An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

When you live in the epicenter of an earthquake swarm, as damntheptb and I do, and all the "experts" and seismologists can tell you nothing except "Well, these quakes could stop as suddenly as they began, or they might be precursors of a larger earthquake."-- you start looking for answers on your own. Which is what led us to co-author this thread laying out what we've discovered, and also to keep track of the Reno earthquake swarm, as well as our own personal observations as they pertain to the various earthquake prediction methods we've been researching. Our objective in exploring various methods of earthquake prediction is simply to be more aware, and if lucky, forewarned. And by forewarned, we mean prepared-- not panicking and putting our homes on the market.

As it turns out, there are many "alternative" techniques being used, usually in combination, to predict earthquakes.

One intriguing method is geosensology: the study of senses and biological systems as it relates to geologic dynamics or events. What led damntheptb and I to research this particular alternative method of earthquake prediction is that while comparing notes in e-mail, we noticed similar physical precursors to the larger EQ's here in the Reno area. It can be said that Charlotte King is the most well-known pioneer of this method of earthquake prediction. Put simply, while living in the Pacific Northwest, Charlotte began to notice specific physical affects, like headaches, would precede earthquakes and volcanic events. In time, by keeping track of these biological precursors, she was able to fairly accurately predict these geologic events. She says that many people are earthquake sensitive, some more than others, but many people simply don't make the connection. According to Charlotte, earthquake sensitives worldwide, will experience "the same physical symptoms, at the same time, in the same part of their body".

Please visit her website linked below to review the extensive scientific and medical research Charlotte has submitted to in order to better understand this process she experiences. On her Earthquake Alert Page, you can read how she describes her physical symptoms and correlates them to various regions.

The Charlotte King Effect

Other links on biological earthquake prediction.

Aches to Quakes - Sensitives Who Predict Earthquakes Suffer Pain and Ridicule
Earthquake Prediction

Another "alternative" method of earthquake prediction is the study of animal behavior. As you may recall, after the tsunami receded, it was noted that no dead animals were found. That was because, the locals explained, they sensed the impending wave and fled to higher ground.

Extensive research on animal behavior preceding geologic events has been done in China.

WILD ANIMALS: Animals vacate areas, gather in groups, or enter into human habitated areas prior to incidents. Wild animals that normally avoid humans will come in close contact with them, sometimes entering into dwellings or barns; Fishing improves in the local area. Zoo and oceanarium animals will try to escape, refuse to be confined and more! Remember, behavioral changes can occur for a variety of other reasons. CATS: Cats will be jumpy. You may see warning signs such as hiding, running
around frantically trying to escape to the outside, hanging on screens and meowing, or behavior unusual for your pet. Many times they will be aggressive, or will want to stick close to or be on top of you. Pacing, hissing, or growling can also be symptoms. Most cats will hide, so check their favorite hiding places and behind cupboards, refrigerators, sofas, beds, in closets, in the backs of washers and dryers, and on top of cupboards, shelves and behind the water heater. Check small spaces in the backs of any appliance since they will often seek out dark and small areas.
DOGS: Dogs will usually not hide. Behavior exhibited before quake activity
includes howling, whining, barking, restlessness, aggression, and increased devotion to owners. They will usually run around, and can bolt through gates, windows, or doors, or stick to you like glue. Some dogs will become more protective or aggressive while others will be fearful or act dejected. Pay attention to their personalities and individual needs and you will be able to avoid trouble. Drastic differences in the number of advertised lost dogs and the animal shelter loads can precede quake activity in a specific area. Large increases in these numbers could give you a clue to up coming earth activity.
HORSES AND LIVESTOCK: Hoofed animals often refuse to enter their barns or pens and often refuse to tie. They tend to group together in open areas, act nervous, or pace.
OTHER ANIMALS: Caged birds will often hang on their cage, sometimes they
will flap frantically, or they can be abnormally quiet. Breeding birds will often
abandon their eggs or discard them from the nest. Other animals will exhibit
abnormal behavior. Some of the unusual changes are that; Hibernating animals will emerge early (snakes , bears, etc.); Spiders and ants will move indoors; Rodents will invade the house or if they are in residence will disappear; Wild birds become quiet or are not visible;
WILD ANIMALS: Animals vacate areas, gather in groups, or enter into human habitated areas prior to incidents. Wild animals that normally avoid humans will come in close contact with them, sometimes entering into dwellings or barns; Fishing improves in the local area. Zoo and oceanarium animals will try to escape, refuse to be confined and more! Remember, behavioral changes can occur for a variety of other reasons.

