cases had close contact with dead and/or sick poultry.

The cases were confirmed by the Egyptian Central Public Health Laboratories.

Of the 81 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, 27 have been fatal.

It definitely puts Swine Flu into perspective.

Global swine flu deaths top 700 - BBC

H1N1 swine flu has killed more than 700 people around the world since the outbreak began four months ago, says the World Health Organization (WHO).

Some 125,000 laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported worldwide - but the number of actual cases far exceeds that.

So the Avian Flu has a %33.33 mortality rate, compared to %0.56 for Swine Flu(at the most since there are surely far more unreported/untested cases).

It's just that Swine flu has a really good agent that's getting it lots of airtime on MSM. You hardly hear of Avian Flu.

But Egypt has the Swine flu too:

Swine Flu Unstoppable

By press time, the Ministry of Health announced the number of swine flu cases in the country reached 80, with a 21-year-old British woman who arrived at Luxor International Airport from London with flu-like symptoms.

On Monday, the ministry had announced another case of H1N1. According to ministry spokesperson Abdel-Rahman Shahin, the case is of an Egyptian eight-year-old boy who arrived with his family from Greece on 30 June.

The patient then travelled to Assiut where he experienced flu-like symptoms on 2 July and was admitted to a hospital in Assiut where he is currently being treated. Health Ministry also announced the recovery of 68 patients, while 12 are still hospitalised.

This was preceded by an earlier announcement over the weekend that 78 cases of infection had been found in Egypt. Shahin said six cases included a six-year-old Egyptian girl, a 17-year- old Somali boy and a 56-year-old British man, all of whom recently arrived from England. Three other cases -- a 21-year-old male student from Chile, a 22-year-old woman and a 24-year- old man -- arrived on the same flight from Chile. The patients are currently being treated with Tamiflu, Shahin said.

If the high mortality of the Avian Flu and the ease of infection of the Swine Flu were to mix, well, God Help us is all I can say.

But at the moment, the report of the Avian Flu in Egypt should put the severity of the Swine Flu into some sort of perspective.



[edit on 21-7-2009 by kiwifoot]

could it be because it has the right environment for the flu to kill?
Hot/dry environment?

no idea but could make sense

reply to post by warrenb


Yeah you may well be right.

That would make sense. I'll ask CultureD, look her up she's on the ball with the flu(phds and stuff in bio-chem). It's one of those outbreaks that rarely makes the news.

reply to post by warrenb


I just found this:

National Geographic

Summer to Kill Swine Flu in U.S. and Mexico?
John Roach
for National Geographic News
April 30, 2009

The hot and humid days of summer could prove a death knell for the swine flu outbreak currently sweeping around the globe—at least in the U.S., Mexico, and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, experts say.

"If [the new swine flu strain] is like other types of influenza that have been tested, it would have a lower transmission rate in the summer," said Jeffrey Shaman, an assistant professor at Oregon State University in Corvallis, who studies how the water cycle affects the spread of disease.


Earlier this year, Shaman found that flu viruses survive longer and transmit more easily during low absolute humidity, a condition commonly associated with cold, dry winter weather.

So semingly the virus shouldn't thrive in Egypt!

Strange.

Ummmh, well....

Maybe I'm a little confused, but I thought Bird Flu had a 50+% fatality rate?

Also, why Egypt "Ground Zero"? Do the recent Bird Flu deaths in Asia count?

Or maybe there's no swine over there?...i dunno?....

Or is it the vax that won't less us relax (max)

Originally posted by sonjah1
Ummmh, well....

Maybe I'm a little confused, but I thought Bird Flu had a 50+% fatality rate?

Also, why Egypt "Ground Zero"? Do the recent Bird Flu deaths in Asia count?

Or maybe there's no swine over there?...i dunno?....

Or is it the vax that won't less us relax (max)

Heya! You are right that generally speaking the mortality rate is higher, but in Egypt:

Mortality rate: 81cases/27deaths = %33.33

Have a look on this page on the WHO website.

There have been 11 cases of Avian Flu outside Egypt (30 cases) in 2009. And in the last four years the cases in Asia have been steadily decreasing for the most part.

So as you say, there is Avian Flu in SE Asia, but at the moment it's Egypt where the rate of infection is increasing.

OK--but I was talking about recent *deaths*, not cases in Asia?

reply to post by sonjah1


I don't know, the deaths in Egypt are more recent, if you go to the 'cumulative total' for April, Egypt has 0, China still has 4 and Vietnam has 3, the most recent one says 4/4/4 so the Egyption ones have happened since April.

Have there been others recently? Since the July Cumulative table?

I'll have a look!

reply to post by kiwifoot


This has been my biggest concern of the entire event.

Kids are dying in Egypt- 2 now, I believe, who we are told had H1N1- with university quarantines and high H5N1 rates, I suspect the work on the combo H1N1/H5N1 vaccine is the pressing matter. Of perhaps- when the gov speaks of multiple vaccines, one is H1N1, one H5N1, and one seasonal...

If they reassort, however, we're about to see a world-changing event, like the Justinian Plague, the Black Death, etc.

Maybe it's time to move to the mountains- seems as though we have 6 weeks, tops, before school starts- and then.. well, it's going to burn like a Cali brush fire, and if H5N1 gets out, with H1N1 or not, mortality will be betwen 50- and 90%

reply to post by kiwifoot


My friend who does Anthro work in Sulawesi told me the H5N1 rates of death are like Ebola or Marburg- 80-90%. Maybe the death rates are lower in Egypt- will have to check

reply to post by CultureD


Hi mate! Yeah I believe you're right, I just thought I'd go off of the stats from WHO (big mistake?) - 27/81 - rather than quote the usual mortality rate.

Either way this could go very bad!