Very Few Are Prepared

reply to post by VelmaLu


Velma, you made some very, very good points. After some disaster that leads to anarchy, those who will best cope and survive will be those who are able to lay low and let the more unprepared - mentally and physically - go berserk.

Scavengers and predators will actually be of the same mind. From desperation, scavengers and predators will be taking from those who have, and cannot defend. Eventually, groups of predators will even be fighting other groups of predators. Look at our inner cities even now. Groups based on mutual interests and enabled by force.

Fortunately, they too, will eventually weaken overall, but there will be some vicious groups of predators who will survive. That's why folks group together who have common interests, for mutual defense.

All through history, there have been roving bands, increasingly larger as centuries passed, that lived by conquest. As late as the nineteenth century in the US, the Comanche fought the Arapaho, who fought the Blackfoot, who fought other tribes, on and on.

The real trick is going to be in the early stages remaining either undetected, or if detected, successfully defensive. Nature and predators will take care of the rest.

reply to post by dooper


It's sad that it's as perdictable as that, but you are right... Predators will savagely weild their power against the weak and each other.

Your liking them to inner city gangs is exactly correct, as a gang is a protective group for individuals. It should be easy to remain unseen by this type of element unless you have a mansion on a hill. However, their strenth will peter out as "gang" wars kill members. Unlike now, there will be fewer civilians to pool from and bolster their rescources.

Meanwhile, we will be waiting. Content and surviving. We will have the ability and desire to outlive their barbarity.

Originally posted by fred3110
reply to post by Northern Raider

 

10 years is quite a long time, would it really be practical to start setting up a community after 10 years or would it be more sensible to start, say 6 months to a year after the initial sitX?

I think communities would develop automatically after the event as people would naturally join together in such times, the community itself would depend greatly on who was part of it.

I think Geography, Local culture and other issues will dictate when a nucleus of people start to rebuild, it could be six months in say rural Northumberland where there is not much friction or people to begin with, but ten years in say Los Angeles with its gangs, various ethnic groups, gun obssession, etc etc. All we can do is lie low and wait and watch carefully, each area will become free from scavengers, disease, gangs, sheeple and migrants in its own time.

reply to post by Northern Raider


Bravo! An excelent point! Smaller towns will indeed already share that bond!

reply to post by Morningglory


When I put in my wood stove, I installed an intake vent from the outside.

One of the problems with wood stoves is that they can take the O2 from inside of the house and use it for combustion which in an airtight house can create a disaster.

Originally posted by dooper
reply to post by VelmaLu

 

Fortunately, they too, will eventually weaken overall, but there will be some vicious groups of predators who will survive. That's why folks group together who have common interests, for mutual defense.

All through history, there have been roving bands, increasingly larger as centuries passed, that lived by conquest. As late as the nineteenth century in the US, the Comanche fought the Arapaho, who fought the Blackfoot, who fought other tribes, on and on.

The real trick is going to be in the early stages remaining either undetected, or if detected, successfully defensive. Nature and predators will take care of the rest.

I suspect if there is a complete and total collapse early on, and yet there are military, law enforcement or even fire and rescue still attempting to operate, the thugs of society will be mowed down immediately. It is too difficult to deal with them otherwise.

I can imagine that there will not be a lot of incentive to transport "prisoners" to jail, especially when it becomes apparent that a certain faction of society is making it dangerous for everyone. Besides, if you can't arrest them, what are you going to with them? I believe a new "law" will be established. . . which will be anyone robbing, raping or stealing will be shot on sight. I think criminals will be openly executed with the full support of the citizenry. With so many people already dead, the survivors will likely become desensitized to death.

I can see the military having no problem going through a neighborhood and removing the undesirable elements. If things got bad enough, I can envision groups of individuals in isolated pockets forming security patrols and killing looters or criminals on sight.

I think we learned a lot from Hurricane Katrina, but mostly, not to tolerate people preying on rescue workers, roving bands of thugs raping women, or being disarmed. It's like hijacking a plane. After 9/11, the passengers would rise up and give their life to stop a hijacking in America. There's no way anyone would successfully fly an airplane into a building again. It isn't going to happen.

