What will economic failure look like?

Alright group, I have a topic to bring to your collective intelligence. IF we go into an economic failure here in California and in the U.S. for that matter, what will it actually look like? How will it affect the average working person’s day to day living? I’ve been trying to do some comparisons to the great depression but find that society was much different back then. Primarily because less people were dependant on government for their daily survival and more people still had basic survival skills (raising crops, hunting fishing for food etc). Also, at what point do we see the country’s power and gas grids being affected?

reply to post by PhoenixDemon


Phoenix...

The answer to your question is quite simple. Walk to your window and look out; that is what it looks like. Turn on your radio or your television; that is what it looks like and sounds like. Each week will be progressively worse than the previous until this mess is sorted out. Where the bottom lies is anyone's guess.

You are absolutely correct about "society was much different back then".

It will be an entirely different ball game.

To really get us in the same situation, we need about 25% or so unemployment which was about what it was during the great depression. Currently, unemployment is only about 8%.

I think it will be a every man for himself type situation. God has been removed from the picture for the most part in today's society.

ok so i don't have magic ball but...

think of america as a city banker, say a Patric, Bernard or an Adam...

They've all been living their life going to posh restaurants and health spas and are used to spending large sums of money, this has been fine because they've been getting money hand over foot and making vast profits however when the belt tightens they#ll have to cut spending, it will hurt if they can't go to the nice restaurant or buy the newest gadgets but the real problem comes when they can't afford to invest money to make money because then the problem compounds and their life collapses...

now what really happens depends on the person involved....


Patrick (bateman) is in the high flier club and a mover and shaker - it's his life, body and soul - his watch, suit, choice of restaurant and friends provide his worlth, not just in his own mind but practically he NEEDS to be a big player to get invited to the correct places and get all the right tips and deals. When it starts to collapse and he looses the image of control it starts to collapse rapidly, friends start to avoid him and deals pass him by and soon the collapse is total. Of course living his life like this charade of eliteness has meant he's hidden but nurtured his psychotic side and when he starts to loose his grip he #really# looses his grip,

Bernard (Maddoff) has been a well respected place for safe money and good returns but then when the rug is pulled it turns out that it was all a lie, investors bay like dogs at the door and he's unveiled as a criminal, his name goes down in history as a terrible terrible person and his life as a super economic power is over.

Adam (smith) has invested his money in complex but sound business ventures which are designed to supply at a reasonable cost items which are needed by people. Because of everyone else being an idiot the demand for some of his items will collapse and some of his business ventures will have to reorganize or collapse, however people will always need some things so as long as he hasn't brought overly opulent ventures but has also got some pin makers and bread stores in his portfolio he should be able to weather the storm.

Of course the effect of the collapse on the person depends on their character and position -are you a paatrick a bernard or an adam?

Looking back the companies that survived and even thrived during the Great Depression was Proctor & Gamble, movie and entertainment (including radio, but newspapers sagged), government employment (FBI, postmen, police), automotive.

Basically it was those that made needed goods that did well. Kroger and later IGA became large grocery chains and worked much like Walmart does today by using the collaborative of the chain to provide lower cost groceries.

P&G did very well with consumables of soap, toothpaste, etc. Items that were always in demand and most importantly had to be replaced over time.

Movies, Radio and entertainment media did well because it provided needed distraction as well as a good bang for the buck in the case of movies. At the time a theater charged a single admission and a patron could remain inside all day. So movies then were much like TV today and theaters had the much desired air conditioning that most homes lacked at the time.

As criminals took advantage of the situation, government responded with more law enforcement. Given that today the FBI and CIA are having massive hirings in all positions should indicate that the US government is expecting things to become a bit worse in the future and are trying to stay ahead of the curve. Some local police are hiring but others are having to cut officers due to budget constraints. I would expect hirings to depend on local crime rate increases and lowered standards, perhaps with no requirement to attend a full academy but be boot camp in nature.

The scary thing about today is 1/5 of all imports are by and for Walmart. If California does indeed fall, the handling of those imports through the regulated docks and ports is going to become a logistics nightmare for the rest of the countries supply chain. Since most of those goods are no longer made in the US anymore. We don't even domestically make Levi jeans here anymore.

The other scary thing is that the majority of employers today are less likely to take a profit cut for the benefit of all than the magnates of the early 20th century did. We can see this in the number of businesses that are just outright shutting their doors and the banks that are refusing to negotiate solutions on debt and lending.

Of course should we hit that magic 25% number (some say we already have if you include under-employment figures of those that took a significantly lower paying job), then there will quite the day of reckoning against businesses and banks that have contributed to this situation out of boldfaced greed.