Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

Here are my further thoughts on what is taking place:

Russia has cleared out most of S. Ossetia from Georgian troops. Whatever Georgian troops are in or around S. Ossetia now pose little threat to the republic.

It seems that Russia is continuing its strikes - both air and ground against the Georgian military - in order to force Saakashvilli's military and then government to capitulate. Saakashvilli hold much of his power largely through the military forces he has build up. If the militatary is decimated, so is his powerbase. Russia wants to use this opportunity to deal a lethal blow to his administration - perhaps hoping that without his military he will be ousted by the Georgian opposition parties.


So far Russian troops have only thrust into those Georgian towns where Georgians have the largest military formations. This signifies that they are after the Georgian military not Georgian land. Why would Russia to this if it wanted to occupy Georgia? Wouldn't it make sense to first occupy the towns where there is no military presence and then move on? And why Senaki? It is further than Gori from Tbilisi. If Russia wants to occupy Tbilisi surely it would have pushed into Gori and Kaspi right now.



So here is my prediction:

Russia will continue to assault Georgian military forces around Abkhazia and South Ossetia - but it will not occupy Georgian towns. It will continue to pound Georgian forces untill Saakashvilli either capitulates or calls on his troops to ceasefire and put down weapons first.

Any word on the status of Georgian troops in Gori or their loses there?

[edit on 11-8-2008 by maloy]

Sky News just spoke to its Washington correspondent on TV, who said that about half an hour ago, President Bush was interviewed by some journalists aboard Air Force One. When asked if the U.S. could use military action, Bush declined to comment.

Condi Rice has made about 50 phone calls, apparently.

[edit on 11-8-2008 by chips]

reply to post by Harlequin


I do not mean leading forces. I am doing search in the net :
X minister, Georgian conflict.
Poland expressed its position.

Poland's President Lech Kaczynski condemned Russia's role in the conflict, saying that Moscow's military actions "run counter to international law and are an act of aggression."

www.iht.com...
Spain: Nothing.
Germany:

The number two at the German foreign ministry on Saturday said Georgia is breaking international law by launching military action to reclaim South Ossetia.

www.spacewar.com...
Germans tried to propose new peace plan on July 20th and it failed. Two weeks later - war.
Italy:

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini warned against the formation of an "anti-Russian" coalition over the conflict in South Ossetia, in comments published by La Stampa newspaper.

afp.google.com...

So in EU there are different interests, some are anti-Russian and some pro or neutral.
Now former USSRs:
Belorussia: Nothing on first two pages of Google.
Kazakhstan: Stand for political solution.
www.inform.kz...
Armenia:

Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan calls on the Armenian people for vigilance due to the Georgian-Ossetian conflict.

www.today.az...
Azerbaijan:

Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity of Georgia and the conflict should be settled on the basis of this very principle, said spokesman for Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Khazar Ibrahim, commenting on the hostilities in the South Ossetian region of Georgia.

www.today.az...
I am not checking those that are surely anti-Russian. Nobody seems to support actions of Russian leaders. And they understand the situation better then me. At least they should.

Originally posted by asen_y2k
Niet...Saakasvilli also confirmed tank attack on Gori but stated that they REPELLED the attack on Gori.

Do you believe him? Do you seriously think they could repel a Russian full-force attack backed by artillery and air cover?

...

This is unbelievable.


Russia has occupied Georgia proper. If this isn't an act of all out war on the nation of Georgia then what is.

I can't believe how little stock people are putting into this, every advance yields another excuse and people are just lapping it up.


Okay they've invaded Georgian borders...but its okay its only South Ossetia.

Okay so they're bombing Georgia proper...but its okay as its not a ground occupation.

Okay so they've occupied a town in Georgia proper...but its okay because they are only trying to dampen Georgia's ability to conduct strikes in contested territory.


What next?

Okay so they've occupied Tblisi with armour and executed the president...but its okay because they said please?

I mean WTF its rediculous how much Russia is being allowed to get away with.

Originally posted by ArMaP
According to France24, the French foreign minister has already arrived in Moscow with the cease-fire agreement.

And it's sad that's he's making a clown of himself, by ferrying a paper which stipulates that Russians leave the area... He doesn't believe it will work...

reply to post by maloy


Have you heard that Russia are refusing to deal with the 'war criminal Georgian President,' Maloy?

BREAKING (FROM SKY TV) - REUTERS: Russian troops battling Georgian forces in town of Gori.

If the Russians have taken Senaki, my reading of the map seems to indicated that that is closer to the Black Sea. Could this have anything to do with this city coming under attack?
Also, where exactly are the oil pipelines? Near this area? Anyone have a map of the pipeline?