Seismic Sentries Animal Disaster Predictions: Expert Comments

It was in the early evening hours of February 4, 1975, when an earthquake of magnitude 7.3 struck the densely populated town of Heicheng, in the Liaoning Province, in northeast China. As expected, because the magnitude was great and the area highly populated, damage to Haicheng and to neighboring towns was extensive. However, what was different about this earthquake is that very few lives were lost. The reason for this was that the occurrence of this earthquake had been successfully predicted.

The prediction was based on a number of geophysical observations of precursor events as well as abnormal animal behavior. In the town of Heicheng, before the earthquake, wolves were seen running around in packs, dogs were barking unusually, and sparrows were flying around wildly. The most unusual circumstance of animal behavior was that of snakes that came out of hibernation and froze on the surface in the snow.

See these links for more information on these events and the study of animal behavior.

Earthquake Prediction in China - Monitoring Animal Behavior - by Dr George Pararas Carayannis
Earthquake Predictors on Yahoo! Pets

Many people also study the behavior of ants as well. Personally, I noticed ants swarming in my back yard the day before our last 3.8 magnitude earthquake and we will be keeping an eye on their behavior.

Another method used is the study of cloud formations, commonly referred to as earthquake clouds.

'Earthquake Clouds'- For years, considered a mystery to science with an unknown form of genesis, strange cloud formations have been thought to precede earthquakes. Even ancient Chinese and Italians were aware of unique clouds that gave sign preceding large earthquakes. Sudden formation of long 'snakes' in the sky, where prior was clear and blue, where the deep earth warns in the sky above - how can this be? Modern science of earthquake genesis, called 'brittle fracture theory', is sudden fracture of a fault. Yet these clouds form days before earthquakes. How?

See this link for more information and photographs.

Unlocking the mystery of 'Earthquake Clouds' - how
they form & why - Are they accurate in prediction?

I've taken a few photographs myself of strange cloud formations in the skies above northwest Reno, and will put them up on this thread in the near future.

At the risk of including too much information, in closing we'll include one last link that lists a number of earthquake prediction methods.

earthquake prediction-meteoquake
CLOUD FORMATION ON THE FAULT LINES

Electromagnetic effects caused by earthquakes and explosions

Ground Water Levels

Chemical Changes in Ground Water

Radon Gas in Ground Water Wells

Tilt Precusors

VLF Background Noise

Thermal Anamoly

It seems that many alternative methods of predicting earthquakes are used in combination, with some success.

The main point of our thread here, is not to vouch for the effectiveness of various methods of alternative earthquake prediction.

Our objective here is to outline a few of these unconventional methods of earthquake prediction and log our own personal observations here as well, more or less as an on-going experiment, since we both live practically on the epicenter of the Reno earthquake swarm. As we noted, it's not like the scientists have much to offer us in the way of answers, so what have we got to lose?




[edit: fixed links]

[edit on 21-5-2008 by 12m8keall2c]

I have noticed that before the larger quakes we have had here in reno, that a large colony of ants were coming out of the ground in front of my house... It was a raised mound(crack), and they were very aggressive and seemingly scattering around in no apparent order. after the quakes hit, the ants went back underground, until that last 3.8 we had, and they came out of the same section of dirt.

here is a link about precursor events involving micro-tremors...(just like mogul)
www.lbl.gov...

From here on in, damntheptb and I will be checking in on this thread daily to make note of any unusual events we're noticing.

In the past, before the two larger magnitude EQ's here, I noticed my dogs either being sick, always in the morning, and/or eating grass. They seem to be eating grass a lot lately. Which is interesting since a main symptom for our area is an unexplained stomach ache.

And in the days before those two larger EQ's, I also corralled three lost dogs in my neighborhood alone in one day. I saw two pairs of dogs running loose in different areas on different days. Sure, you'll see a stray dog now and then, but not this many in a couple days, and I've never seen dogs running together before.

Wednesday, May 13, 2008

Today, so far, both ant hills in my back yard seem normal. As for my dogs, they are napping as usual. As for me, I have a slight headache behind the eyes, but not in either temple, most probably from working with damntheptb all morning e-mailing back and forth as we prepared this thread.

For me, the most noticeable reaction before an EQ of magnitude 3.0 or greater is that I will not be able to sleep, no matter how tired I am. Usually this is accompanied by anxiety/restlessness, a headache and a sense of waiting for something to happen.

Here is the current USGS recent activity map for our area.

quake.usgs.gov...