I think if Hurricane Katrina hit today, you'd see a much different scenario. You'd still have the idiots who don't prepare and expect the government to rescue them, but I think you'd see many others willing to use excessive force to protect themselves.

I don't think that we are going to see a single day where everyone knows that we've come to some disaster.

Instead, I think that the gradual downturn will continue. People will lose their jobs, lose their homes on a continuing basis.

There's an old quote "It's a recession when your neighbor looses his home, It's a depression when you lose your home"

So, what I'm getting at is I don't think that we will have a short period of anarchy followed by a calm time. I think that more and more people will be down and out.

You'll hear more stories about people coming to live with friends or relatives who are still employed. More and more people will be growing their own food and raising animals.

I think that we're going to go down for a while and it will take some careful thought and action to get the economy going again. I don't think that there will be any kind of boom in the near future.

Thanks for the good reading.

Bob

reply to post by Northern Raider


Definitely valid points, I think the safest bet for me would be to bug out, theres various communities who dont get along and I know all hell would break loose if the system broke down, even now they have small skirmishes, mostly with knives and bats but the odd gun isn't unheard of. I dont even know when it would be safe to return but it I'd imagine it would be years.

Velma, thanks for expanding on your initial post you make some excellent points and I completley agree with you.

I remember going with my parents during the cuban missle crisis and looking at homes with fall out shelters, and thru the carter and reagan years I started slowly gathering together different things, making sure there was always a well stocked larder, the generator was in good shape, my "first aid" kit was current and everything in date, extra ammo, 2 baygen radios, etc.

the main thing to have in case the SHTF is a good idea of what did, and how to deal with whatever situation it is; I firmly believe in encouraging others to prepare; but I also limit the number of people that know of my preps, and few know of my bugout plan or where my safe havens are;

I am a hunter and a fisherman, I can grow just about any crop necessary and have the needed seed stock, can use 3 gallon storage bags and a handful of rubber bands to to supplement my water supply in foliated areas or a sheet of plastic wrap and a cup for more arid places;

being able to not let the scavengers and predators be aware of what you have is important, just as having the mindset to defend what is yours by whatever means necessary.

Here in the good ol u.s. of a., on any given day there is a 3 day supply of food on the shelves; stop the trucks and then you have bare shelves and a lot of people getting hungry and determined to take what they need.

I hope we avoid the apocyalyptic scenerios we are prepared for, but I will also defend my family with all force necessary.

just my 2 cents



seeker

reply to post by Wildbob77



I agree Bob.....


I think it is good for people in general to start learning how to grow their own food again etc, and start being more independant of the "system."

I also think it will be more of a slow proccess in general, YET may in some areas be worse than others and feel like the rug was pulled out from under their feet.

I think if the sytem breaks down, let it....let it go......we don't need it anymore, we should be able to take care of ourselves again like our great grandparents etc.

I have been preparing myself since the primaries. I listened to what Ron Paul said and I knew he was right. When I looked into the numbers its pretty apparent that We are headed for a major crash. I have since then stored up probably 30 buckets full of dried goods. A SKS, M1A, & AR15 with 1000 rounds each. I have also bought 3 water barrels for water storage which should last my family 3 months if We conserve and use very limited ammounts of water. I will be seriously thinking about buying a berky but it might be better just to buy one solar panel to operate my fathers well pump. I do intend to bug out to the woods when this crap goes down and I won't mind abadoning all that I have to the roving mobs. I will also become a stinking farmer over night and start planting my own food so hopefully I will make it. The only thing that sucks is I'll be feeding a butt load of people that have not prepared so the food might not last as long. So who knows I might just stay in the city and board up all my windows and shoot anyone that tries to break in .... Choices choices so many choices but I won't be unprepared because I have no compunctions or regrets with wiping my ass with my own hands ..... Hello my name is "&^&^%" how are you ....?

