Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted

From John Mauldin on the Big Picture

First, I have to address some more government data that can be misleading. We were told Thursday that initial unemployment claims were “only” 524,000. The talking heads immediately said that was proof the economy is simply bad, not falling off a cliff. Again, like last week, that seasonally adjusted number masks the real number, which was 952,151. That is not a typo. There were almost 1 million newly unemployed last week! That is up over 400,000 from the same week in 2008, while the seasonally adjusted number was up only 200,000. Last week the real number was 726,000, so this is a material rise of over 225,000, yet the
seasonally adjusted number suggests a rise of only 57,000 from last week.

The continuing claims data leaped over 500,000 to (again, not a typo!) 5,832,746. The length of time people are staying unemployed is also rising rapidly. We are up almost 1.5 million new continuing claims in just the last five weeks. That is a stunning rise of over 30% in unemployment claims in just over a month. The data is truly ugly, but it is what it is.

This is really bad! less jobs means less taxes means more deficit means ...

How long can this continue before we completely implode?

Layoff Daily shows on a day to day basis the news reports of layoffs and lost jobs.

But 1.5 million new UE claims in 5 weeks?

How can anyone get us out of this mess?

reply to post by redhatty
Ahhh yes the good old Bush Administration Policies finally taking effect.

Thank you George W. Bush Jr.

and thank you for all you folks out there that were dumb enough to vote for him.

reply to post by ofhumandescent


Ahhh yes the good old Democratic Congress Policies finally taking effect.

Thank you Nancy Pelosi.

and thank you for all you folks out there that were dumb enough to vote for Ms. Pelosi and all of her liberal, socialist friends.

That is a stunning increase.

Last week the actual initial claims were at 726,420 which was "seasonally adjusted" to a better-than-target 467k.

That's an additional quarter of million people making an initial claim for unemployment benefits in a single week. Half a million added in continuing claims. Jesus.

I have no words.....!

I didn't post this to be a mudslinging blame game.

I posted it to show people that as we go further and further into national debt, the tax base is shrinking and shrinking.

Whatever Policies Congress has put forth, whether Rep or Dem, we are the ones who have to live through the hell.

I have a good job right now, but I'm wondering nervously when my company is going to be the next to lay people off and if I will get cut.

The idea of HOPING there are still unemployment benefits available and that food stamps are still an option when that day comes is not a pleasant one.

Whether we like the person who is President or not (and I haven't since JFK for what it's worth) matters little.

I do have to admit though, Obama is right in that we need to start helping one another, knowing our neighbors, and planning ahead. Harder times are coming.

By the by, in case anyone doubts Maudlin's numbers:

Department of Labor
(note: this is a static link and the data will be updated each week. Archives will eventually be posted on this page)

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 952,151 in the week ending Jan. 10, an increase of 220,205 from the previous week. There were 547,506 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

In addition, last week's 726,420 number was revised upwards to 731,946.

Also of note, same source:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Dec. 27 were in Oregon (7.4 percent), Michigan (6.6), Idaho (6.3), Wisconsin (6.0), South Carolina (5.4), Arkansas (5.3), Nevada (5.2), Pennsylvania (5.2), Indiana (5.1), and Montana (5.1).

I was actually thinking the number had to be higher, I can ask about 100 people I know and at least 40 are unemployed as of right now. Just because Joe does odd jobs around town, he is still considered unemployed.

reply to post by jhill76


This is just people applying for and actually receiving unemployment benefits. People whose benefits have run out aren't counted.

Numerous states are experiencing systems so overloaded that the newly jobless are unable to get through on the phone or online to file. None of those people are included in the numbers.

Self employed folks, whether they own a business, do independent contract work, or just do odd handyman jobs, aren't eligible and therefore aren't counted.

People who don't make a certain amount of money or who didn't work at an employer for long enough aren't eligible. The length of time and required minimum earnings vary by state.
As an example, let's say you worked for Company A for 5 years. You were offered a job at Company B which you decided to accept, so you resigned your position at Company A at the end of May 2008. Six months after you start with Company B, it goes out of business and you're out of a job.
You file for unemployment in December. Because of the way unemployment is calculated, they look at what you earned with Company B during the four quarters that ended before the last quarter. December falls within the 4th quarter, so 4Q earnings aren't counted, nor are 3Q. 3Q2007, 4Q2007, 1Q2008, and 2Q2008 are what are used to calculate the unemployment amount. You're not eligible to receive unemployment because you didn't work there long enough based on the calculating period! Any income from Company A isn't counted.

Over 3.6 million people have lost their jobs since the recession "officially" started, so it's not surprising that you know of so many.

Alls I have to say is this...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Ive been saying this forever. Not only does the government give false employment numbers but they do GDP, Inflation, and other numbers. They are crooks. If you walk out and pull 10 people 2 of them will say they dont have a job and 1 to 2 will say they are underemployed. If I had to take a guess I would say unemployment is 15 to 20% and underemployment is another 10 to 15%. I love how all of last year as gas and food skyrocketing the government told us there was no inflation....LOL! Freaking tools.

Originally posted by redhatty
I didn't post this to be a mudslinging blame game.

I posted it to show people that as we go further and further into national debt, the tax base is shrinking and shrinking.

I totally agree with you. I think it is becoming obvious to even the most partisan folks that pretty much everyone in Congress is only interested in their own power and profit. Arguing over who did what to whom is missing the point. We are in deep trouble and I don’t see it getting better for a long time.

Every job that is lost means another person is going to be cutting back on their spending to try to survive. That in turn leads to more business closures because people aren’t spending money on “optional” things like going out to eat, buying their gourmet morning coffee or buying a new appliance or automobile. More business closures lead to more layoffs and the cycle continues as a downward spiral.

This actual loss of jobs and spending power by consumers is not even the whole problem. There is also a huge loss of confidence among consumers. Even people with stable jobs and money in the bank are cutting back “in case things get worse.” That action in itself insures that things will get worse.

The gov't are the biggest crooks on the planet. They are sneaky and coniving. We are heading for a huge fall and Obama won't be able to save us. Since they want to spend so much on this over hyped inauguration...they need to stop taking income tax out of my check

yup employment number much worse like Mauldin says ....and Mauldin is NOT the alarmist type at all.

...........unsustainable credit bubble collapsing on itself and ........the domino's are falling in favor of the creditors........on way to maintain a structured socio-economic system within those paramaters is a feudal system third world style ......elite class......and the poor working class NWO style. (high unemployment way of life) ......God i hope i am wrong.



[edit on 18-1-2009 by cpdaman]