SCI: How Could an Event in 1997 Cause a Pandemic in 2009? What Happened?

Originally posted by soficrow
Corporations with the capability to do complex risk assessments had it figured out long ago.

Panasonic Recalls Families Over Bird Flu Pandemic Fears

The mainstream articles about this have all disappeared, but Panasonic's policy statement is still online.

G&G Risk Management Activities
There is also a Business Continuity Plan (BCP) to counter the risk of large natural disasters. By fiscal 2010, all business domain companies should have a BCP in place for at least one location.

Panasonic will also formulate BCP for other risks that may threaten business operations, such as a pandemic flu outbreak.

www.panasonic.net...

Everyone figured H5N1 bird flu would be the culprit - and it still could be for the second wave...

But the point is - Panasonic was analyzing the system, and how it was changing. ...We're long past the point where a single event can wreck - or fix - what's happening.

You know Sofi! this message from Panasonic is the most interesting piece of the puzzle I have found so far!

In February this message came from Panasonic - at the same time we had this incident at Baxters?

Panasonic want to take home all their personnel before the air traffic chaos is breaking out in October they say.

How on Earth do they know this? - and why do they know this and are spilling the beans?

What do they know that we don't?

The only thing I have found out about Panasonic regarding this is:


-They have a big special research section only for H5N1 at the mother company 'Matsu$hita Electric Works' in Japan.

-This H5N1 section has well known professors from Japanese Univerities working for them.

-This H5N1 section specialises in filtering products - like in Hepa Filters for air conditioning systems.


This H5N1 research section of theirs must suspect that something really bad is about to happen?


I can't get this damn thing about Panasonic out of my head! [ ]

WHO perplexed by Panasonic's move to repatriate staff over flu fears

www.cbc.ca...


[edit on 28-5-2009 by Chevalerous]

Originally posted by Zykloner

Starting to lean towards blaming man for the new bug myself.

Uh huh. The idea that indirect effects initiated complex interactions does NOT take the blame away from man. The idea that the new bug emerged 'naturally' in a contaminated environment does not mean humans are not culpable - or liable. ...It just means we have created a world that goes WAYYY beyond simple, single cause-and-effect relationships.


Thanks Zyk. You keep up the good work too.

Originally posted by Chevalerous

Originally posted by soficrow
Corporations with the capability to do complex risk assessments had it figured out long ago.

Panasonic Recalls Families Over Bird Flu Pandemic Fears

...
Everyone figured H5N1 bird flu would be the culprit - and it still could be for the second wave...

But the point is - Panasonic was analyzing the system, and how it was changing. ...We're long past the point where a single event can wreck - or fix - what's happening.

You know Sofi! this message from Panasonic is the most interesting piece of the puzzle I have found so far!

In February this message came from Panasonic - at the same time we had this incident at Baxters?

There might be a direct relationship there, but I don't think it's that relevant in the larger context.

It's all about the system - and the system was/is set to explode, and take off on its own a new direction. Maybe a single event triggered it, maybe the Baxter thing was the last straw on the camel's back, maybe it was something else nobody wants us to know about. Doesn't matter, imo.

It's all about the system - and the fact that man changed the system so much that now it's changing itself.

Focusing on Baxter or other single scapegoats plays into their game - and obscures this most important reality: our planet's bio-systems are mutating out of control along with the bugs.

There is NO single cause. Almost every industrial activity and consumer product has contributed to creating the situation.

Panasonic want to take home all their personnel before the air traffic chaos is breaking out in October they say.

How on Earth do they know this? - and why do they know this and are spilling the beans?

What do they know that we don't?

FYI - Panasonic is just acting on what microbiologists have been saying for years: it's coming next flu season, fall, Northern Hemisphere. ...Predictions have been wrong before, so everyone tends to be cautious now and not risk their reputations. But Panasonic ran the numbers and decided to take the risk.

This H5N1 research section of theirs must suspect that something really bad is about to happen?

Yep. They do. And so does everyone who knows anything about microbial evolution and systems analysis. ...But no one knows enough to say exactly when with absolute certainty. ...It's just that Panasonic is into electronics - meaning it is not putting its professional reputation on the line by taking decisive action. Acting "in time" is a win-win strategy for Panasonic - whereas for the WHO, decisive early action is lose-lose (all things considered).

Thanks Sofi!

Yeah I now understand what you mean: "It's all about the system"

I also remember I read some information a couple of months back that the researchers at this H5N1 section of Matsu$hita/Panasonic, had received some interesting info about H5N1 (un-official inside information?) coming from a science community source contact of theirs in China.

