Somalia, Mexico and things to come

I was going to post this in the news forum but it is made up of mixed reports over the past few years and recently. This may not be important to some but trust me it is. Somalia has always been a hot bed for radicalism. More reports have come in within the past few months of the increasing presence of Islamic insurgents in and around Somalia. It has been going on for a few years now actually.

Of course everyone knows about the pirates. The rats still pose a threat to any ship going through the lane and it is a vital shipping lane which makes it even more important. I don't know for certain whether or not the rats are linked with the insurgents but if they are that is even worse.

If we still have ships in the area they won't be there forever. For what it’s worth the pathetic government that is in Somalia will collapse and the insurgents get a huge foothold in Africa. Great strategic position and plenty of new Jihadists to come on board. What can we do? Clinton made the mistake of sending Delta and the Rangers against the horde of Somalians and that didn't work. The UN can't do anything either so frankly it isn't looking good. When they do get the country then expect it to rapidly spread.

Also take note the presence of foreign forces in the area. China and India "clashed" recently and last I checked there were U.S and Russian ships within the area.

Mexico is another area of interest. They are starting to collapse due to the drug cartels essentially taking over. The political situation in Mexico and in South America has always been rough. If Mexico comes under the control of the cartels then we have even more problems. Sure the friendlies on the borders are doing a pretty good job considering what they have to work with but they can only do so much. The presence of cartels is growing in the South and if it continues to do so the governments won't be able to cope. Mexico is VITAL to both the U.S and the cartels in my opinion. You may be asking why? It's a big straight line to the U.S border.

Even with the assets we have on the border and various walls that won't stop someone who is determined enough. What will stop them from just crossing through a border checkpoint? They could have guys up in the U.S with citizenship and they can easily cross the border to smuggle drugs in. And drugs aren't the only problem. Once the cartels get enough power they can basically shoot across the border at us. Lethal attacks on the Mexican police and civilians have become more frequent. The civis don't want to be caught in the crossfire or get blown up so that means more immigrants coming to the U.S

These are just two examples of countries in a bad shape. Don't forget about the other South American and African countries. South Africa is already in an bad position and the countries like Darfur, Central African Republic and Chad are just waiting for full blown insurgency.

This stuff was just off the top of my head so there might be some inaccuracies. I could probably work for Stratfor though

Thanks for your thoughts on these basket case governments. I agree pretty much with your analysis.

It's not helpful to look at what has happened in the past, these days. The world has become a different place in less than a year.

For financial and image reasons the US no longer wants to be the World policeman. The blowback has really bitten them in the ass, and the public will not support excuses for involvement as they did before.

We may be entering an era where everyone just looks on as one country after another implodes economically, politically, socially. We have enough problems just holding our own together now.

Mexico is a big concern as it borders on the US. I can't see the drug cartels, even if they outright take control of the government infrastructure, wanting an open conflict with the US admin. Nothing for them to gain by it.

Tens of millions of customers and the US by and large letting them play their games is what has sustained them.

With the conservative abhorrence of drug largely in abeyance with the Obama administration, I think the rules will change. The War on Drugs will be over. The drugs won hands down.

Practical realities will be implemented. Less spent on fighting trafficking and production. One can only put out small fires and it costs so much in the losing battle.

There might even be some sort of tacit deal made by the cash strapped US to directly, instead of through laundering, sort of 'tax' the billions in drug sales, in some co-operative arrangement with the sources.

There are precedents to this with the CIA and the opium trade.

Many factors will come into play, like the Islamic new found interest in Mexico. But I see a US with so many internal economic concern, cutting a deal where a drug cartel puppet administration in Mexico is allowed to ply their trade with silent US co-operation.

I think most realize that there will be hundreds of billions spent in the US on drugs, no matter what measures are taken. So a self-serving practical solution for both sides is the practical solution.

Say Yes to Drugs.


Mike F

The US won't win against Somalia by launching a ground invasion, they are united> Also a lot of somalians hate america and jews (especially in the UK)