Pattern Recognition by Michael Shermer

Michael Shermer publishes The Skeptic www.skeptic.com, -I was pleased to find that he had an article on page 36 of this months Scientific American., I have taken the liberty of typing in one paragraph for you, in hopes it helps you as much as it helped me.:


He is talking about strange beliefs and the ability to note patterns:

"The problem is that we did not evolve a baloney detection device in our brains to discriminate between true and false patterns. So we make two types of errors: a type I error, or false positive, is believing a pattern is real when it is not; a type II error or false negative, is not believing a pattern is real when it is. If you believe that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is just the wind (a type I error), you are more likely to survive than if you believe the rustle in the grass is just the wind when it is a dangerous predator (a type II error). Because the cost of making a type I error is less than the cost of making a type II error and because there is no time for careful deliberation between patternicities in the split second world of predator-prey interactions, natural selection would have favored those animals most likely to assume patterns are real."

[edit on 3-6-2009 by seataka]

patternicities. I really like that word, and I think the writing has merit. I've thought many times that that was one of my strengths -- pattern recognition -- but I've never thought of it in terms of analyzing survival data.

Very interesting!

A side note if i may , type 111 ; gtf outta here!

reply to post by Scotlandshope


edit: NEVERmind. I get it. You were creating a third designation.

[edit on 3/6/09 by argentus]

A great post, thanks, I really like his work, here is a little video you might enjoy, of Shermer talking about why we believe strange things.