(You know that kind of information the Chinese goverment are trying to hide! - like some incident that had occured with the H5N1 evolution already? - and maybe something related to the H5N1 outbreak in poultry in Jiangsu in December, 2008. When more than 300000 birds were culled?)

And that information was apparently a part of their decision to kick their plan into full gear!?

Let me see if I can find that researcher forum where I read about this, again!

Could be BS?

Originally posted by Chevalerous
Thanks Sofi!

Yeah I now understand what you mean: "It's all about the system"

You're welcome.

I also remember I read some information a couple of months back ...some interesting info about H5N1 (un-official inside information?) ...

(You know that kind of information the Chinese goverment are trying to hide! - like some incident that had occured with the H5N1 evolution already? ...

And that information was apparently a part of their decision to kick their plan into full gear!?

...Could be BS?

Probably not BS. ...Everyone is watching for "signs."

...The opening post here itemizes some local points of self-organizing criticality. ...The 'big one' will come when the local stuff converges and goes global - that's what everyone's watching for.

So every time something happens, they're asking, "Is this IT?"

Check out this thread: Beyond Bird Flu: The Perfect Microbial Storm

(You'll like it. )

The H1N1 swine flu pandemic's "second wave" likely will be the long-predicted "perfect microbial storm" - and an equally predictable product of artifically accelerated evolution.

Artificially Accelerated Evolution in the Twenty-first Century

In 2006 when this material was compiled, publicly accessible data on microbial evolution - and the "perfect microbial storm" - dealt exclusively with natural organisms. However, chimeras and artificial man-made organisms add to the evolutionary mix, and their roles in the coming 'microbial storm' need to be considered.

Chimeras are artificial lifeforms with a mixture of two or more species in one body - genetically engineered by combining genes from different species. Aside from tomatoes with fish genes, our world now has a population of man-mice, man-pig, man-monkey and numerous other artificial hybrids. As the most dangerous diseases threatening mankind today are zoonoses, or animal diseases that can be transmitted to humans, the role(s) chimeras might play in the planet's current bio-dynamic cannot be dismissed.

Artificial organisms are micro-organisms - part natural, and part "machine" - created by using biotechnology, nanotechnology and computing technology, sometimes called nano-bio-bots. 1990's wisdom said that artificial organisms, and their impacts, were 50 to 100 years in the future. BUT - the main characteristics required for artificial organisms to evolve, and impact natural organisms and natural evolution, all have been announced publicly over the last few years. These characteristics include self-power, and self-assembly or self-replication.

I now am wondering what role chimeras and artificial organisms are playing in the hybridization and evolution of 'natural' organisms, and the threat of this coming "perfect microbial storm."


SOME BACKGROUND

Natural Organisms and "The Perfect Microbial Storm"

2004: Emerging zoonoses and pathogens of public health significance URL

Infectious diseases have helped shape the course of human history and there is every indication that these diseases will continue to be significant global events. A number of driving forces and societal changes are now creating an unprecedented environment that favours the expansion and perhaps even acceleration of a group of these diseases termed emerging or re-emerging zoonoses.

In a recent publication by the United States Institute of Medicine entitled Microbial Threats to Health, Emergence, Detection, and Response, the authors suggested that a group of factors are swirling and converging to create a perfect microbial storm. This metaphor helps describe the conditions and dynamics that have produced a new era of emerging diseases that began approximately 25 years ago. From the centre, or eye, of the perfect microbial storm, a group of zoonotic pathogens of significant public health concern are emerging.

Microbes continue to evolve and adapt and now, with the tremendous acceleration and expansion of global trade, human movement and travel and the burgeoning global population of both people and animals, the microbes have an even greater opportunity to adapt, change, and be transported to new hosts and ecosystems, often with catastrophic results. Changes in our weather, climate, ecosystem, animal production systems, economic development, and land use continue to alter the dynamic between hosts, vectors, and microbes in novel ways.

Also see: 2005: Steps must be taken to turn tide of public-microbial war

Chimeras

Animal-Human Hybrids URL

Scientists have begun blurring the line between human and animal by producing chimeras - a hybrid creature that's part human, part animal. ...human cells with rabbit eggs... pigs with human blood... mice with human brains

"Research projects that create human-animal chimeras risk disturbing fragile ecosystems, endanger health, and affront species integrity."

