The Russians Gas Trap..1/13/09

I have been paying close attention to thing's going on around teh world. I have seen these "Efforts" of the PTB's turning into much more than just wasted time. there has been an ongoing "Silent" battle since the 1990's between Russia and the Ukraine. After the "Orange revolution" of 2004, thing's have been escalating to a very serious crescendo of deliberate acts and rather distasteful third party blaming, I suppose we don't have to be concerned of the "Russian" connection,"Right?" "Wrong!" it is an attempt to have some of teh most powerful and needed allies of that part of teh world to seal new deals, such as Germany and Russia to thwart the ideals of the EU and the Ukrainian defenses using these tactics to cause chaos with in their oceanic border's.
Russia would rather wage all out "War" on the Ukrainians than let them be parliament into the NATO community, which has been looked at from both Ukraine and EU. This would mean a very troublesome time for both of these countries, but Germany doesn't want teh waves to come crashing in on their country over a dispute of fuels. So, the Germans have thought up a way to have the disagreement threat an all out battle, but the way the German's are doing it allows them to come back into the big scene as a "Revived" negotiations party to a world power. Even though "Mother Russia" has lost most of her clout with the rest of teh world, she is still a very heavily armored and very tough Gal, that we seen with the acts against Georgia, and Russia is not a temperamental country by no means, if the opportunity arrives, Russia's armed forces will not hesitate to act as they have done in the past, "Push our people, You get pushed back harder" scenario.
The above mentioned countries are no the only player's in the out come of this game, there are a "Slew" of different smaller and nuclear armed countries that, I believe, would retaliate to the fullest if the Russian bear decides to go an a "Feeding Frenzy" once again. The countries involved are as follows:
All of those deliveries now have been suspended, resulting in cutoffs of various degrees to France, Turkey, Poland, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Austria, the Czech Republic, Greece, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Serbia and Bulgaria — in rough order of increasing severity.
I can't say for sure if this the invite from hell, but with the war in Gaza, the war in Iraq, and affiliations with the Israeli's with no action taking place,and with our notable involvement with Poland to have our "Anti-Missile" launchers posed for an all out Nuclear war from the Russian's, the thoughts are reeling through my mind.
I don't want this to be viewed as a "Doom and Gloom" kind of thread, it was just to give all the ATSer's here a heads up for the events in our world, and by the way , there was a gentleman named "Mr. Webster G. Tarpley" who is a "terrorist and global war machine analyst" who has predicted these events way a head of their times, it is a scary situation "YES" but with the world as it s today, "Must we go as far as destroying ourselves to gain monetary and easily shared material items of discussion and out right diplomacy?" I just don't know if that is going too be possible....

Ukraine hems in the south of European Russia so thoroughly that any hostile power controlling Kiev could easily threaten a variety of core Russian interests, including Moscow itself. Ukraine also pushes far enough east that a hostile Kiev would sever most existing infrastructure connections to the Caucasus. Simply put, a Ukraine outside the Russian sphere of influence transforms Russia into a purely defensive power, one with little hope of resisting pressure from anywhere. But a Russified Ukraine makes it possible for Russia to project power outward, and to become a major regional — and potentially global — player.

These are Mr. Webster G. Tarpley's video "Tell All" of what to watch for in the future, which is now, in reference to this video. Watch them in the order they were put, 1 of 2 to be viewed,
i3.ytimg.com...

i2.ytimg.com...

This is the news source where the story goes in further explanation of this event and it's over all impact of their region, not to mention the player's involved.

www.stratfor.com...

Not throwing stones in a 'Glass House' intentionally, just very concerned as the rest of teh world is watching Israel give Gavan's an ethnic cleansing.
Thing's could get much worse, and it will , unfortunately, drag our country to the forefront as allies with most of these mentioned territories.

This gas situation is not new, it has happened before (if my memory is working as it should, it was in the 2006/2007 winter).

What I think is one of the problems is the fact that Ukraine gained a stronger position as part of the Soviet Union but they tried to keep that position after the end of the Soviet Union.

Military groups like NATO, in my view, are not as useful as they were in the 1960s and 70s, the economic power is much more important today, so a country that can show economic strength in any way (either because of its purchase power of because of its power as a supplier, like Russia) has more to gain than a country like Ukraine, and that is why Russia is building new pipelines that bypass Ukraine.

Also, eastern Europe should have thought before about how dependent they are from external gas supplies (here in Portugal we get our gas from north Africa) and they should have diversified their suppliers, but there are geographic limits that are hard to ignore.

But, being an optimist, I thing everything will get back on track (as before) and the only that will loose in the future is Ukraine, that will loose its highly discounted gas prices after all these "gas wars".