Obs out

reply to post by chips


Declining to comment is the only thing he could do. he isnt going to say yes or no whether he is contemplating that kind of response or not. My thoughts at this moment in time, is that president Bush is too busy with his own thoughts on Iran.

Originally posted by maloy

Originally posted by asen_y2k
Niet...Saakasvilli also confirmed tank attack on Gori but stated that they REPELLED the attack on Gori.

Do you believe him? Do you seriously think they could repel a Russian full-force attack backed by artillery and air cover?

You maybe correct. Saakasvilli has been proved to be lying in more than one circumstance. But at this stage we can believe NO ONE. And its Georgian homeland. They will muster up ALL their forces to defend their land. If they are passionate i think they can repelled a attack where the Russians underestimated them. But at this stage its all speculation.

reply to post by observer

pipline map

Originally posted by chips
reply to post by maloy

 

Have you heard that Russia are refusing to deal with the 'war criminal Georgian President,' Maloy?

BREAKING (FROM SKY TV) - REUTERS: Russian troops battling Georgian forces in town of Gori.

Zugdidi, Senaki, now Gori, Maloy my predictions look correct...

reply to post by I3LiP


We aren't letting Russia "get away" with anything. We have no power to stop them. All we can do is discuss it on a message board. It's just that I want to remain optimistic, and hope against hope that Russia isn't planning to go that far.

That said, maloy, while you make good points and I agree with you largely, we have to remember the American strategy during the invasion of Iraq. Military strongholds were hit first, in rapid succession, almost entirely ignoring other cities. It's what allows the occupation to take hold so rapidly and with such startling efficiency (until the post-major-operations phase, which obviously has been anything but efficient to say the least.) Might Russia take a page out of Rumsfeld's book to make a point?

I very, very much doubt that, and I agree with you that Russia is likely just trying to weaken the Georgian administration's hold on power. I'm just putting the possibility, however slight, out there. I personally want to believe this will all be over within a day or two and cease-fire will be signed and ratified by both sides.

reply to post by rixhell


forgot the link

www.speroforum.com...

reply to post by rixhell


Russia are in battle with georian forces in gori.. Sky news..

MORE UPDATES:


In addition to Chechen-federal Russian battalion of Vostok, another Chechen battalion Zapad is now in the conflict zone.

lenta.ru...

Zapad is a more professional and disciplined Chechen battalion composed of highly trained ethnical Chechen special forces - loyal to the Russian military. I have speculated about this battlion 12 hours ago, and now it appears that it is indeed in the region.

You are looking at perhaps the most well-trained and veteran force in the conflict region right now. Zapad is the "heavy hitter" of the Caucasus.

But this begs the question - if all of two principal Chechen militia battalions are in S. Ossetia - who is providing stability in Chechenya. Sounds like a good time for Chechen rebels to attack.





Further news - Russian military has announced in tele-conference that Russian army death toll is now at 18 dead, 14 missing.


That compares to over 200 Georgian soldiers dead. For the first time in recent history Russian losses seem to be very minor compared with opposition. Could this be the new more careful Russian strategy compared to the Chechen wars?

France24 is saying that Gori is being evacuated, even by Georgian military, they are even getting rides in civilian cars to get out of town.

The reported said that there was only a rumour that the Russians were coming but he could not confirm that, he could only see and hear explosion, while he was evacuating Gori a tank exploded beside him.

[edit on 11/8/2008 by ArMaP]

Originally posted by chips

Have you heard that Russia are refusing to deal with the 'war criminal Georgian President,' Maloy?

Yep. It was all over Russian news 12 hours ago. Russia will not negotiate directly with Saakashvilli - only possibly through a mediator (Sarkozy?).

Originally posted by asen_y2k

Originally posted by chips
reply to post by maloy

 

Have you heard that Russia are refusing to deal with the 'war criminal Georgian President,' Maloy?

BREAKING (FROM SKY TV) - REUTERS: Russian troops battling Georgian forces in town of Gori.

Zugdidi, Senaki, now Gori, Maloy my predictions look correct...

Now we should see if its true as there are sky reporters in Gori.They must show live reports if this is true,If not why not?.Got to make you wonder.
I think the BBC are there too.

reply to post by AceWombat04

We aren't letting Russia "get away" with anything. We have no power to stop them. All we can do is discuss it on a message board. It's just that I want to remain optimistic, and hope against hope that Russia isn't planning to go that far.

But at what point do we wake up and begin to realise that Russia is way out of line here. I refer to letting them 'get away' with it as the community here doesn't seem to be particularly outraged with Russian actions in the region.