The Singularity Is Near!

I just finished reading "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil and my Weltanschauung has changed irrevocably. The main premise is that humanity will change very rapidly in this century, indeed 'rapid' is an unequivocal understatement. In the book Kurweil argues that a nanotechnology revolution in the 2020's will result in complete immunity and preservation of human bodies and organs. Biotechnology and more specific the field of Biogerentology lead most notably by Aubrey De Grey will find ways to treat and even reverse the effects of aging (in fact tremendous progress has made just recently in mice: www.abc.net.au... ... te=science) so that by approximately 2030 biological immortality will have become feasible (subtracting of course the possibility of accidential death).
This phase of the Transhumanist paradigm shift is only the beginning however. With the rapid growth in processing capacity derived from Moore's Law and new processing technologies including three-dimensional processing, a la the human brain, and quantum computing this trend is expected to continue exponentially almost asymptotic. Very soon computers will match the processing capacity of the human brain. After this it should be technically feasible to upload a human brain in a simulated environment every bit as real as our own. By "backing-up" our consciousness we can assure that any accident that may befall us does not result in our untimely death. In this simulated environment we can take any shape we want and transform the shapes of those around us anyway we want, activities deemed unnecessary can be removed entirely such as the cumbersome tasks of breathing, sleeping, and defecating. The simulation will be so real that it could not be differentiated from what we perceive to be "reality," through a interconnected communications system such as the internet we would be able to access any knowledge at any time and store it in ourselves indefinitely.
Ray Kurzweil estimates the time for the actual "singularity" at 2045 although considering humans will already be essentially immortal waiting wouldn't be as unbearable. Once the singularity happens a single $1000 computer will have the processing capacity of the entire human race (again this follows Moore's Law trends). At this time AI will take over as the most capable intelligence on the planet, and since the distinction will be blurred between AI and cyborgs (the fate of the human species) there will probably be no dystopia ending of the human race. Around the time of the singularity physical existence will probably be deemed antiquarian because the human species will be able to control physical "reality" through simulated "reality." Furthermore technology (likely in the form of advanced nanobots) will be able to change all physical matter into pure information. Physicists have determined that a one kilogram object has the calculating power of 5x10^50 cps (through quantum calculation at Plank's length) which is many many times more than the total mental capacities of all humans that have ever existed (a human has calculation power of approximately 10^16 cps). Kurzweil asserts that the ultimate fate of the universe will be to transform into a giant, efficient computer, and that we will be able to be anyone, do anything we want in the simulation, to have complete freedom for all eternity and a complete understanding of the laws of physics, mathematics, our neurology and how and why we exist. Furthermore (as if that wasn't enough) we will be able to physically manipulate the laws of physics, retrieve the consciousness of historical figures, and preoccupy ourselves in simulations akin to Earth.

:Brain Asplodes:

On a personal note I'm 19 and I feel absolutely honored to have been born in this time, as an atheist and nihilist technology interjects whole new meaning to life and understanding. For more information go here:
en.wikipedia.org...

we have already changed rapidly in the past 60 or so years and we still are, and we would be going much much faster if money was not an issue.

reply to post by declassified


I don't think its money that is the primary issue, its resources. Wars cost money and use government resources otherwise reserved for research and not enough kids are studying math and science. But I digress, I should have asked some good topic initiating questions in my post but used up the maximal amount of characters so here are some:
What are your opinions of this (just because you aren't able to fully grasp it doesn't mean its implausable)?
Do you think we could be living in a simulated environment (futurist Nick Bostrom puts the odds at around 20%)
Is the idea of omniscience and complete immortality appealing to you?

Discuss!

You could kinda count money as a resource too. So yeah, resources (including money) are the cause of problems that distract from science.

Anyway, it sounds good to me for the most part. Sure there are some downsides though, I'd bet. Nothing is ever perfect.

[edit on 15-8-2008 by GrayFox]

In the near future, once man gets a foothold off planet for real.

There will be limitless resources. Money will mean nothing.

What will the new currency which drives human interaction be?


Respect.


Someone with a good idea, and a history of reliability, will simply be worth the effort. Others will follow them, because they are interesting and have a potential for success.

People will go off in every conceivable direction for every conceivable cause. But what will make life worth living when machines can do everything for you, and do it better? What will get backing, is the opportunity to do something interesting yourself.

The Richard Branson's of the world, will be king!

reply to post by GrayFox


Technology is progressing because there are immense amounts of profit to be made in the sector. The reason Moore's law is so accurate is because people constantly want higher processing capacity and so chip makers like Intel have to work to keep up with demand. Its not unreasonable to predict with these trends that by 2020 a $1000 computer will have the cps (calculations per second) rate of the human brain as well as higher memory capacity. This talk about money is a deviation, the singularity is an inevitability due to the fact that people prefer expediency and convenience over labor. Scientists are working around the clock because this field is so profitable, to think that there are monetary limitations is very naive.

reply to post by Cyberbian


Nice post, I agree. Although I think there will be an infinite range of entertainment venues in the future. Notable simulations akin to Earth.

Originally posted by Cyberbian
In the near future, once man gets a foothold off planet for real.

Which men?