Reply ot : ArMap (DAMN REPLY TO: button!!!)

I hope or wish your assessment is correct, but for the most part, there is another storm on the horizon for peace and posterity for teh people of that region.
I had initially poste the thread to see if some one here was from that general vicinity. (Low and behold!) And I do appreciate the input of the indigenous peoples of the area to give first hand examples, but Germany and Russia are quite the volatile cocktail for bed partner's, especially for teh western world, not to mention agreed on hatreds for the people of their part of the world.
Brzezinski hates Russia, and has had his hand in the endeavours of wanting Russia to get into an all out war with either China or Sudan, the thing's that were told of in the earlier date of the "Tarpley Interview" it seems to be unfolding, slowly, but unfolding as he had predicted, and after Obama got the Presidency vote.
Just kind of prophetic and strange to be here happening as of that particular inauguration of the Obama Admin.
"Don't you think?"

It is true that the relations between Ukraine and Russia have been shaky ever since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. What many people don't realize is that the gas dispute between the two countries actually originated in the 90's - long before the Orange Revolution. However now it has become more pronounced and more troublesome.

Having spend much of my life in both countries, and having family and homes in both countries, I have witnessed the deterioration of relations first hand for the last decade. The issues are difficult to understand for non-Russians and non-Ukrainians, and it appears that both sides must come to terms with each other, or face consequences which no one truly wants to behold.


The root of the problem here is not gas, or EU, or even NATO membership. Look for example at the Baltics or Poland - Russia doesn't much care about what those countries are doing. Even Georgia's, Azerbaijan's, and Kazakhstan's action don't both Russia as much as those of Ukraine. How is Ukraine different? For one thing the country is culturally and historically very close to Russia - the two have never been enemies and were allies throughout histore. Second, a large percentage of Ukraine's population considers themselves to be Russian. More people living in Ukraine know the Russian language than Ukrainian language. Since the fall of USSR Ukraine has pretty much splintered in half - those who are pro-Russia (about 50%), and those that are anti-Russia (about 50%).

And what has occured since the Orange revolution (a coup in disguise) is these two halfs started dangerously drifting away from each other. The ruling anti-Russian faction completely ignores and even antagonizes the pro-Russian population. This is what troubles Russia the most. This pro-Russian population of Ukraine are core Ukrainians too, and feel entitled to voice their interests.

My fear is that the way it is going now, the country will eventually be splintered in two. This has happened before in Eastern Europe, and even without violance - think Czech Republic and Slovakia. However there is no predicting what will happen in Ukraine. Yuschenko and his "Orange" administration are only exacerbating the problem by driving a wedge between the two sides, and between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine simply must not join NATO at its current state - it is too dangerous, and half of Ukrainians will not stand for it. It may be the final spark in igniting civil tensions.

Originally posted by Allred5923
Russia would rather wage all out "War" on the Ukrainians than let them be parliament into the NATO community, which has been looked at from both Ukraine and EU.

Well NATO and EU are not one and the same. In fact Russia does not oppose the notion of Ukraine joining EU. NATO however is a problem, and not just because of Russia - many Ukrainians oppose it as well. About 65% of Ukrainian public is against joining NATO. About 40% are fiercely against it. Major political opposition to Yuschenko (Timoshenko, Yanukovich) also harshly opposes any NATO membership - and will likely attempt to remove him from power if he decides to proceed with this idea.

Originally posted by Allred5923
Even though "Mother Russia" has lost most of her clout with the rest of teh world, she is still a very heavily armored and very tough Gal, that we seen with the acts against Georgia

Georgia War has been discussed all over this thread, and throughout the EU. There is now more or less an agreement that Georgia innitiated the hostilities. Russia did not act overly hostile during the war, and has not occupied Georgia after the conflict (although it could easily have done so). All it did was restore the status quo in the breakaway republics, and prevent ethnic cleansing.

There is no indication that Russia is intent in starting or taking part in any conflicts with any of its neighbors. In fact it was rather reluctant to intervene in Georgia at first, and warned Georgia for months not to attack the breakaway republics or peacekeepers. Russia intervened primarily because the innitial Georgian attack resulted in 10 Russian sanctioned peacekeepers being killed.

Originally posted by Allred5923
if the opportunity arrives, Russia's armed forces will not hesitate to act as they have done in the past,

Any theories about a war between Ukraine and Russia are nonesense. The two will never wage an all out war on each other. It is difficult for outsiders to comprehend - but it is about as realistic as US waging war against Canada or UK.

Originally posted by Allred5923
All of those deliveries now have been suspended, resulting in cutoffs of various degrees to France, Turkey, Poland, Germany....