"One doesn't have to be religious or into animal rights to think this doesn't make sense," (says Jeremy Rifkin). "It's the scientists who want to do this. They've now gone over the edge into the pathological domain." "

Artificial Organisms and "The Perfect Microbial Storm"

...a new class of organisms is likely to emerge. These organisms will be artificial in the sense that they will originally be designed by humans. However, they will reproduce, and will "evolve" into something other than their original form, they will be "alive" under any reasonable definition of the word. ...The pace of evolutionary change will be extraordinarily rapid. ...The impact on humanity and the biosphere could be enormous, larger than the industrial revolution, nuclear weapons, or environmental pollution. We must take steps now to shape the emergence of artificial organisms.

Source: Articifial Life: The Coming Evolution. Farmer, J. Doyne, and Alletta d'A. Belin in Artificial Life II from Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Proc. Vol. X, Redwood City Calif.: Addison-Wesley, 1992, p. 815.

"Breakthroughs" in Nano- and Biotechnology - a Few Highlights

Nano-bio-bots URL

Tiny robots powered by living muscle have been created by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles. ...The devices were formed by "growing" rat cells on microscopic silicon chips, the researchers report in the journal Nature Materials. ...Less than a millimetre long, the miniscule robots can move themselves without any external source of power.

"Nanotech researchers have built tiny self-assembling machines that even grow their own muscles from cells taken from living animals. ...Besides just blurring the line between organism and machine, the first of these nano-bio-bots may signal a breakthrough in how to mass produce bio-machines: The hybrid devices were grown on silicon chips using the same principles and some of the same technology employed to make integrated circuits. ...The work is a dramatic example of the marriage of biotechnology with the tiny world of nanotechnology. ...the cells assemble, then they undergo a change, so that they actually form a muscle. ..."Now you have a device that has a skeleton and muscles on it to allow it to move." ...Under a microscope, you can see the tiny, two-footed "bio-bots" crawl around.

"I can make hundreds of thousands as easily as I can make one," said lead nanotechnology researcher Carlo Montemagno of the University of California, Los Angeles. ..."They're absolutely alive," Professor Montemagno told BBC News. "I mean the cells actually grow, multiply and assemble - they form the structure themselves. So the device is alive."

***

Fly-eating robot powers itself URL

Customizable, Self-assembling Nanotubes

***

"One of the projects DARPA is currently supporting is work by a team at Michigan State University's College of Engineering, who are developing
reconfigurable micro-robots for use in military, intelligence and law enforcement ...." URL

***

Pentagon plans cyber-insect army URL

The Pentagon's defence scientists want to create an army of cyber-insects that can be remotely controlled to check out explosives and send transmissions. ...The idea is to insert micro-systems at the pupa stage, when the insects can integrate them into their body, so they can be remotely controlled later. ...A similar scheme aimed at manipulating wasps failed when they flew off to feed and mate.

Ed. Note: What happened to the wasps - and their nano-parts - after they "flew off to feed and mate"? ...re: Honey bee crisis?

***

"The combined integration of PNI and gold with silicon-based microdevices has allowed us to fabricate the world's first self-assembled muscle-powered micro-robot system to piezoelectric materials which produce electricity when compressed. If successful this will allow glucose, described as a ubiquitous renewable resource, to be used to create power. URL

***

Solar Nano-Power URL

"These flexible photovoltaics could harness half of the sun's spectrum not previously accessed." ..."We made particles from semiconductor crystals which were exactly two, three or four nanometres in size. .." ...Then, they tuned the tiny nanocrystals to catch light at very short wavelengths. ..."The key was finding the right molecules to wrap around our nanoparticles... Too long and the particles couldn't deliver their electrical energy to our circuit; too short, and they clumped up, losing their nanoscale properties. It turned out that one nanometer eight carbon atoms strung together in a chain was 'just right'."

***

Super Microbes Eat Radioactive Waste URL ...sponsors at the Energy Department doubt the public is ready for the release of this laboratory-engineered bug into the environment. It might eat nuclear wastes, but they worry about what else might it do...

Molecular evolution by design URL

A group at UIUC has announced a process that may be called managed evolution. It involves using multiple steps where by successive approximation they evolve a protein in the direction of having the properties they desire. This significantly reduces the amount of labor involved in the evolution and screening process.

The authors conclude that their new method may provide "a general approach to engineering biomolecules and biosystems such as receptors, enzymes, antibodies, ribosymes, DNAzymes and viruses with novel functions."

