10/9/08 - FSME Denninger Special Report - IT'S HERE!

Originally posted by TH3ON3

I think the speculation is premature and it will proly take much more than a bad stretch in the world markets to really crash the global economy.

Everyone is focused on the "World Markets", aka the Stock Exchanges.

That is not what is causing this. The markets could go up and the problem would still be as bad or worse.

The problem is the credit markets, the government bond markets, and trust between banks, counterparties and other governments.

The stock markets are just now reacting to events that have been increasing in severity for 18 months. They keep getting worse, and the solution is always to throw more money at the problem. That won't fix it.

reply to post by CoffinFeeder


Coffin, I am glad things up where you are are chugging right along.

But where I am at, businesses have began to feel the tightening of the credit markets. I won't go into detail here, if you wish you can U2U me and I'll go into further detail. If what I heard today is true, my area could see some substantial job losses. The trickle down effect of this trust crisis is just starting to be felt in SC industry circles.

I will agree, however, that this whole mess seems a bit overblown. But the end result, I fear, will be the further erosion of our constitution and national sovereignty. I believe THAT is where your "fork" is sticking right now. Not in the OP's theories, but in the US Constitution.

Originally posted by CoffinFeeder
your banks are not going to start closing up left and right,

Okay then, now not only do I think you didn't read the thread, but I don't think you have a clue. Banks have been closing left and right for months now. And I really gotta ask if you don't entertain at all banks closing, why would you have asked this just two weeks ago in another thread?

Originally posted by CoffinFeeder
Question to ponder: if the bank that services your loan fails, disappears, goes belly up, whatever.. more or less, ends up disappearing.. what happens to your mortgage and property? One would assume that the bank has more or less a fire sale for its mortgages.. but what if yours is one thats not picked up?I'm sure it'll matter depending on how your loan was done.. as in the bank owns it until you pay off, or you own it and the bank has/had a lein on teh deed.

You haven't got a clue how a bank loan works but you are certain the banks are fine? Here - take my last plastic fork and feed yourself some information/education. We are here after all to deny ignorance, are we not?

* 19 pages - shakes head and cries*

[edit on 10/11/2008 by Relentless]

I call tell you that right now, in Maine, the lobster industry is collapsing. They have perishable merchandise that needs to move quickly from source to market. The inability of the Canadian processors to obtain credit has stranded tons of lobster on the coast. The price per pound has dropped to levels last seen when Jimmy Carter was President. This is one of those industries that runs on a very tight supply chain, they tend to show disruptive effects first.

Economic Crisis Effects Maine Lobster Industry

We gotta give some of the scoffers a break, remember they are in great company:

From a “Wall Street Analysis” by Thomas C. Shotwell in “The World Almanac for 1929”:

“The market is following natural laws of economics and there is no reason why both prosperity and the market should not continue for years at this high level or even higher.”

Bernard Baruch, financier and presidential adviser, in The American Magazine, June 1929:

“The economic condition of the world seems on the verge of a great forward movement.”

The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 1929:

“The outlook for the fall months seems brighter than at any time.”

Irving Fisher, professor of economics at Yale University, in The New York Times, Sept. 6, 1929. He ended up losing much of his wealth in the crash:

“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”

The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 11, 1929, quoting Mark Twain in its thought for the day:

“Don’t part with your illusions; when they are gone, you may still exist, but you have ceased to live.”

Arthur Reynolds, chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, Oct. 24, 1929:

“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”

The New York Times, Oct. 26, 1929:

“Cautioning against hysterical selling, brokerage houses in their market letters this morning will strike a note of optimism, advising the purchase of seasoned stocks at the present low levels. The public is strongly urged not to liquidate stocks in the present market.”

J. L. Julian, a partner in the financial firm Fenner & Beane, in The New York Times, Oct. 26, 1929:

“The worst is over. The selling yesterday was panicky brought on by hysteria. General conditions are good. Our inquiries assure us that throughout the country business is sound.”

The Harvard Economic Society, November 1929:

“A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. We are not facing protracted liquidation.”

Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, Nov. 15, 1929:

“Financial storm definitely passed.”