There will be limitless resources. Money will mean nothing.

Only for those men, and money/currency will STILL mean something!

What will the new currency which drives human interaction be?

Doesn't matter, people will always want more and they will always want what themselves and others can't afford!

Do you seriously think governments, banks and financial institutions would just stop lending currency to fuel their profits....I think not!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

All these "idealistic" notions are fine, but in the big sceme of things...some men(women) will always be created more equal than others.

[edit on 15/8/2008 by nerbot]

ice come to the conclusion that i refuse to listen to anybodys argument against imortality.
they why is simple.
since Nobody has Yet to live 1000 years in the body/brain of a 25 year old i dont think anybody has a real clue of what there talking about.

i firmly belive when people think of living 100+ years they are thinking of what it would be like in a body that has aged acordingly.
living for thousandes of years while being both young in body / fresh mind and having an engaging study ( plantary exploration from a ship 100 clicks long that has ftl coms / drives) seems to Not be that bad of a thought. i can sure think of worst things hahah

War is big business, and actually pushes the boundaries of science, shame we work best when trying to kill each other. As for allowing your conscience to be placed in 'storage' to avoid death, to me, that sort of takes away life, or IMO, our evolution of soul. If we are reincarnated every time to learn new lessons and experiences, this will seriously hinder our progress, then again I could be wrong.

Nice idea, but I probably wouldn't do it. (I say that now when I'm young, lol)

EMM

Originally posted by innominate
reply to post by GrayFox

 

This talk about money is a deviation, the singularity is an inevitability due to the fact that people prefer expediency and convenience over labor. Scientists are working around the clock because this field is so profitable, to think that there are monetary limitations is very naive.

In your OP and in your comment above your are seeing this from a purely western perspective. It is limited.The vast majority of the third worlds population do not prefer expediency and convienience of labour, infact they prefer getting a little bit of food and water, and perhaps shelter. There is also the tendancy for fundamentalism to grow in conjunction with scientific and technological breakthroughs. Notice how advanced we are today, and how many fundamentalists there are. So there is a question of opposition to the breakthroughs and predictions that you highlite in your OP. And the quetion of wether it will be universal or simply another western dream. Time will tell if these are "inevitable" or not, just IMHO. Great post. Very interesting.

Given how long the universe has been around, who's to say a singularity hasn't happened for us or aliens? We could be living in a simulation right now to learn and evolve, considering super computers can process so much so fast, your current life could happen within seconds in true time but would be experienced at a relative speed as a life times worth of time.

Anyway presuming its possible one day, i don't get how anyone would be excited by the idea of backing up the brain to a computer, you do realise no matter what you do the backup won't be you as it were, its more like a copy than your consciousness being transferred, no the only way to get some level of advancement would be augmentation, adding technology to the body to increase memory and processing power, plus senses and direct communications, of course who knows what else that would involve but the moment the brain is gone how can whats left be you in a machine?

Also paragraphs, use them!

What if we were to pose the notion that a sort of Singularity–albeit a localized one–could have occurred already on our planet? This is a difficult notion to consider, since many argue it would be entirely unlikely, if not impossible, for something so remarkable and transformational to have occurred among only a select group, without the rest of the planet’s population being affected. However, what if some secretive organization could have, for instance, utilized suppressed technology for the last several decades, some of which likely even would have resulted in reports of advanced aircraft we call UFOs?

Almost without a doubt there are a variety of “secret” innovations that occur annually, and due to factors like their economic impact on a global scale, many are kept secret for purposes of not derailing existing markets (this is especially the case with the oil industry). If any one group could have access to remarkable technologies the general public didn’t know about, they might also have benefited from them in ways the populace would not.

In general terms this outlines the possibility, at very least, regarding how a “localized” Singularity might even occur here on Earth… and if such were to ever be the case, how might people like you or I interpret things if we did manage to catch a fleeting glimpse of, for instance, strange objects or foreign-looking aircraft buzzing through our skies?

In essence, either of these hypothetical scenarios, each involving greater than present human intelligence, could also outline the way a post-Singularity intelligence might already be present on Earth. Thus, rather than being right around the corner, evidence of a technological Singularity expected within next several decades might already be visible, on occasion, in places like our skies. The “Singularity” is actually here, given such criteria, and the evidence for a vast and strange future wildly different from our own has been right here alongside us for quite some time already.

The Singularity is the foundation from which space and time are derived. The first instance of finite amongst all that is infinite. The One. Even though it is composed of infinite characteristics. It is the transition point between all that is finite and the infinite.

reply to post by innominate


Didn't you know? The Singularity already happened a long time ago. We are just in one of the ancestor simulations:

The Singularity Project

Q: What if there’s a supersecret U.S. “Singularity Project” — the ultimate showdown with, say, China? Would people totally freak out and try to close the project down?

A: Better to go with a soft (gradual) takeoff, while a covert hard (fast) takeoff has already happened underground. And the resulting superintelligence has been sort of slowly leaking out, like the radioactivity at Fukushima Daiichi going into the Ocean….

These things are being tested on us to see how well they will work on the elite, who will be the only ones left.
Also living forever means being trapped here forever, much better things await me in the afterlife.