The Final Stretch

This is the final stretch of the campaign as the candidates do last minute campaigning and shore up their bases. This is what both of the candidates need to do for them to win come November 4.

Barack Obama:

1. Complacency has been a problem in the past for those leading in the polls. Sen Obama has to ensure his supporters get out and vote. The polls show him leading, and many may decide not to vote because "He has already won it".

2. The youth vote. Senior citizen turnout is always extremely high, along with conservative voters. Younger voters stay home and play video games. John Kerry was expecting to win with the young voters in 2004, but they stayed home and George Bush cruised to victory. This will cost Sen Obama the election if the younger voters stay home. His problem is making sure they vote this time instead of promising to vote and staying home. The youth vote is always the lowest amount of turnout.

3. Going after the rural vote. Sen Obama is actually going to West Virginia and Kentucky in the white rural areas. These voters were overwhelmingly for Sen Clinton, and Sen Obama needs to get much more of their support. He may not be able to rely on the younger vote, as they have shown they do not vote. He will need at least 40% of the white vote to win if the same turnout as last election cycle, and that will be very difficult for his campaign.

The Obama campaign has many more offices and volunteers this time, and hope to get the younger people out to vote. Younger volunteers help, and this may finally increase the votes he needs to win. Going to the rural areas shows he cares and is willing to visit "enemy" territory. This may get him some votes he may not have gotten, or votes from people who may not have voted at all.

Sen McCain:

1. He has to make sure his base gets out and votes. They have the highest turnout rate behind the seniors (who will overwhelmingly support him). He has been trying to woo the independent voters, but he has to make sure his base doesn't stay home thinking he has already lost.

2. The undecided voters usually vote for the Republican candidate by 3 to 1, so that will be in Sen McCain's favor. It is hard to tell who is undecided as some people may not tell who they are voting for in the elections. I base this number on past elections, and the voters usually went for the incumbent or Republican. The truly independent voters seem to be favoring Sen Obama, but Sen McCain can still try his maverick status.

3. Minority voters. It seems everyone is talking about the white vote and Sen Obama, but no one is talking about the minority voters and the Republicans. In 2004, George Bush got 45% of the Hispanic vote ensuring his win. John McCain is polling around 30% of this growing population. There have not been many attempts to increase his support in that or other minority votes. As the white voters will decrease even more every four years, the Republican Party needs to recruit more into their ranks. President Bush has had many African Americans in high ranking positions, and that has helped the Republicans. There still needs to be more recruiting efforts to ensure the Republicans stay healthy.

John McCain should use his underdog status to his advantage. Many people support the underdog, and it could lead to more votes from the undecideds out there. Getting the party base and senior vote should be the priority, and Sen McCain can still pull out a victory.

It is interesting to note that both Sen McCain and Gov Palin have been on TV to play up their lighter sides. I thought Gov Palin showed good sportsmanship, but Mark Wahlberg stole the moment when he asked to see Andy Sandburg who did a bad parody of him a few weeks ago. The show itself was a bit better than it has been, but not by much. I thought the rap was amusing, but was disappointed the Gov Palin didn't do it.

The light part will probably take a back seat to the news that Colin Powell is endorsing Barack Obama. This will help Sen Obama with military and veteran voters, as Gen Powell is very well respected.

More states have started early voting, with Florida on Monday. This is ultimately favorable for Sen Obama, and some states have registration/voting at the same time. The campaign is turning from a get people registered to get out the vote mode.

The site 538.com has a humorous and scary at the same time take on race and voting:

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Sen Obama has also peaked at the polls, and Sen McCain hopes to take advantage of that. The problem is the results are small, and Sen McCain is going to need help to give him a bigger boost (October Surprise). As funny as the appearances are, I don't think the target audience was going to vote for them anyway.

I have started to answer this thread a few times, but I get started and then fizzle out. I do agree with your first post.

I find that in these last couple weeks of the election season, I'm simply not too interested in the details. I have voted, so that's behind me. And I've realized that my opinion isn't going to sway anyone. So my participation in threads is more just to get my opinion out there than to hope to sway anyone's opinion.

As regards what the candidates need to do to win the election... I don't think there's any way McCain can win at this time except for:

A false flag operation
Cheating

Both of which may happen.

I think it's important for Obama to do what he's doing. Getting the right endorsements, spending boatloads of money on ads and encouraging people against complacency (which I hope to help him with in these final 2 weeks). He has run a splendid campaign and he should win.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


I voted early too. I like to put down commentary on what is going on, and I thought it would be interesting to point out what both sides need to do to win. I also hope the voting machines work, and there is very little voter fraud. I was happy to see the Supreme Court throw out that ruling on Ohio (It was a technicality, so they can re submit it).
The machines I used were computers, but they had a paper trail which let you see the names printed on it. If there was a mistake, you could ask a volunteer to help and make sure you vote for the candidate you want. I would hope all voting machines have a paper trail, but it is not always the case.

