Swine Flu Incubation...Is anyone watching the numbers?

Today the CDC says that the number of Swine Flu cases in the US has risen to 2254. There has only been (reportedly) one US death so far...but the number of cases confirmed has grown exponentially since first discovered about two weeks ago.

The flu has been confirmed in 44 states as of today. It is almost nationwide now. Impossible to constrain.

So where will we be in a month or two from now? I walk the streets of Manhattan, and no one seems to be worried about Swine Flu, though many pharmacies and stores are now displaying clear signs on their doors that they have hand sanitizers and face masks in stock. I bought some this week just in case.

I am a software developer, and if I were to bio-engineer a virus, program it, I would make it spread as much as possible before it went into "Phase 2". There are a lot of warnings from credible doctors and scientists that the Swine Flu can mutate into something much worse, and even worse, combine with deadly diseases that are not yet airborne, like Avian Flu or even HIV.

I really do feel like there will be tragedy by Winter...and considering the current precarious state of the economy (regardless of what the media reports regarding "green shoots") any panic whatsoever would bring The United States to its knees.

But I am wondering if people are watching the numbers, and also watching...the people. If this flu does get worse, and the numbers start to grow very large. I expect there to be people who just disappear. You wont see them get sick and die. YOU WILL JUST SEE THEM DISAPPEAR.

First it's been around more than two weeks. It apprently started sometime in early april, but probably even earlier than that.

And where will we be two months from now? With over 2000 cases that didn't kill people, and a contained outbreak. The flu won't survive nearly as long when it's hot and dry out, along with a very healthy dose of UV light to kill it.

Also you have to think, is it really 2000 cases? It takes a while to confirm that it's Swine Flu, since the CDC has to examine the culture first and then confirm it. The CDC rarely moves fast to do anything. All these cases could be just confused with Type A Influenza, since it has very similar (if not exact) Symptoms.

I wouldn't worry much, the media doesn't even seem to care about it anymore even.

I agree with the numbers, they are worrying, no mater what anyone says, if you forget the actual number and go on the % increase, its not good. We are averaging a 35% increase daily. You base the number of people and the increase and by the end of the month if it keeps at this pace could be a huge number.
Now as for the actual numbers, most doctors have been orderd to only test the hospitalised paitents. Which means there is a LOT more out there than the numbers show.
I agree that it will probably die down in the summer months, But i do not belive that we have seen the end of it. You have to remember this is world wide, not just in one location, so while its becoming summer and warm here in the U.S. and some other countries, many are going into winter.. which will allow the virus to continue, mutate and circulate back when fall hits here.
I do not belive we have seen the end of this and hope people dont get lulled into a false sence of security because they dont notice anyone sick during the summer. Ever seen a flu of any kind that went around just once? i know i havent. it starts small, then comes back and gets worse.

Hey OP have you seen this thread?

The new flu, an analytical approach



[edit on 9/5/2009 by lightchild]

I doubt there is any sort of conspiracy, but your concern about the flu is well-founded. A less-known fact about flu strains is that a pandemic level virus surfaces, oh, about every thiry to fifty years. The last really bad one we had was the Spanish Flu after WWI, and it killed anywhere from 50 to 100 million in its eighteen month span. I don't remember the exact dates, but there have been two other bad flu outbreaks this century; the last one was in the sixties, if my memory serves me at all. Technically speaking, we're overdue.
If you want to see something scary, you should see the measures China takes to prevent this pandemic from occuring. Its believed that most, if not all, strains of influenza come from a wetland area of China, which is home to all of the waterfowl and swine any flu could possibly need to cross into humans. There are strains of the virus which surface from time to time which are so virulent that entire farms are burned to prevent the spread; I read one case where over one million chickens were slaughtered and burned in such a scenario.
As I said in the beginning, I doubt there is a conspiracy; I'll be the first to tell you that most of the world doesn't take the flu seriously enough, though. Given our major advancements in travel, a man in Tibet could contract a viral strain to which our immunity means nothing, and one of us could wake with a sneeze the next day. Its a matter of when, not if. And when this bug breaks loose, it'll cover the globe within weeks. Don't believe me? Do your research, starting with the 1918 outbreak.

(spelling edit)


[edit on 9-5-2009 by Malfeitor]

Actually I think it infected between 50 to 100 million and only killed about 3% of the people infected. I could be wrong, but Im pretty sure its virulence was actually pretty low.

Shall I say, let us all be thankful this is the swine flu and not EBOLA spreading around. Now that would be scary.

reply to post by wiredamerican


Ebola and bird flue are about the same in the way you die.

reply to post by lightchild


Yes, this is a good thread. I will also go back daily to see updates.

If you don't know by now, it was reported this morning that another person in the US died of Swine Flu on Thursday, bringing the death count in the US to 3 (2 Americans, 1 Mexican National).

reply to post by blc4r4


I heard about the symptoms of Bird Flu. It's pretty bad. You literally drown on your own mucous. They said that people who survive Bird Flu wish that they were dead during the illness, it's so bad.

God forbid Swine Flu mixes with Bird Flu or Ebola Zaire.

Originally posted by severdsoul
I agree with the numbers, they are worrying, no mater what anyone says, if you forget the actual number and go on the % increase, its not good. We are averaging a 35% increase daily. You base the number of people and the increase and by the end of the month if it keeps at this pace could be a huge number.
Now as for the actual numbers, most doctors have been orderd to only test the hospitalised paitents. Which means there is a LOT more out there than the numbers show.
I agree that it will probably die down in the summer months, But i do not belive that we have seen the end of it. You have to remember this is world wide, not just in one location, so while its becoming summer and warm here in the U.S. and some other countries, many are going into winter.. which will allow the virus to continue, mutate and circulate back when fall hits here.
I do not belive we have seen the end of this and hope people dont get lulled into a false sence of security because they dont notice anyone sick during the summer. Ever seen a flu of any kind that went around just once? i know i havent. it starts small, then comes back and gets worse.

Quick rule to calculate the doubling time, rule of 72 i.e 72/35, so every 2 days the amount of infected will double.

WHO update
"As of 07:30 GMT, 10 May 2009, 29 countries have officially reported 4379 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection."

On 12 may we would expect to see about 8500-9000 infected, and on may 14 we would expect like 18.000 infected and so on.

en.wikipedia.org...

reply to post by wiredamerican


I don't know- Ebola kills so quickly it burns out before it's effectively passed, generally. Flu has a longer incubation period- when one is ill and doesn't know it, but can share it- and likes to keep its host well enough, long enough, so it can spread, before inducing death.

Most Ebola cases burn out locally, and unless it's released as a bio-attack in multiple locales simultaneously, it will kill 5-10K people and fizzle. Flu can take out millions. I'm not being glib, I just think that a slow burn epidemic is worse than a quick brush fire, IMHO.