Detecting Earthquakes Before They Strike

The moderate Alum Rock earthquake, magnitude 5.4, rattled the southern San Francisco Bay in late 2007. For those who experienced it at close quarters, it was a brief, hard jolt. Overall this event was unremarkable – except that one of QuakeFinder's CalMagNet stations, which are spread over California along the San Andreas Fault, was barely 2 km from the epicenter.

A new paper, just published by "Natural Hazards and Earth System Science," describes that three suspected pre-earthquake indicators were recorded by this QuakeFinder station: (i) short bursts of electromagnetic radiation, 10-30 sec long, increasing in number over the last two weeks before the quake, (ii) a 14-hours long episode of intense air ionization on the day before the earthquake, and (iii) a continuous wave of ULF magnetic pulsations, lasting for nearly 1 hour during the time of the most intense air ionization. In addition, satellites picked up enhanced infrared radiation emitted from several areas around the earthquake site. Together these observations make a strong case that they are all related to this earthquake BEFORE it struck.

With observations like these the future for earthquake early warning looks bright. Once the basic physical processes are understood, we can bring to bear many different techniques, both space-bound and on the ground, each capable of providing a different piece of the puzzle.

This paper can be downloaded from:

www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net...

This is certainly a good news, this reminds me when the long period event was discovered as an indicator for an impending volcanic eruption.

What I want to know right now is whether there's a rising trend in earthquake activities around the globe. As far as I know, there's none, if you know something regarding this, do share.


Interview video.

reply to post by Jazzyguy


Hi Jazzy Guy,

A friend of mine "Silo 13" told me this thread existed. So.. I checked it out and it is of interest; thanks Silo 13.

The equipment that the people use in the video is good equipment if the pressures are right. As you can see from what is written the system was within 2 kilometers of the epicenter, or in other words basically one mile away.

The earthquake was a M5.4 which is a fairly powerful earthquake. I can see where the equipment that was used could do as they stated that it did at that range. The range for that equipment is extremely limited. What they stated about the detection I can believe is correct. But the system is very limited in detection distance and depth.

As for an increase in Earthquakes, there is an increase in the larger earthquakes occurring on average for about the last 30 years or so. The increase in larger earthquakes is expected to slowly average more up until some time after we pass through the Galactic Plane. Decrease in the number of larger earthquakes should take place possibly after 2027 depending on what occurs during the period 2012 to 2027.

Larger destructive earthquakes are very easy to predict with extreme accuracy if historical data has been collected at linked areas. The Sumatra 2004 earthquake should have been very easy to forecast. Its radiation must have been detectable for well over 500 miles in all directions, and possibly out to 700-800 miles in some directions. This easily detectable radiation would have had its pulses 24 hours a day and 7 days a week for possibly 2 months or so before it struck, and up to approximately 1.5 days afterwards.

Soon drone craft will locate many earthquakes before they strike.



[edit on 21-6-2009 by RussianScientists]

Well, Ive been observing that Indonesia gets a major quake every month. I started noticing this last year. I don't know if it's normal or something's amiss?

First, link to the source.

Detecting Earthquakes Before They Strike - Space.com


reply to post by RussianScientists

Any personal prediction regarding a big one, RussianScientists?


reply to post by eldard

As far as I know it's not exactly "normal", but it does happen sometimes around this region (the ring of fire).


If I find other articles regarding earthquake prediction I'll post them here.

reply to post by Jazzyguy


Hi Jazzy Guy,

As to predicting big ones accurately... there is nothing to it if you know what you are doing.



[edit on 22-6-2009 by RussianScientists]

New Method To Measure Faults May Help Predict Quakes

Researchers at the Carnegie Institution say that they have discovered a method of measuring and monitoring geological fault lines beneath the Earth’s crust—a development that could significantly enhance scientists’ ability to accurately predict earthquakes.

Geologists previously had no means with which to detect and measure the fluctuating strength of faults that are hidden beneath the Earth’s surface. Now, however, researchers from the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Terrestrial Magnetism have teamed up with experts from Rice University and the University of California, Berkeley and have successfully used a hyper-sensitive seismometer to measure barely perceptible changes in earthquake waves moving through the San Andreas Fault zone in California.

I hope any earthquake research will strike gold soon, the earth is getting pretty restless.