Evolution

The notion that the world around us is continuously evolving is a platitude; we rarely grasp its full implications. We do not ordinarily think, for example, of an epidemic disease changing its character as the epidemic spreads. Nor do we think of evolution in plants and animals ocurring in a matter of days or weeks, although it does. And we do not ordinarily imagine the green world around us as a scene of constant, sophisticated chemical warfare, with plants producing pesticides in response to attack, and insects developing resistance. But that is what happens, too.

If we were to grasp the true nature of nature - if we could comprehend the real meaning of evolution - then we could envision a world in which every living plant, insect, and animal species is changing at every instant, in response to every other living plant, insect, and animal. This restless and perpetual change, as inexorable and unstoppable as the waves and tides, implies a world in which all human actions necessarily have uncertain effects. The total system we call the biosphere is so complicated that we cannot know in advance the consequences of anything that we do. ...That is why even our most enlightened past efforts have had undesirable outcomes - either because we did not understanbd enough, or because the ever-changing world responded to our actions in unexpected ways.

Sometime in the twenty-first century, our self-deluded recklessness will collide with our growing technological power. One area where this will occur is in the meeting point of nanotechnology, biotechnology, and computer technology. What all three have in common is the ability to release self-replicating entities into the environment.

Source: Prey. (c) 2002 by Michael Crichton. Inroduction.

Nano-Bio-Bot Evolution

In the Golem project (Genetically Organized Lifelike Electro Mechanics) URL we conducted a set of experiments in which simple electro-mechanical systems evolved from scratch to yield physical locomoting machines. Like biological lifeforms whose structure and function exploit the behaviors afforded by their own chemical and mechanical medium, our evolved creatures take advantage of the nature of their own medium - thermoplastic, motors, and artificial neurons. We thus achieve autonomy of design and construction using evolution in a limited universe physical simulation, coupled to off-the-shelf rapid manufacturing technology. This is the first time robots have been robotically designed and robotically fabricated.

Also see: The New Military

Nanotechnology and biotechnology are BIG business - and most new "consumer products" contain nanoparticles. So any fears that nanoparticles might escape are practically groundless. We're already buying the little suckers - paying to rub them on our faces, eat them, and spray them in our homes. ...Our only defense here is claiming "lack of fully informed consent."

But - the nanoparticles used in consumer products probably were not designed to self-assemble and replicate. They might anyway, and they might hybridize in nature with microbes, but they weren't designed to.

Arguably though, the real problem comes from nano-bio-bots designed to self-assemble, replicate and self-power, and from genetically engineered artificial organisms.

Presumably, the laboratories where they are made are constructed to prevent their escape.

But can we guarantee that nano-bio-bots and artifical organisms don't escape from commercial laboratories? How?

IMO - the opposite is pretty much guaranteed: nano-bio-bots and other artificial organisms have escaped, and are replicating in the natural world.

Assuming nano-bio-bots and artificial organisms have escaped from the lab, are they cross-breeding with natural microbes to exacerbate the coming "perfect microbial storm"?

Any thoughts?


Researched and written in 2006. More here: The Perfect Microbial Storm


sofi

It's obvious what's happening - just not how it works.

New research is tackling the issue, and looking for the mechanisms... The link between molecular evolution and mammalian evolution is becoming recognized as fundamental.

Evolution speeds up in the tropics

.....The authors propose two reasons why even warm-blooded animals may evolve faster in warmer climates. The first, known as the Red Queen hypothesis, suggests that because the other organisms that interact with mammals, such as parasites and plants, are undergoing faster evolution, there is a coevolutionary pressure for mammals to keep up. "The biotic environment is changing more rapidly, and therefore the mammals are evolving more rapidly in response," Gillman said.

Alternatively, behavioral adaptations to temperate climates, such as hibernation and torpor, may reduce the annual average metabolic rate of mammals at high latitudes and elevations. This in turn could decrease the chance of a germline mutation that may spread through the population. The paper can't distinguish between the two, Rohde said, but "I suspect the combination of both will be found for mammals."

....Another area in need of research is the link between the rates of molecular evolution and the patterns of species richness. "No one knows whether these intriguing patterns of microevolutionary change are in fact going to be drivers of speciation," said Mittelbach. "So there's still a fundamental step here that's missing."

I watched a CBC news program last night about how a (previously) tropical disease called cryptococcus gatii is now endemic on the east side of Vancouver Island in Canada. ...The disease can be deadly.

The date of cryptococcus gatii's appearance was 1999. The conclusion was that (likely) climate change allowed the disease to migrate and establish in Canada.

Seems to me that several factors likely converged here - changes in the micro-environment due to 'pollution' and industrial contamination as well as climate change and who knows what else.

