Swine flu will be back in the Fall of 2009

The 1918 flu pandemic started off in the spring of the year. It appeared to fade away but came back with a vengeance in the fall.

I think that we may see history repeating itself with the new swine flu outbreak. Fall is like the perfect storm for spreading disease. The students (vectors for disease transmission ) all go back to school and start to share their germs with each other. Colleges start up with their students housed in high density housing and of course the weather change encourages people to spend time indoors. So, I'm predicting we're going to see the swine flu again towards the end of the year.

The scientist still don't say why there are more deaths in Mexico than other countries so that is a question that I'd like to see answered.

I'd also like to know the formulation that is being proposed for the flu shots this fall.
There seems to be a level of paranoia associated with vaccines in general and I'm curious who will be getting a flu shot this fall. Even if you normally don't take the jab are you going to consider it this year?






[edit on 29-4-2009 by Wildbob77]

I'm certain there will be a vaccine, and I'm sure there are plenty of super-paranoid folks who will avoid taking it, afraid of that NWO thing.

But even if there were some NWO agenda, if a virulent flu is going around that could kill you, one would think you'd still take the vaccine.

Right now, I'm thinking that I will get a flu shot this fall.

I'm usually not one of the first people to get a flu shot but I usually get one.

I haven't had a bad reaction to any of my previous flu shots and I almost never get sick.

Luckily it's still our personal decision this time around whether or not to get the "North American Influenza" shot (to use the WHO-recommended naming strategy for this disease outbreak).

I was part of the 1/4 of the U.S. population in the 1976 swine flu outbreak who was forced to get the vaccination then because I had just started working at a healthcare facility, so our vaccination was mandatory. So will having been vaccinated against that swine flu outbreak help me this year? Time will tell.

Based on what I know now, I would refuse vaccines developed that supposedly will immunize one against the 2009 influenza outbreak. Will I be allowed to refuse, even though I no longer work in the health field? Great question.

On the other issue the OP raised, the issue of timing, where we see mostly mild outbreaks in the spring, followed by a quiet few months and then devastating further outbreaks around August 2009, I'd hope that the mild cases now will be studied carefully so that the possibility of an initial mild illness conferring resistance to the more virulent possible August outbreak can be better understood. It would be preferable, for instance, to know that schools should actually be kept in session now in order to increase everyone's chances of avoiding a more virulent disease outbreak in August.

[edit on 4/29/2009 by Uphill]

I just found an interesting article on the time it takes to develop a vaccine.

The article says that it takes 6 months.

Time for vaccine

That would mean that the vaccine would be available in late October or early November. I don't know if this means that it will be available for mass distribution by then or if that's just a minimum time frame.

This is an important thread and important discussion.
You are absolutely right ... we'll see more deaths in the fall with a mutation.

In 32 years of life on this planet I have never gotten a flu shot and, curiously, have never gotten the flu either. I see no reason to buck personal history this year by getting a needle jab filled with God only knows what.

reply to post by burdman30ott6


I have to say that I understand and agree with you.

If I were in your shoes, I would most likely not get the jab either.

However, my position is totally opposite. I'm 58 and get a flu shot almost every year. ( Sometimes I miss the window of opportunity for the free shot and don't end up getting one. ) I also, almost never get sick. So, I'm not likely to change my pattern of behavior.

reply to post by FlyersFan


I don't know if there will be a mutation of if it will come back as is, but with far more people getting ill.

The more people that catch the flu, the more people will die.

I don't know if the people dying will be those that are already have compromised health or if it's just those that are unlucky.

Here is the World Health Organization chart on pandemics:


www.who.int...


Although WHO has the current outbreak pegged as Phase 4, some news reports claim that Phase 4 will be changed to Phase 5 during tonight's WHO video press conference. If that happens then my impression is that WHO expects this outbreak to go longer rather than shorter.

[edit on 4/29/2009 by Uphill]

WHO has upped the rating to 5.

Quick, everybody run amok waving your arms and screaming.

Now, resume your life like nothing happened.

I don't worry about the immediate future. We're almost into summer and the flu will fall back. Most people will forget about it until it comes back in winter.

Then, it may take off once again.

reply to post by Wildbob77

The scientist still don't say why there are more deaths in Mexico than other countries so that is a question that I'd like to see answered.

Just taking a stab at this. Many Mexicans don't go to the doctor when they first get sick. They rely on home remedies or natural herbs. Maybe even a curandero. This could be a reason why many have died in Mexico because by the time they get to a doctor it is too late to do anything for them. Then add in the fact that many places in Mexico don't have the necessary medical equipments, staff, and medicine to help these people.

reply to post by jam321


I agree.

It could be that they aren't going to the hospital until they are really really sick.

It could also be that there are far more cases in Mexico. Most of the people get sick and then get well. Only a small percentage of the cases are fatal(just like in the US). But if there are far more cases, you'd expect more deaths.

Star and Flag!!
You bet it will and it'll be stronger and more deadly than ever!! the spring and summer months don't provide the proper environment for the flu and that's why this scares me so bad. I'm afraid when flu season hits, it will become another 1918, but a much higher # of deaths.

I'm not really worried about it. If I see a person coughing and sneezing around me I'll avoid them, but you won't see me getting the shot unless someone in my family gets the swine flu first. The problem is its allergy season right now! EVERYONES SNEEZ ING AND COUGHING!!

The only difference between this and SARS, avian flu, etc. is that its originating in north america and not somewhere in asia, but they were really pushing the scare mongering tactics with those, touting them as the next plague practically, and nothing came from it except a bunch of stress and money for the vaccine-makers.

[edit on 29-4-2009 by mostlyspoons]

I'm sorry to say that the difference with this and other the flu strains is that NO ONE IN THE ENTIRE WORLD seems to be immune to this new strain, and as it passes on to each person, it creates a high possibility of another mutation.

Today's news is stressing that this strain of flu seems to be very mild.

That's great news. However, I still have to admit that I'm concerned for the next flu season. It could be that those people who catch the mild strain will be the lucky ones.

I think that we'll see this again towards the end of the year and I sincerely hope that it continues to be a mild strain and doesn't mutate to a more deadly strain.

I'm going to be buying a book from 2008 on the 1918 pandemic influenza experience in the U.S., whose title is:

A Cruel Wind -- pandemic flu in America 1918-1920


Here is the link to further information on that book, which includes a professional review and 3 highly interesting Amazon user reviews:


www.amazon.com...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241626410&sr=1-1


The shocker in the above title is in the end of the subtitle: 1918 to 1920?? That's a full two years, not just a few months.

The full proportions of the current influenza episode may therefore be two years in the making, not just a few months. As public health experts said in the last two weeks, because influenza virus mutations are coded in RNA rather than DNA, that alone is problematic, since RNA is much more error-prone than DNA.

By the way, the main author of A Cruel Wind is a medical technologist who went back to graduate school and got a number of degrees in history.

[edit on 5/6/2009 by Uphill]