I also like how Sen Obama is not taking things for granted. He is working like the polls are reversed, and that is what needs to be done. I also thought that article on the Pennsylvania voters was interesting, showing that Sen Obama is getting votes from the more racist people.

BH, I think it's very naive to assume at this point that the only way McCain can win is through a false flag or cheating.

As of right now, the race is only about 1 point outside the margin of error, which is by no means a lock for Obama. I find it hard to believe that some Obama supporters just can't accept the fact that perhaps the majority of this country just isn't ready for Obama's (what I consider to be socialist) ideas.

This race is much too close to call right now and won't be decided until election day. To say that the only way McCain can win is through cheating is just plain wrong.

I personally believe the results of this election are going to be a huge shock to both Obama supporters and the media pundits, and I don't think it will have anything to do with cheating or race or any of the other "excuses" the Obama supporters are already coming up with.

reply to post by nyk537


Where do you come up with the upset of Sen Obama in the election (your personal commentary)? I do agree there is the complacency argument that is used by some people, but the campaign has been attacking that problem vigorously. I also agree that Sen Obama's race has little to do with it this time as noted in this story at 538:
www.fivethirtyeight.com...

The McCain campaign is now changing to work at getting an electoral victory. They are forgoing the popular vote to just winning the states they need. From the strategy, it looks like they are trying to win Pennsylvania, which is an uphill battle. In their favor is Pennsylvania does not have early voting like Ohio. They are giving up states such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa to concentrate on this new strategy.

I am also one to think this will be close in the battleground states. The fat lady has not yet sung, and anyone thinking that should remember Dewey of 1948.

[edit on 10/24/2008 by kidflash2008]

Exactly one week from today Americans will go to the polls and elect a president and a new Congress. The polls show that while Sen Obama will probably win the popular vote, the electoral vote will be closer. Most people around the world must think this is a strange way to elect a president, but it assures the small states get some attention. Look at North Dakota, a small state that has seen some activity in it as the Obama campaign tries to turn it blue. It probably won't happen, but the people who live in the state like some of the attention. Montana is another state with the potential to turn blue.
Sen McCain is going all out for the electoral vote win, and his eyes are on Pennsylvania. There are some who think he should concentrate on Ohio and other states, but we will see how the strategy pays off. Virginia looks to go blue for the first time in 44 years, and that will be a blow to the Republicans. With Iowa and New Mexico basically out of reach, Sen McCain needs to go after independent New Hampshire to get back the losses of the other states.

The eyes are on the US Senate race, and how many seats the Democrats will win. There is a possibility of a 60 seat majority, but I doubt it and will make a guess of 55 seats (not including the independents who align with the Democrats). Some of these seats have opened up because of retirements, as in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. Those would have stayed in the Republican hands as they were well liked Senators. It also happens that three popular Democrats are running for the seats, much to the chagrin of Republicans. The other seats are toss-ups, and can go either way.

The House race is a little harder to predict, as some of the more conservative seats may go red this time after turning blue in 2006. It will stay Democrat, but will have that conservative mix with independent minded members that will make it tougher no matter who is elected president. History does show that it does not necessarily matter if the Congress and the president are in the same party. President Carter upset Sen Lloyd Bentsen of Texas by snubbing him for a lunch date. The powerful Senator did not let Pres Carter forget it on the Senate floor. Sometimes it is much easier to work with an opposing party than your own.

The campaigns are switching the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) engines into overdrive, and this is where the ground organizations really come into play. This is an interesting week ahead, as us political junkies look forward to the long Tuesday night.

To be quite honest, I can't wait for this to be over. It's been really exciting and I've enjoyed it, but I'm DONE!

Of course, I will be in heaven watching the election. What fun!

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


I agree with you 100%! I already voted in my state, so I wish I could tell the TV stations not to run the political commercials.

I also can't wait for Tuesday, and will have my map of the USA ready to change from blank to red or blue. If we feel like this, imagine the people running for office. This must put a huge strain on the family and the people themselves.

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
To be quite honest, I can't wait for this to be over.

It's been really exciting and I've enjoyed it, but I'm DONE!

Of course, I will be in heaven watching the election. What fun!

Oh absolutely, I will be glued to the tv for hours. Finally, it will all be over, but at the same time. I will miss it. I love election night. Definitely having a party.