Anyway - that 1999 turning point is quite significant. ...I recall being on about weird pandemics of "diseases of civilization," herpes and new mutations appearing back then - and speculating in the early 2000's that the Bush admin was working to hide the truth about it and distracting the public with terrorism and wars... Need to get back to that methinks.

Originally posted by soficrow
Corporations with the capability to do complex risk assessments had it figured out long ago.

Panasonic Recalls Families Over Bird Flu Pandemic Fears

The mainstream articles about this have all disappeared, but Panasonic's policy statement is still online.

Yes, most mainstream articles have disappeared, but I was able to find one from AFP that's still online and the link is HERE.

Originally posted by Chevalerous
...In February this message came from Panasonic - at the same time we had this incident at Baxters?

Panasonic want to take home all their personnel before the air traffic chaos is breaking out in October they say.

How on Earth do they know this? - and why do they know this and are spilling the beans?

What do they know that we don't?
[edit on 28-5-2009 by Chevalerous]

Yes, they made the announcement in the same time as the "Baxter event" occurred. I tracked down a report (via google cache) that was prepared by Professor Dr MuDr Roman Prymula CSc, for the Czech Ministry of Health and which resides under the "url" of the Czech President's office for that Ministry. (Btw "MuDr" means "MD". He also has another doctorate.)

This report was prepared in English and hence was not for public circulation here. (In that case it would have to have been produced with a Czech version attached as the law requires.) It was most likely for a private conference with other EU medical personnel. The nature of the pdf document's layout strongly suggests it was used in a presentation.

Members can access the html version HERE and on the first page can also download a copy of the pdf file.

(I strongly recommend that members obtain the pdf version. The more copies of this that are held outside of my country, the better. My govt may not be best pleased if they find out I've posted that link on ATS but if they leave their documents where people can find them without any "hacking", then as far as I'm concerned they are in the public domain.)

In that report, Prof Prymula gives very precise details as to the timing of this "event" and also comments on what may have been the potential outcome. He also refers to an anthrax "accident" that happened in Russia in the 1970's. I guess most people never heard about that one.

I think that in light of this thread's subject matter, members may find his report of some value. I emphasize: it was not for "public consumption" and hence is more likely to be telling the real story. The Professor does not pull his punches. And please note: Prof Prymula is Dean of the Faculty of Military Health Sciences, Hradec Kralove University, Czech Republic -- and Chair of its Dept of Epidemiology. So, I'd say that he knows what he's talking about.

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike



Thank Mike.

I downloaded the file as per your request. ...Prymula's assessment of system inadequacies is good - but would love to hear his talk, not just see the Power Point stuff...

Here's the essence for me:

Contaminated material distributed into 4 countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany,
Slovenia)
* Exposure: lab animals, staff
* Material not for human
* Countermeasures (sampling, observation, testing, Tamiflu) since certain time appropriate
* No human casualties
however…

Baxter H5N1 event

* Human error
* ?GLP
* Initial reluctance in commercial information channels
* Potential – reassortant incident with high impact
* Substantial delay in informing local, national authorities and ECDC, WHO, EC as well
* Gaps in legislation
* Unclear responsibilities
* Careful event evaluation – outcomes not to stop research

Now, multiply this "event" by what? about 1000? maybe? ...and we might have a sense of what's been accidentally released into our environment. And what we haven't been told. And what our governments don't do anything about. And, and...

Then there's all the rest of it, as outlined above.

Doesn't look good, does it?


Also see:
'We...found their lungs are as black as charcoal."

reply to post by soficrow

Glad to assist...

I am only commenting briefly today as I'm not feeling too good. Tummy trouble and maybe flu starting. Don't know yet. Not worried about it though. Just not happy to be feeling off color.

Yes I wish I could have been a fly on the wall when Prof Prymula made his presentation. In fact I wish I could mosey over and have a chat to him about all this. But he's in Hradec Kralove which is a couple of hours' drive from here and I'm not up to it at the moment.

The potential for reassortment that he mentioned was something for concern, for sure. Fortunately in this case it was "potential" and not actual.

Would be nice to know what happened to the material that went to other labs, though. And as you say, there have doubtless been numerous cases like this that never reached the ears of the public. In some cases "national security" gag orders would have done the job and in others the labs/companies themselves just kept their mouths shut I guess. Not exactly the kind of thing they'd want to broadcast, after all.

Okay I'll be keeping eyes and ears open and if anything of interest that's germane to your thread comes up then I'll let you know.

Regards,

Mike

wow this is a great bit of investigative work blown my mind