Comments are welcome; this isn't just our public log. If there are any others living in proximity to this EQ swarm, please add your comments as well.

Edit to add fixed link from original post: Charlotte King website
www.viser.net...

[edit on 5/14/08 by kattraxx]

Another thing we have noticed at least in our area is the increased static electricity. Before the swarms started in mid feb., static electricity was normal, if I dragged my feet, I would shock someone, but since the quakes have started, I get shocked getting out of my car (only around home) in the epicenter areas ( I live less than 2 miles from most), and the shocks i get and give my family are definitly more than before.. they were an annoyence before, but now they are more powerful. My jacket peels off me like a dryer without sryer sheet at home, but when i go to work, it clides off normally.. I cant even drag my feet here at work to get a spark, but at home I cannot "not" produce sparks.
My neighbors have noticed this also, but they are not sure when they started to notice it.
A lot of this might sem "out there", but being exposed for a duration like this has allowed us to notice things that would otherwise be "un-noticed"

quake.usgs.gov...

All this morning the warming pain sensation in my lower back (kidney area) was consistant, like yesterday, and it ended sometime after 12 pm and now 1:20, and when i checked the site, there was a 2.9 at 11:52

the pain is still there, but no warming... kinda like sleeping on it wrong, and like I lifted something wrong, with a touch of warmth. twice in 2 days I noticed and kept rack of times when it got hotter and stopped, and twice had small quakes within the time frames I noted.

the area of pain I feel is associated with the WELLS area... haven't checked them of late, been focussing on our immediate area



[edit on 14-5-2008 by damntheptb]

Good luck you 2, I hope to see some good results on here *Starred and Flagged*

-Kdial1

reply to post by damntheptb


I can't recall the dates now, but both my bf and I had short sharp left kidney pains in the past month.








[edit on 5/14/08 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kdial1
Good luck you 2, I hope to see some good results on here *Starred and Flagged*
-Kdial1

We're amateurs to be sure, but we figure it's worth a shot.

And hopefully, it will encourage others to be more aware of various unexplained events, animal behavior and/or aches and pains-- and I hope they post them here. You never know, you might hit one.

But mostly, damntheptb and I will be looking for Sierra symptoms and precursors.



[edit on 5/14/08 by kattraxx]

quake.usgs.gov...

3.4 Tempiute, NV 3:05 pm

Very well done Op. I have symptoms that range from extreme sleepiness (rare for me) to arthritis flare up on my knees and headache which does not go away w/ conventional med's.
Yet the biggest thing is that I have this deal where I shake, or vibrate is more like it and the longer and stronger I vibrate the bigger the magnitude. Strange I know but I go by it.
I have always trusted nature more than man, I do keep an eye on the animals. If you tune into the sounds of the birds in your area, they can always warn eachother and this is how many animals know when to leave an area.

reply to post by antar


Have you noticed any correlation when you feel vibrations to earthquakes in water, ie., oceans?

You are welcome to log your aches and observations here. Perhaps a pattern will emerge. I believe most symptoms occur 12 to 72 hours before an EQ, but generally 12 to 24 hours.

Good idea for a thread!

I had already heard about all of those alternative methods, and all of them have some thing that may explain the relation to earthquakes.

Animals like dogs can ear sounds that we can not, so maybe they ear sounds that signal the approaching earthquake.

Ants, living inside the Earth and being very sensitive animals can probably also feel slight tremors or other things, maybe chemical alterations on the ground.

As for humans, I think that the biggest problem is not that we can not feel those things but that we do not notice them, so I think that trying to find a connection between what people feel and, in this case, earthquakes is a good idea.

The static electricity, for example may be the result of piezoelectric activity, I wouldn't be surprised if in the future they found changes in the electric fields before an earthquake.

In my case, I have only witnessed 4 or 5 earthquakes, the biggest a 6.3 in 1969. In that occasion I was sleeping and I did not noticed anything (I was 6 years old then).

The last two were last year, one while I was eating my lunch, the other while I was working. Before and during the first, one of the things I noticed was that my cat acted as if nothing was happening. I did not felt anything special in either occasion, before, during or after.

So, maybe influenced by the fact that I live in an area with few earthquakes (but an area that had the biggest earthquake in Europe, almost a 9 in the Richter scale), neither I or anyone of the people I know (and not even animals) have shown evidences of being affected by anything before an earthquake.

But, as someone that likes geology (and other nature related subjects), I will keep an eye on this thread.

PS: Good luck.

May 15. 6:44 a.m.

