Russian jets targeted major oil pipeline-Georgia

reply to post by SectionEight


havnt you ever heard of "who benifits"?
what do the russians stand to gain from attacking the pipeline?
pissing off the whole world at them...not exactly the best strategy. especially when you cant even hit the pipeline you are supposedly attacking.

what do the georgians stand to gain?
pissing off the whole world at russia, so they will recieve help in a war that they started and will probably lose.

think logically.

Bend your tinfoil hats out of shape on this one,

Nobody here at ATS, and I seached all the threads high and low, has stated the obvious.

Russia does not want Georgia to be in NATO.
Georgia cannot enter NATO with contested territories.
Russia is getting what she wants with this war. She backed the seperatists from day one and this little escalation will keep tensions up for years to come.
It looks like the winner is Russia, no matter the outcome of the actual war fighting.

Georgia basically had no choice. They need to secure the territory, no other option. Russian power will make that impossible though.

Final analysis, there is no way the west can win in this area. Zoom out to larger global picture......The US can easily through back channels of communication barter with the Russians now. No support for Iran from Russia means no western support for Georgia, all sides pleased and handshakes all around.

I believe Russia missed it on purpose.

Russia is not as stupid as some people who post replies.

They know if they cut off the oil to UK/EU/Nato countries, this would basicly be declaring war on ALL NATO,

Russia does not want that.

Russia wants to be able to bomb Georgia at will with out interference.

Right now, Nato is on the sidelines doing nothing-except, perhaps, providing weapons to help Georgia defend itself from Russia.

If Russia blows the pipeline, then it must deal with real militaries, not just helpless Georgia.

Missing the oil pipeline sounds like a threat. I would imagine there are those who would love the price of oil to stay up and will do this as an excuse. Time will tell. And I have my doubts we should get involved in another Pearl Harbor war pact scenario again. Having these people in Iraq was a blunder or if not, a planned scenario.

Imagine if China was to hold Bush for war crimes now. Would we just say...eh, whatever?

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
The points about disinfo are well taken. My question would be, How do we know who blew it if the rebels or georgia do it themselves? As stated, they are trying to get some help any way they can.

Of course the effect on the price of oil would be the same regardless of who did it.

Thats a problem in itself. If the pipeline goes, then both sides will blame each other.

Being that unofficial separatists stated they would blow it if NATO got involved, then the blame will quickly be placed on the separatists.

And no, to another poster, it's not in the best interest for Georgia if the pipeline goes. Thats one of their few remaining bargaining chips with NATO. Not to mention, if they pull NATO into the fight, Georgia becomes one big battleground, with extreme numbers of civilian casualties in Georgia. Basically there would be no way the people would permit that regime back into power again, they'd blame the current government for allowing such a devastating war to start.


My fear is whether there are third parties who might benefit from damage done to both sides. An outside party might hire someone to blow that pipeline if the outcome of an all out war benefits them.

I don't know who would benefit at the moment, only they would know. But there are instances throughout history of third parties escalating a war between two nations just for their own gain.

Originally posted by mrmonsoon
I believe Russia missed it on purpose.

Originally posted by aleon1018
Missing the oil pipeline sounds like a threat.

These two statements make me think: threat to who? NATO? Why? NATO is already aware of the volatility of the situation. Russia cannot handle NATO and the West getting involved.

Here is a map of the BTC pipeline:



Just this week there was a suspicious fire on the Turkish section of the pipe. Suspicions are that the PKK was involved.

news.yahoo.com...

Suddenly, the strategic importance of this pipeline has been brought to the forefront.

No, Russia have just hit it.

The damage, however, isn't that bad and the pipeline is still working.

Originally posted by SectionEight
Bend your tinfoil hats out of shape on this one,
...

Final analysis, there is no way the west can win in this area. Zoom out to larger global picture......The US can easily through back channels of communication barter with the Russians now. No support for Iran from Russia means no western support for Georgia, all sides pleased and handshakes all around.

That is one bold forecast! Perhaps as likely as any other stated perception thus far, except; I can't envision the 'trust' which would have to be extended between Russia and the US on holding true to such an agreement. Neither nation's government has, as they have repeatedly demonstrated, earned that kind of trust. Only a fool would expect them to cease and desist pursuing their own economic, or strategic objectives because they are all of the bent that the "ends justifies the means" (personally, that meme irks me).

I had imagined that should anything happen to that pipeline, it would provide justification to NATO policy makers (recognizing that we all have different ideas on who the 'policy makers' REALLY are) are looking for to declare;

"Look, these are globally important locations that MUST be protected for the sake of all, therefore we either Grant Georgia NATO status (optimal for them i guess) and set up a NATO military post to protect the place from internal unrest. OR, We appeal to the UN for an international peace keeping presence; (effectively the same result). Event the threat alone may be sufficient to end this way.

Once you add the 'radical-extremist-terrorist-insurgent-freedom fighter-patriot-hero' nonsense into the equation we have a reaffirmation in the notion that there can be a 'War on Terrorism" carried out by the 'global community' --- see?

