Mauna Loa CO2 trend goes negative first time in history (January to July)

Just happened across this. If the graphs are bug-free then it would appear to be something worth observing. Interesting considering how cold it has been this year. It's August here in Florida and hardly even break a sweat outside.

This should rouse some rabble:


He has tons of analysis:
wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com...

What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.

Discuss.



[edit on 5-8-2008 by IgnoranceIsntBlisss]

reply to post by IgnoranceIsntBlisss


Nice graph

Am I right in assuming that you are suggesting that any suggestion of climate change should be linked directly to the CO2 output of Mauna Loa? That seems to be what should be inferred from your suggestion that the trend line has decreased from last month and it is not as warm as you might expect in Florida.

Personal singular experience, such as Florida not being as warm as you think it should be at this time of year, can never prove anything. The existence of climate change or otherwise is not demonstrated by one off events.

The graph itself hasn't shown anything remarkable in this last month. The trend in each previous cycle has been for an increase from a minimum value to a possible small plateau region, where the rate of increase is smaller, and then an increased rate of CO2 rise till it reaches a peak and the a quite sharp drop in CO2 ouput. This is being repeated again. The mean trend, which is what the black line shows I presume, has a number of oscillations in it and this is just one of those, until there is more info from which a change can be shown. Also the CO2 level at Mauna Loa is greater now than at almost anytime between 2004 and 2008.

Now I could be wrong and you don't actually mean to comment on climate change, or infer any link between Mauna Loa and climate events around the globe, and if so then just ignore those comments

Unfortunately, I don't see anything unusual in the graph. Maybe if over the next 4-5 months the graph continues to drop and the minimum value either doesn't appear or is as low as 2008 minimum then that would be something to look at. At the moment the graph is continuing to do what it has been doing since 2004.

As a side issue it may be interesting to see what has happened historically to the CO2 levels before and after eruptions. Is there an increase in CO2 levels before an increase which might point to an imminent eruption? I have no idea as I am not a geologist

Originally posted by Iggus
Am I right in assuming that you are suggesting that any suggestion of climate change should be linked directly to the CO2 output of Mauna Loa?

Climate change is too often directly linked to CO2, and for once, in Mauna Loa, at least, its taking a negative trend this year.

That seems to be what should be inferred from your suggestion that the trend line has decreased from last month and it is not as warm as you might expect in Florida. Personal singular experience, such as Florida not being as warm as you think it should be at this time of year, can never prove anything. The existence of climate change or otherwise is not demonstrated by one off events.

Its not just here, or this time of year. Its been all year; here, and in places like Arizona and Michigan where I have friends. And those are places I can directly call people first hand. For here its been all year. The only year in my 7 years here where in May I could confortably leave all the windows open all day and night. The only year where all summer it hasnt maintained a seemingly perpetual state of 90+degrees. The only August where its not already 90+ degrees at 6:30AM before the sun even comes up. This is the first time in my experience that theres no telling if it will be HOT, or moderately decent from day to day. All year. And I've been getting similar stories et al as mentioned.

The graph itself hasn't shown anything remarkable in this last month.

Apparently you didn't look beyond the graph. Admittedly, I too didn't read every last drop (LATE) last night, but there's tons of other data including:

2007 1 2007.042 382.94
2007 2 2007.125 383.86
2007 3 2007.208 384.49
2007 4 2007.292 386.37
2007 5 2007.375 386.54
2007 6 2007.458 385.98
2007 7 2007.542 384.35
2007 8 2007.625 381.85
2007 9 2007.708 380.74
2007 10 2007.792 381.15
2007 11 2007.875 382.38
2007 12 2007.958 383.94
2008 1 2008.042 385.35
2008 2 2008.125 385.7
2008 3 2008.208 385.92
2008 4 2008.292 387.21
2008 5 2008.375 388.48
2008 6 2008.458 387.99
2008 7 2008.542 384.93

Observe the months of Janurary & July. Are you saying thats a positive trend? How about this analysis from that link:

Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.

But, as I said, I too missed some details in there last night, mainly the global trends... but that data hasn't updated since April so I guess we can only go so far with solid understanding:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.

Now I could be wrong and you don't actually mean to comment on climate change, or infer any link between Mauna Loa and climate events around the globe, and if so then just ignore those comments

So are these comments on that blog incorrect:

We have:
1. Measured lower ocean temps,
2. stagnating sea level rise,
3. sudden global atmospheric temperature drop,
4. stagnating CO2 levels.

Or the authors following comment:

“It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months”

Or this:



I'm hoping you can find me some better temp graphs. Its been about a year since I've looked for this sort of stuff.

As a side issue it may be interesting to see what has happened historically to the CO2 levels before and after eruptions. Is there an increase in CO2 levels before an increase which might point to an imminent eruption? I have no idea as I am not a geologist

Is there some volcanic activity I'm not aware of? Or is it red herring activity?

[edit on 5-8-2008 by IgnoranceIsntBlisss]

One thing for sure is that the Earth is a dynamic planet and just about everything goes up and down and thereby affects other things to go up and down. I doubt you will find your evidence to dubunk global warming in one reading over half a year on a remote group of volcanic islands in the Pacific Ocean.

Global warming is a piece of climate change.

Temperatures go up - ice melts - more water evaporates into clouds(?).

clouds reflect light back into space. Earth cools. Snow falls again. Albedo affect returns ..............

shameless plug: Global Dimming documentary on PBS tonight.

let's see in a year, i would of course love to see a few AGWers eat their own words if CO2 slumped from now on, what a hilarious thought. hopefully, they won't misplace or fudge their data, like they've been caught doing before:


www.abovetopsecret.com...


i'm looking forward to the results, but for now the data remains inconclusive.

[edit on 2008.8.5 by Long Lance]

so, what's the trend now?

roughly a year later....


www.esrl.noaa.gov...




but keep in mind that


One day later: Mauna Loa CO2 graph changes (Aug 2008)

same story, different source

[edit on 2009.7.21 by Long Lance]