EU observers and diplomats have now affirmed that Ukraine is to blame for the stopage of gas transit. These countries will not have their relations with Russia ruined because of this.

Originally posted by Allred5923
Not throwing stones in a 'Glass House' intentionally, just very concerned as the rest of teh world is watching Israel give Gavan's an ethnic cleansing.
Thing's could get much worse, and it will , unfortunately, drag our country to the forefront as allies with most of these mentioned territories.

There is no need to worry about a war between Russia and Ukraine. It will not happen. There is reason however to worry about internal disturbance within Ukraine - as I said earlier the country is pretty much split into two. US and NATO however certainly do no belong there - this is not their issue and none of their business.

The most likely scenerio is that there will not be a conflict of any kind. Yuschenko is already on the way out (less than 7% of the population support him currently), and probably any plans for Ukraine to join NATO will be scrapped. He may even be impeached by the current parliament of Ukraine - which is already starting innitial impeachment proceedings. His replacement will likely be Timoshenko - who is above all a business woman. She is interested in money above all else - and as such she will seek to improve Ukraine's relations with Russia while maintaining good ties with US and the West. However she will scrap NATO plans almost certainly.

So the situation in Ukraine is likely to improve soon - as long as Yuschenko is removed in a timely manner. US will not be drawn into this because the risk is too high, and it has other more important priorities.

Originally posted by ArMaP
This gas situation is not new, it has happened before (if my memory is working as it should, it was in the 2006/2007 winter).

The entire gas dispute revolves around the supply contract between Ukraine and Russia. The root of the dispute dates back to mid 90's. That is when the innitial agreement was made and the contract was signed. This contract expired in the end of 2006 - so the new dispute arouse. In early 2007 a new short-term contract was signed. And as you can guess - this contract expired at the end of 2008.

What would really help solve the problem is a long-term contract. But this is not happening as there are now too many differences about the terms. Mostly likely outcome of the currect dispute is the another short-term contract. By the time that expires, Nord Stream would be near completion and South Stream would be underway - rendering transport through Ukraine largely uneeded. So hopefully this is the last time we see such severe consequences for European gas clients.

Originally posted by ArMaP
What I think is one of the problems is the fact that Ukraine gained a stronger position as part of the Soviet Union but they tried to keep that position after the end of the Soviet Union.

An even more serious problem is lack of responsibility of Ukraine's government, and rampant corruption. There is a notion in Ukrainian politics that politicians can pretty much get away with anything by shifting blame to others - and most often that is what happens.

Originally posted by ArMaP
Also, eastern Europe should have thought before about how dependent they are from external gas supplies

Exactly. If countries like Ukraine want to cut ties with Russia and seek alliances with factions hostile to Russia - they are free to do just that. However Ukraine still feels entitled to receive subsidies and help from Russia in the form of cheap gas. Today Russians pay more for Russian gas than Ukrainians do. Where is the fairness in that? There is no free giveaways anymore - and Ukraine must come to terms with that. If you can't afford to be independent - than maybe you shouldn't be.

Originally posted by ArMaP
But, being an optimist, I thing everything will get back on track

Oh it will. Supplies to Europe should resume very soon now that EU observers are in place to monitor the pipeline in Ukraine. We have probably already seen the peak of the dispute, and now a resolution is being drafted.

Originally posted by ArMaP
(as before) and the only that will loose in the future is Ukraine, that will loose its highly discounted gas prices after all these "gas wars".

Chances are that Ukraine will largely get away with stolen gas and unpaid bills for now, just like in 2007. Most like its gas prices won't increase by much either. However as soon as Nord Stream is completed, Ukraine will face the music.

Maloy, I thank you for your incredibly insightful and educational replies, they and you are worthy of communications and the denial of ignorance!!

I suppose with the events unfolding, and since this thread has been created, it has gone back and forth for teh actual event of these fuel reserves to be turned back on. Yesterday, Jan. 13th, there were complications with the valves or something to that order:

"Is the Ukrainian government filling some kind of reserve or redirecting flows to a different place as an act of deceit to the Russian agreement of turning the lines back on?"

"Is there another possible coup being put on the drawing boards for and against teh Russian Gov. to allow the Ukrainians to show they are not Russia's pawns of such action and events?"

"Is it possible that all these events, though they have happened over a period of time, are an attempt by "Higher powers in the shadows" to create a situation that would eventually raise tensions to start an all out war with the backing of teh EU?"

I know that probably sounds a bit "Cloak and Dagger" but with your admittance of their being very corrupt government running Ukrainians already, it may lie in the secretive section of such an incorrect thinking leader or parliaments.

Once again, thank you for your welcomed reply.