President Herbert Hoover on Dec. 3, 1929, in a speech before a joint session of Congress:

“I am convinced ... we have re-established confidence. Wages should remain stable. A very large degree of industrial unemployment and suffering which would otherwise have occurred has been prevented.”

Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon, Dec. 31, 1929, in a statement issued while he was yachting off Nassau, the Bahamas, on his winter vacation:

“I see nothing ... in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism. During the winter months there may be some slackness or unemployment but hardly more than at this season each year. I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during the coming year the country will make steady progress.”

Of course, not everyone was so optimistic.

Roger Babson, a well-known businessman and publisher of business and financial statistics, offered this warning in a speech before a business conference in Wellesley, Mass., on Sept. 5, 1929:

“More people are borrowing and speculating today than ever in our history. Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific. Wise are those investors who now get out of debt and reef their sails.”

It should be noted, perhaps, that the year before, Mr. Babson had said that

“the election of Hoover and a Republican Congress should result in continued prosperity in 1929.”

[edit on 10/11/08 by redhatty]

reply to post by toepick


I've mentioned before, but I'll mention again - I'm a baker by trade (hate the term "pastry chef," sometimes tell people my job title is "Dessert Queen"). I work in a restaurant, nothing super fancy/expensive, but decent - and I'm at the point that I'm being forced to consider a career change of some sort. People love to go out to eat. Dining out is one of the last "luxuries" people give up when their money is tight. Think about it - most of us have been through tough times before, right? How many have made it a point to try and budget in a "night out" once a week, once a month, whatever?
Restaurants and bars...usually some of the last luxuries to fall during an economic downturn. People need to feel they can afford a meal out and then drink away their money woes later.

The kid and I stopped in at the restaurant this evening right during what is normally Saturday's dinner rush.
There were 4 occupied tables in the dining room.
Last Monday the day's total was 3 tables for lunch and 2 for dinner - 5 tables for the entire day.
It's been like this for 4 weeks now, and a month before that I saw business begin to fall off fast. The other restaurants in town saw the same thing at the same time. One has already closed down.

When the restaurants lose business to this degree, there's a real problem. That's Main Street talking and talking loud.

reply to post by anachryon


I remember that post actually, and had it in mind when I was talking to my partner at work about the hotel industry...I live in a screwed place to evaluate the immediate impact of the economy with the exception of the tourist industry. I live next door to Fort Drum, so the impacts that I do see are from a different nature, unfortunately.

MONDAY OCTOBER THE 13TH IS THE 700TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE PURGING OF THE KNIGHTS TEMPLAR

IT BEGINS ON MONDAY, I'M SURE MOST OF YOU WHO ARE AWAKE FEEL IT IN THEIR BONES TOO

www.youtube.com...

It is on right now. Use Exploder because Firefox does not like KFYI

www.kfyi.com...

reply to post by pluckynoonez


Listening now...KD will be on the air for the next two hours, lines opening soon..you don't like the OP's post..call and tell him, would love to hear you arguing about it on the air :p

Edit - LOL its all good until it gets to the politics..basicly, Obama and McCain - no change!! (it even rhymes). I just wonder who would have come out on top if this financial crisis would have happened while the RNC debates were still going on (see sigy for hint)..but bejezzez even Huckaby did better then McCain during the debates lol ugh...

[edit on 10/11/2008 by toepick]

Originally posted by Mainer
I call tell you that right now, in Maine, the lobster industry is collapsing. They have perishable merchandise that needs to move quickly from source to market. The inability of the Canadian processors to obtain credit has stranded tons of lobster on the coast. The price per pound has dropped to levels last seen when Jimmy Carter was President. This is one of those industries that runs on a very tight supply chain, they tend to show disruptive effects first.

Economic Crisis Effects Maine Lobster Industry

Yep. The food supply chain is breaking down. I knew it would come to this.

I said so to family members a few weeks ago, and they laughed.

[sigh]

reply to post by toepick


I called and wanted to talk about my cat being abducted by aliens but could not get through! Maybe next time.

reply to post by Amaterasu


if I remember from a previous post..your not far from SYR? I'm just a bit up north from ya, in Clayton (Fort Drum). Great country up here, I know farmers!! if the shtf, hit me up with a u2u and some contact info..I don't know, we can take over Bolt Castle or something!