But would this mean that "Russia" acted in the capacity of agent provacateur in the matter? Would anyone make the public accusation? Certainly not the US, who's shameless forays into this, lowest form of ideological, economic, political, or moral warfare, (pick one) are legendary.

We are faced with the declaration that any state that foments terror is a terrorist state, no? We are in an ugly place, considering that we have yet to be convinced that some theatrical contrivance is being inserted into the conflict, who's true directors are yet to be defined.

reply to post by jsobecky


I would be honored if you would allow me to add you to my friends list. I am consistently impressed with your contributions, regardless of whether we agree on the topic or not. Star for you, as a thank you.

Originally posted by manson_322
reply to post by johnsky

 

yes do expect the silly western govts to make some catcalls , but when it comes to a battle with Russia neither USA/NATO are willing nor do they have the guts to ....

Nor does Russia.

reply to post by Maxmars


It's simple, free reign in Georgia is bartered for free reign in Iran. The Russians can make it ugly by sending in support to Iran and so can the US make Georgia into an ugly place by pumping support into there. Both sides get what they want without having to get too dirty.

'I don't think the Georgian government is insane enough to try that. '

Never underestimate a cornered and desperate enemy, scorched earth tactics are always an option even by loyalist guerilla's long after.

Any word on whether Turkish ships are indeed moving towards Poti where the Russian air strike was?

Russian Black Sea fleet is now moving South near Abkhazia.

Very interesting piece of info on the pipeline which was supposedly targeted by Russian air force but not hit:


BP has received no reports so far that the pipeline has been damaged.

And get this - the pipeline has actually been shut-off since August 6 according to BP!

Isn't that convinient. One of the major pipelines gets shut off less than 2 days before Georgia launches a surprise attack on South Ossetia.

link is in Russian
lenta.ru...

Originally posted by johnsky
Somethings not right about this, Oil Pipelines aren't exactly easy to miss, especially for a trained pilot.

I'm sorry, but if the Ruskies aimed for that pipeline, it wouldn't be there anymore.

Clearly they were after something nearby.

Perhaps the Georgia war is a false flag operation for Russia to get more troops into the region in expectation of an attack on Iran by the U.S.

[edit on 9-8-2008 by In nothing we trust]

reply to post by maloy


excellent post! good find! i think you deserve some applause for that one. i would like to be non objective about this conflict but georgia is engaging in some serious false propaganda and dirty tricks...and i think we all know who put georgia up to this attack in the first place.

reply to post by johnsky


The pipeline is buried deeply in the region to keep the terrorists from getting it very easy.

Remember what I said yesterday, this is an oil war. Russia wants that pipeline because its pumping light oil to the EU, US and nato countries. Their oil is poor quality and does not bring the same prices because it is more expensive to refine.

I said this just yesterday if they touch the pipeline we go from defcon 3 up to defcon 2. WE already have submarine nukes targeting Moscow at this point. Most likely you family members in the service have been put on alert as well.

A day early thats all. I also said we were going to all be fighting under the BP flag.

[edit on 9-8-2008 by Illahee]

reply to post by Illahee


Good points, Illahee...

On the shutdown of the pipeline;

Explosion halts oil flow through BTC pipeline: agency

Wed Aug 6, 2:38 AM

Oil flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was cut Wednesday after an explosion sparked a fire in a section in eastern Turkey, local officials told Anatolia news agency.

The incident occurred around midnight in a pump at a section near the eastern town of Refahiye, in Erzincan province, the agency said.


Refahiye sub-governor Mehmet Makas ruled out the possibility of a sabotage, saying that a fault in the system had been detected before the blast.ca.news.yahoo.com...

A lot of the pipeline is buried as well...

Security
Concerns have also been addressed about the security of the BTC pipeline.[28][29] It deliberately bypasses the border of Armenia (with which Azerbaijan is still technically at war over the status of the Armenian-populated separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan), crosses through Georgia (which has two unresolved separatist conflicts) and goes through the edges of the Kurdish region of Turkey (which has seen a prolonged and bitter conflict with separatists).[30] It will require constant guarding to prevent sabotage, though the fact that almost all of the pipeline is buried will make it harder to attack.

On 6 August 2008, a major explosion and fire in eastern Turkey Erzincan Province closed the pipeline. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for the attack.[31] It is expected to take to five weeks to repair the pipeline.[32]



en.wikipedia.org...

*bolding mine



edit to include link





[edit on 9/8/08 by masqua]

reply to post by TheRepublic

Originally posted by TheRepublic
reply to post by maloy

 

excellent post! good find! i think you deserve some applause for that one. i would like to be non objective about this conflict but georgia is engaging in some serious false propaganda and dirty tricks...and i think we all know who put georgia up to this attack in the first place.

The pipeline is shut off in Turkey because of the fires still burning there. However, the pipeline in Georgia is still full of oil waiting to be delivered downstream. See the link I posted above:

news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by manson_322


Russa keeps up with pushing countries around and playing the Bully
Well they are going to get a black eye,,, dont push the US
This might get hot people ,, but Russa is asking for it