Originally posted by the seeker_713g
Here in the good ol u.s. of a., on any given day there is a 3 day supply of food on the shelves; stop the trucks and then you have bare shelves and a lot of people getting hungry and determined to take what they need.

I've looked into the food supply. There's something even more troubling than that. Yes, there is a three or four day supply of food -- assuming people aren't hoarding or stockpiling. During a hurricane, most of the grocery stores get wiped out in hours.

What is worse is that there is a two week supply chain. That means any interruption in food distribution will take two weeks before it hits your store. So if your local food warehouses don't get rice today, you won't know it until Christmas.

Personally, I think it's time to start gardening and developing barter contacts locally. I've already done so. I don't care if I have passion fruit or mangoes, but I do care that I have eggs, milk and butter.

Originally posted by VelmaLu


I've looked into the food supply. There's something even more troubling than that. Yes, there is a three or four day supply of food -- assuming people aren't hoarding or stockpiling. During a hurricane, most of the grocery stores get wiped out in hours.

What is worse is that there is a two week supply chain. That means any interruption in food distribution will take two weeks before it hits your store. So if your local food warehouses don't get rice today, you won't know it until Christmas.

Personally, I think it's time to start gardening and developing barter contacts locally. I've already done so. I don't care if I have passion fruit or mangoes, but I do care that I have eggs, milk and butter.

The supply chain is just from the bulk storage; let's look at it this way;
the wheels fall off and as of jan. 1 you are reliant on what you have; there are very few areas of the country that you can plant in before late march or april; then it's 45-60 days before any of them start bearing; staple crops take longer; realistically it will be july before you have a lot coming in.

group communal effort will be necessary, and without tractors, is labor intensive. plowing with a mule or team is a lost art to most.


seeker

I'm not so sure that is the answer, either.

Maybe it's a combination of self-reliance and community strength. Maybe each family has their own garden, and the community has a larger farm for crops that are better grown over a large area, such as grains. It's not like I'm going to plant my own wheat.

I think the problem with food production is that it does not make sense to grow most crops on a small scale. I have a fruit tree and there's no way I can consume, can or store all it produces. It is much easier for me to trade with others who have different trees and don't need all their fruit. So maybe I trade my excess apples for peaches, blueberries and grapes.

However, I would be reluctant to work in a cooperative farm where others may not be as inclined toward labor as I am.

I believe the solution is a cooperative "market" where goods are freely traded.

Originally posted by VelmaLu
I'm not so sure that is the answer, either.

Maybe it's a combination of self-reliance and community strength. Maybe each family has their own garden, and the community has a larger farm for crops that are better grown over a large area, such as grains. It's not like I'm going to plant my own wheat.

I think the problem with food production is that it does not make sense to grow most crops on a small scale. I have a fruit tree and there's no way I can consume, can or store all it produces. It is much easier for me to trade with others who have different trees and don't need all their fruit. So maybe I trade my excess apples for peaches, blueberries and grapes.

However, I would be reluctant to work in a cooperative farm where others may not be as inclined toward labor as I am.

I believe the solution is a cooperative "market" where goods are freely traded.

I understand, V; each one will have to deal with this issue; My place here, I have 3 apple trees, and can easily grow an abundance of tomatoes, peppers, enough green beans and corn, squash and okra, potatoes to see me and mine thru and have plenty to share with others;

items like wheat, sugar, many others, all need to be grown on a larger scale that will require a group effort, and everyone will have to contribute in some way; I realize that there will those that will have to be motivated, but hunger is a great motivator.

A return to the old ways and older values that helped make this country great, working together as the Amish do even today will have to be attempted, for individuals going it alone will have a very dificult time of it;

barter and trading, sharing and helping each other will be important.


seeker

They didn't drink it because they knew they didn't have to. They don't have to be 'prepared' and ready to drink water now so they don't. I would be willing to bet that if you had done that after the city shut off all water and there was no water in the store or any stores left in the hot water heater that people would be at your pool side asking for a glass. I wouldn't drink pool water now because I don't have to, but if the circumstances changed then so would my motivation.