Bayes Theorem Applicable to Nuclear War?

Do you think the Bayes Theory is applicable when considering the possibilities of nuclear war? I was reading some info on the following web page...

www.cdi.org...

...about how this theory is used by the government in determining the "probability" of things. According to this info, they use this formula for determining the "accuracy" of intelligence, risks, and so forth.

I think it is definitely the wrong way to go about determining the "value" of information, considering that our nations CIA had a major implication not too recently regarding their "accuracy" of obtained intelligence.


Mr. M

Great find

I had no idea that a math formula was used to determine accuracy. Thinking about it though, I'm not suprised.

I think it is definitely the wrong way to go about determining the "value" of information, considering that our nations CIA had a major implication not too recently regarding their "accuracy" of obtained intelligence.

I must agree with you. How can you use a bunch of numbers to go to nuclear war - especially in a preemptive strike. Obviously, I understand it would take extenuating circumstances for this to happen, but still, I think it the wrong way to go.

My feelings exactly. I think that our government utilizes many valuable resources to complete the intelligence collection process and determine the accuracy of the information that they have compiled. However, I do not see how this formula may be used accurately in itself to calculate potential risks, accuracy of intel, probability of events, and so on. I believe that this is a major flaw in our system, and that actions should be taken to discontinue the use of methods such as this in the future.


Mr. M

this kind of reminds me of las vegas mixed with my middle/highschool science classes. It's like they are laying odds on intel using some abstract formula that is supposed to give an error percentage. They are using diriving numbers from non numbers, and using those numbers find another number - and this is supposed to influence the lone world powers military and foriegn policy......scary thought.

1 question - I read that page about an hour ago and I forget - Is this supposed to be the "final say" or is it rather used to give an idea of intel accuracy?

No, it is not the final say, I believe. I think it is used as some sort of a pre-conclusive submission to the advisors.

Basically, from what I gather, this "info" is relayed through the appropriate channels along with other intel that has been obtained, and acts as an "attachment".

I think... Who knows?


Mr. M