2009 International Crisis - One Man's Theory

It's been a recent topic, over the last week, of a coming International Crisis in the months ahead. I thought I'd throw out my opinion of what I think may transpire since no one has seemed to touch this subject with much depth. Mind you, this is ONLY SPECULATION on my part. I'm not privy to any sort of international intelligence and I don't have any telepathic or psychic abilities. My theories are based solely on international observation mixed with a little common sense.

In my opinion the coming International Crisis has NOTHING to do the economy. As well, it has NOTING to do with Iran. But it has EVERYTHING to do with Nuclear Weapons.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to be specific.

The Pakistani government is extremely fragile at this time since the assassination of, then soon to be elected President, Benazir Bhutto. Following the debacle of his National State of Emergency, President Pervez Musharraf resigned his position. Asif Ali Zardari (Benazir Bhutto's husband) was then elected as the Pakistani President.

One might wonder what in the world is going on with the Pakistani Tribal areas and the recent U.S. incursions that have been making headlines around the world. Recently, Zardari has given speeches denouncing these incursions. Why, after having his wife assassinated, supposedly, by these extremist living in the tribal regions, would Zardari speak out against those fighting the insurgency that has thrived there since the U.S. led invasion of Afghanistan?

Fear. Fear of losing control of his fragile government. Though Zardari may be one of the main components in Pakistan leading the fight against these extremist, Pakistan as a whole (meaning: it's citizens) has questioned U.S. intentions in Afghanistan with the U.S having such a close alliance with India. If you're unfamiliar with Pakistani-Indian relations, I suggest you do some research. In short, it's what allowed Musharraf to lead a bloodless coup and acquire his Presidency originally. Too much backing of the United States and the entire country could turn on Zardari in a split second.

It's my opinion that the world's intelligence agencies have acquired some sort of intelligence of another coup. This one possibly backed by the current Taliban in Pakistan. It's unclear if Beitullah Mehsud still heads the Taliban controlled tribal regions in South Waziristan since rumors of his death surfaced earlier this month.

Needless to say, no matter who takes control of Pakistan if Zardari is unable to maintain his Presidency, they will acquire Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

Anybody want to guess what's next?

I wholeheartedly agree, not enough attention has been given to the Pakistan situation.

India just recently have come out and said that they will possibly carry out future nuclear weapons tests if they feel the need - and that was after they signed the nuclear co-op with the United States.

A radicalized Pakistani dictatorship I feel however, while possible, probably won't be attained, at least before launch know-how for their nuclear weapons has been disabled.

Pakistan have already been turned away from the US, China, and are now asking the IMF to bail out their economy.

A total economic collapse can only lead down a rocky path for Pakistan.

[edit on 28-10-2008 by mattguy404]

Quite true.

But, as with most other terrorists and terroristic organizations, desire trumps all. Whether that is a desire to kill all infidels, a need for funding, or simply the release of captured leaders.

Even with the inability to launch such weapons, whatever faction seizes control of Pakistan will have a rather large bargaining chip. I'm not a big fan of thinking Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Call me optimistic. But, if it is indeed their end goal, can you imagine Iran's interest in Pakistan's arsenal?

The U.S. would then get two birds with one stone.

Guess all we'd have to worry about then in ramping up the propaganda war against Venezuela. North Korea has already learned how to play ball, it seems.

reply to post by tyranny22


That's definetely a possibility but to forecast the events in case of a coup in Paksitan led by radicals it is not an easy task.
In a such scenario undoubtely the risk of an atomic weapons use would be high but I see more a US/Paksitan/India involvment while I don't think Iran would get in.
Iran is mainly on the US black list because of their choice to start using Euro as base currency for the sale of their oil (If I'm not wrong also Saddam Hussien was going on that direction).

Only time wil tell...

I didn't mean to infer that Iran would have any participation in Pakistan's fate. I don't think their international role (do they have a "recognized" role in the international community?) could afford to be caught influencing Pakistan's regime.

What I mean to say is that, if a coup were successful in securing usable nuclear material - and, Iran's intentions of developing nuclear technologies were sinister, I think they'd play a major role in bargaining for that material. Not that I think it's likely.

Not that I think any such coup is likely. But, I do think that Pakistan is at a very difficult time right now.

Even after Zardari's address denouncing the U.S. cross-border attacks, there was an attempted assassination of the President at the Marriott Hotel.

Anyway, it's very obvious to me that Zardari is hesitant of flushing out the extremists in these tribal regions for fear of losing his sway over public opinion. While the extremist turn their gaze away from Afghanistan and toward the Pakistani leadership Zardari continually denounces U.S. incursions. He's become a target. I think the extremists realize the potential that Pakistan could have in their future and efforts have double in the country to destabilizes the regime.

Mark my word. It's not Iran that's going to be "on the table" in the near future ... it's Pakistan.

Whether this "international crisis" that keeps being brought up is an economic or diplomatic still remains to be seen. But it's my opinion, if it is diplomatic ... it's going to be over Pakistan. Not Iran. Not Iraq. Not Afghanistan. I've mentioned this in other threads, but the idea never seems to take a foothold.

Now with the recent earthquake that has happened there, it'll be interesting to see if the U.S. can counter some of the anti-American sentiment that has thrived in the tribal regions. We'll see. It's a delicate game ... one that the extremists are getting better and better at playing.

Oh, gees, use the UN for this minor squabbling.

Fun times ahead for the Marines, I reckon.

Maybe we could just sit back until the weapons are about to be taken this time. Then MOAB the crappola outta them. Hmm?