Advanced Tornado Prediction Model

I cannot give my secrets out just yet and it uses over 45 different real weather parameters mixed with my own parameters.
I'm developing an Advanced Tornado Prediction Research Project.

First of all, no it cannot tell you if it will hit your exact house, that is impossible hours out. If you will permit, I would like to do real-time tornado forecasts using this new technology I'm developing right here in this thread. I will not post until i get permission to go ahead and post real-time research samples of the new model of the USA vs tornado risk.

Kevin

you have my permission.

I just have a few questions to satisfy my own curiosity. What's your motivation to post your data on this site? Are your predictions moments, hours, days, weeks, months before the tornado is scheduled to manifest? Lastly, are you an amateur meteorologist or do you have an actual degree in field from an accredited university?

reply to post by Avarus


I work as a meteorologist for private companies. My side work other than Southern California Expert is model development for tornado forecasting.

These are produced the day of the tornado. Not sure if I could produce these 24 hours before but it might be done if worked on more.

I think it'd be very interesting to see your work. I noticed news stations like CNN have been monitoring tornado activity more closely in the past couple years. Trying to get some footage of the awesome destructive power from a chopper.

Also, I live in Ohio, so... any information regarding a tornado blasting through my area would be useful.

I think we just had tornadoes here in Kentucky this afternoon. Did your model predict these accurately? Thanks.

As you know the National Weather Service issues tornado warnings based on radar and visually indicated tornadoes. 1/2 of tornado warnings are radar indicated and cannot be confirmed on the ground.

Kentucky was an example of that. Warnings but no touchdowns so my model looks like it didn't pick up a touchdown chance down there.

The model is an attempt to figure out which areas are prone during the period forecasted for tornado-genesis ( development).

Here was today's forecast and event. I'll try to do this as good as possible. It is not valid anymore as the map time-frame passed. The maps go by risk of touchdown to intensity of tornado. Still working the bugs out but here you go.

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Tornado Risk Analysis Model -
March 8, 2009 - 7:30am Pacific

The model shows mostly very slight risk spots across Illinois and Indiana today. The areas of most concern will lie within and ahead of the frontal zone in Southeastern Illinois and Southwestern Indiana where the yellow spots are.

This image shows the frontal zone plus a lone supercell ahead of the front. It does have yellow dynamics which is good for a weak tornado. So my forecast would be for the yellow part of Indiana with the supercell ahead of the front as well. We'll see if that storm does form ahead of it.

Image here

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Tornado Risk Analysis Model -
March 8, 2009 - 1:20pm Pacific

The new output for this evening shows the activity moving in a East-Northeasterly direction across Illinois. The map below has tornado reports from SPC about where the yellow shades were.

The yellow shades continue into Western Ohio so I have no reason to believe these will die down. Some instability will simmer toward Ohio, however a good thin corridor of instability will remain for possible tornadoes. the slight category isn't all that strong but does support a tornado watch.

Image here

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These outputs were made 4-6 hours before the storm systems hit each forecasted zone. The first map shows areas where NOAA had tornado reports on the ground. The map to tornado reports can be viewed here...

www.spc.noaa.gov...

comparing the outputs to the red dots in IL,IN/OH confirm the model has some merit and has some work to do to try to get into production for future forecasting ...

Here is today. Today is the plains ...

Tornado Risk Analysis Model -
March 9, 2009 - 8:00am Pacific

Scattered areas of very slight and slight today look most probable. The area of convergence will most likely be in Oklahoma with the large yellow area ...




Kevin

Hi hi again !

I guess again we can relate to that meteo thread too?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Blue skies.

Welcome!!!!
Will you please keep posting each day this season? I hope so, I pray so. I was in an EF5 in 1979, and now I am terrified every spring.
I was injured while taking cover in a ditch when I was 12. My grandmother was in her car and was picked up and slammed down, she died. Half of our town was completely destroyed. I live in the Dallas area now. We are expecting some weather this week, not sure about severe though.
I look forward to your forecasts.