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In our opinion, here's the most likely scenario:
Hank Paulson & Co. survey the banking industry and decide who will stay and who will go.
Within a month or two, Paulson buys $250 billion of worthless assets.
Confidence improves modestly, but banks continue to hoard capital and credit markets stay tight.
The credit crunch filters through to consumers
The economic news continues to get worse
The global economy continues to weaken: Europe, Asia, and, eventually, emerging markets