The entire two hours was Denninger - lots of call ins.

Someone has posted the entire show (an MP3) here:

wakingideas.com...

Went to the malls today and it was slammed. I was thinking it would be empty as I hate shopping and everyone is pumping up the great depression hysteria, so I was hoping people would buy it and not go out and shop! Tried to get a seat at a restaurant for dinner and everywhere near the mall had a 1-3 hour wait time.

Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky and more people will buy the panic hype in the few months when I next have to go to the mall to do Christmas shopping. Lord knows I'd love to be able to find a parking spot without hunting for one for 45 minutes.

No Depression This Time

In the 1930s, nobody in the private sector could borrow, raise equity or sell insurance because everyone lost trust in everyone else. Uncle Sam stood on the sidelines and marveled at the chaos. But today Uncle Sam is saying, "Listen, if you households and firms are too scared to invest in each other or sell each other insurance, give us your money, and we'll do it for you. We'll pay you a sure return on the Treasuries and, if our investments and insurance sales do well, you'll benefit by paying lower taxes."

This may sound like socialism or state capitalism, but it's simply rearranging the financial furniture. As Americans have freaked out, Uncle Sam has stepped up. He'll continue doing so until we realize the sky is not falling. The $700 billion rescue authorizes the federal government to keep doing what it has been doing for the past year to the tune of $400 billion -- buying distressed assets at bargain-basement prices and selling insurance at high premiums. If all works out, Uncle Sam will make a killing. This would be great, given our government's real problem -- paying the long-term Social Security and medical costs of retiring baby boomers.

Laurence J. Kotlikoff, a professor of economics at Boston University, is co-author of "Spend 'Til the End." Perry Mehrling is a professor of economics at Columbia University's Barnard College and author of "Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance."

Source: www.washingtonpost.com...

Now, what are the credentials of the "subject matter expert" who is trying to tell us that the sky is falling? Unless its a PhD from Harvard, or someone whose an investment banker, I do think I'll trust economists at Boston University and Columbia who are top ranked and have a history of being on the mark. Really ATS should be ashamed at giving people "subject matter expert" tags that promote panic like this.

[edit on 12-10-2008 by LowLevelMason]

when the higher ups in our system have thier hands in the cookie jar all the time well what do you exspect , a non flawed system. go back to work on that big check of yours, because the higher up, rats left the ship. so america can pick up the shhhh. so when your bank collapses, how much do you think will your work check be when you cash it. example, for a 200 dollar check you might get 20 cents when cashed, if your bank fails. global meltdown. hey, how do you feel about being an endentured servant to pay off that massive debt usa has with a work check cashed for 20 cents. oh by the way your rent will still be 850 dollars a month. time to move out. where you going. oh , your hungry, well rob the local grocery store, or maybe you can use that 20 cents for a down payment on a candy bar.

[edit on 12-10-2008 by estrip]

reply to post by LowLevelMason


Are you in Daytona where Biketoberfest is gearing up? Seriously - where are you?

I'm not going defend myself anymore for sharing this information, read the thread, read the links. Listen to the Radio show posted.

Did you miss the IMF link where THE IMF said yesterday exactly what I posted info on at the start of the thread?

No, I am not a harvard grad (thank god), but I posted info from someone who is ahead of the curve (and has been for a while). He was quoted in the NY Times yesterday - he is no wack job, and he was quoted along with a lot of credible people.

I'm not going to argue any further with people who aren't reading the thread. Plenty of credible information is already posted. Take it or leave it. Seriously - you don't know anyone who's hurting? Please tell me where you live, cause I want to live in the dark too.

reply to post by estrip


The date reflects a possible indication the poster is from across the pond, or doesn't realize his/her settings are for that format, as over there they post dates with the day first, then the month. Or dyslexia?

[edit on 10/12/2008 by Relentless]

Global Leaders are discussing closing all markets while they straighten this out?

www.abovetopsecret.com...&flagit=400435

Op's source is bloomberg folks - you can't make this stuff up.