We just had a pretty good tremor. About 30 seconds before, my older dog went outside and was sick; the other followed her and was eating grass at the edge of the patio.

Last night, again, I kept waking up every 3 hours or so, and at 1 a.m. noticed I had a slight headache, took an aspirin and went back to bed. When I get up and check USGS, I can pretty much see the tremors during the night that woke me up.

Waiting for this tremor to come up on the USGS page... so far they've got a 1.1 at 6:40. It was 6:44 a.m. when I looked at my computer. Again, felt like more than a 1.1. Yesterday USGS had a 2.9 at 11:52 and I didn't feel a thing. Go figure.

Still have that slight headache.

Just had a call from a friend who lives nearby; she guessed 2.7 which is my ball park.

Ok, here it is now. 3.2 more like it.

quake.usgs.gov...


[edit on 5/15/08 by kattraxx]

Starred and flagged, Folks

Some interesting and new ideas you have with regard to detecting and studying these events...

And the best part, as opposed to the usual "scientific" bunk with this stuff, your ideas actually are logical and make a hella lot of sense

Good luck on it and hope you get the info and results you are after....Actually, I'm pretty sure you'll get those...

After that, the next step is presenting what you've discovered to others outside people like us who know what you're saying is spot on

Some how, after a while, I reckon you will get some "mainstream" type folks on line with this...

As I said, a lot of common sense together with what others have experienced when it comes to quakes in the past

All the very best and be well

Peace

Well the quake we felt this morning was a little odd... When it hit it felt different, and when it ended, a half full bottle of windex was sloshing back and forth, violently.... it caught my attention, as it felt back and forth, not back and forth, front and back like most all others i felt.

Immediatly before the quake, I went to fill my dogs water and he had curled up all the carpet pieces into a pile with a hollow center and was cowering inside.. I thought i woke him from the start of a nap, but as soon as i went inside, the shaking started...

All last night I was restless, and it is very unusual for me (especially after all the sleepless nights), and today i have no pain in lower left back (but i still kinda think it was from sleeping or lifting... not sure yet)

THURSDAY MAY 15TH 9:36AM

I wanted to mention also that today, my wife has really been feeling "out of sorts" (which is an accurate but odd description), today, and i feel it also, its hard to concentrate today..... I actually got a good night sleep, so I am not tired, and the last time she felt this way was the day before the 4.7, so I will keep a good eye, on near future events... I hope we are wrong... the shake this morning just felt OMINOUS, and I can't shake the feeling that something will happen today...

need to go check the ants...

I will say right now that I expect another EQ within the next 12 to 24 hours (on this Verdi/Mogul fault). I still have that headache, but more importantly, anxiety increasing. There's also a sense of pressure in my head; difficult to explain. Stomach doesn't feel right either, yet I haven't eaten yet. The dogs are anxious as well, not getting along, kind of snarly w/each other.

We'll see.

Edit to add: just noticed your post, damntheptb and I checked the ants-- not one in sight. I'm just now noticing the pain in the left kidney area again as well.

Wherever you are, take care, my friend.

USGS upgraded this a.m.'s EQ to 3.4

[edit on 5/15/08 by kattraxx]

I remember seeing a show on the National Geographic channel that dealt with predicting earthquakes and there was an older scientist from CA that supposedly had successfully predicted several large quakes there by using a combination of lunar cycles and scanning the missing pet classifieds in various city papers. He said that there are normally 5-10 missing pet ads in the paper in San Franciso and, the day of the 1989 quake there, there were like 70. Based on this he predicted a significant quake in the next couple of days and it happened that night.

When the 5.2 happened in IL last month, one of my cats woke me up in the middle of the night howling and hiding behind my bed. I had just started to cuss it out for waking me up at 5:30am when the quake hit. In retrospect, assuming it woke me up immediately with the howling, it would have given me 5-10 seconds before the shaking started to get out of my building.

reply to post by Necrosis


That scientist is Jim Berkland. His website is syzygyjob.com. Used to be with USGS, but let go for insisting on an EQ warming before the 7.2 Loma Prieta EQ.

I'm going to put my tent back up outside. No way I'm sleeping inside tonight.

Anyone in Reno, don't wish to be an alarmist, but be prepared.

Now I can add dizzy spells to the list. Speaking to my mother on the phone, she mentioned those as well. And I feel like I'm trembling. Haven't had coffee since 6 a.m. Weird. Just took an Alka-Seltzer for the headache; and my stomach, feels awful. Dogs are both following me everywhere. Hard to say what behavior is from this morning's 3.4 or precursor behavior.