Repercutions to the Georgia-Russia conflict

The conflict in Georgia has revealed to the world many things.

- US allies, like Taiwan, are no more protected by the US.
- The only consequences you'll have if you invade a minor US ally if you're a superpower, will be a strong worded letter.

That leads me to think about China and Taiwan.

Taiwan is an ally of the US, but not in NATO. The US is stuck in Iraq/Afghanistan and the navy is committed near Iran. China is playing nice for the olympics, but after that? They are in a ``let's show our glory to the world, let's show them we are a superpower`` kind of mentality... so they could decide to go ahead and get back Taiwan.

So I think that in next couple of months/years, we'll see China take back by force Taiwan. The moment they choose to do it will depend on the boldness of the chinese government.

If they wait for the US to attack Iran? Wait for the US economy to collapse? Or just do it when they feel like it? Because before the olympics, no one ``dare`` touch an US ally. Now the precedent have been set. There's a new order in the world... a new world order.

What do you think?

[edit on 19-8-2008 by Vitchilo]

"Chinese Taipei", if you are following the Olympics a takeover would be a mere formality at this point. The world does not back Taiwan.

Another repercution, but on a lesser degree, is Israel.

Israel neighboors, as always, want to get rid of Israel. They have reasons after all, not just religious reasons.

The government in Pakistan have now been ``overthrown`` we'll see how this turns out. For now the Pakistanis nukes are supposed to be in US hands aka guarded by US special forces. The others puppet regimes in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are just hanging with the US because they are paid and use the police to oppress their people. But all things comes to an end... like it did in 1979 in Iran.

When the US economy fail, the enemies of Israel will see Israel as weak and may go after it. With Iran ballistics missiles, maybe nukes soon, and Syria contracts of modern weaponery with Russia, like the nuclear capable Iskander missiles, they will have an advantage against Israel. Back in the day, in the 73 war, no enemies of Israel had impressives missiles capabilities and had only outdated weapons.

Saudi Arabia have modern stuff... M1A2 tanks, F-15E aircrafts...

Egypt also have modern stuff. 225 F-16s, MiG-21s, F-7 Skybolts, F-4 Phantom, Mirage 5, Mirage 2000 and soon Mig-29. Americans M1A2, M60A3, M160A5, Crotale anti-air missiles... modern stuff.

Jordan have only F-16s...

So unless Israel gets F-22s... and a bunch of them, Israel could not sustain an all-out assault by Egypt, Syria, Lebanon Hizbullah, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Jordan armed forces. They would be forced to use nuclear weapons.

[edit on 20-8-2008 by Vitchilo]

The one repercussion I noticed (in MSM, no less, though they didn't make the connection) is that Poland has finally agreed to let the USA build missile defence in their country.

www.nationalpost.com...

Mr. Sikorski has insisted that the timing of the deal was "pure coincidence" and said Russia would be invited to inspect the base to ensure that Moscow was not its target. The war in the Caucasus has had a dramatic effect on public opinion in Poland, previously skeptical about the benefits of the shield. Latest surveys show that 58% are now in favour, almost twice the number who supported it six months ago.

"Pure coincidence?" Maybe, but I doubt it. And twice the number of people support the shield than two months ago. What was the biggest event in the area? The Russia-Georgia conflict. If you look at some other ATS threads or the news/history, you'll see the USA has been an active supporter of Georgia, so they clearly have an interest in what happens in this area of the world.

There was another thread on ATS where people were discussing whether McCain knew about the trouble in Georgia before it happened. I don't think much of McCain at all, but I do wonder whether the Bush administration knew anything beforehand or not.