The Second Depression

I just had a strange idea come to me, very clearly. It may be prophetic, or not. I thought I would share it with my friends here at ATS. (Sorry – it is a not a pleasant thought.)

Before the Second World War, the First World War was known simply as “The Great War.”

Before the Second US Depression, the First US Depression was known simply as “The Great Depression.”

My disturbing idea: one day, the "Great Depression" will be referred to as "The First Depression".

There is no doubt about that in my mind.

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What was worse? The First or Second World War? Both were mind-blowing bad. We don’t really remember. We have no concept.

The Great Depression – it was also mind-blowing bad. We don’t remember that either. It is something we see, buffered by time, in a very detached way.

The future and the past are parallel.

When the Second US Depression arrives in full force – what will that be like? Can we really conceive of how it will affect our posterity and us?

It won't matter .. if WWIII breaks out, you won't care as you'll be worried about not getting radiation cancer or looking for your next meal.

reply to post by jetxnet

Yeah. You are right, Jetxnet. For sure.

Note that the Second World War followed the First Depression. The Third World War will follow the Second Depression. Then, humanity (what is left of it) will be taking a long break for about 200 or more years.

My sad prediction -- nothing new here. But for some reason, this seems very palpable right now.

I hear ya. I saw something coming since before 2000. I remember arguing with a friend at the time saying that in 5 to 10 years China would have Nuclear Submarines and that we, mostly the US citizens, will have paid for it through Walmart and the increasing trade-imbalance.

He didn't believe it, now look, China has four new 094 class Nuclear Submarines, each capable of holding 12 Nuclear warheads. That's 48 Nukes across just 4 Submarines.

We built another Russia or Communist Juggarnaut. It was bad enough going through 40 years or so of the Cold War. China is more stubborn than Russia ever was. They threatened to turn Los Angeles into glass in 1996, if Clintion didn't call of an aircraft carrier he sent over as warning to them. It was a warning because China fired missles that landed just short of Taiwans shores during their democratic election.

So what does Clinton do? He gives orders for the carrier group to get out of there. Some balls he had lol. Not good. You show fear to them, it only gets worse.

I'm so certain that a second Depression is coming that my family and I are planning to return to our rural roots. We don't want to live in some sort of twisted compound but we believe that living very near family in a Northern farming community will allow us to better survive the tragic adjustment that is almost certain to take place in the next few years. I think that WWIII could be a series of civil wars and/or food riots that follow the economic crisis. I fear that there is no turning back now. So we can blame NAFTA or the Euro or this party or that party...ultimately it doesn't matter. We just have to prepare for the situation. If a truck was about to run over me I wouldn't concern myself with whether it was a Ford, a Chevy or a Dodge...rather I would busy myself with getting out of the way. Thoughts ?

Originally posted by Fivewords
Living very near family in a Northern farming community will allow us to better survive the tragic adjustment that is almost certain to take place in the next few years. I think that WWIII could be a series of civil wars and/or food riots that follow the economic crisis. Thoughts ?

It sounds like you might have a very good quality of life ahead of you. I think you are making a smart move, insulating yourself and your family.

During the Great Depression, there was 25% unemployment. Those that found work also suffered, working at miserable wages. Banks collapsed. Savings were obliterated. Productivity was halted. And the cause was really psychological in many ways -- as if there was some permanent hysteria that kept the situation locked into place.

It required some other type of hysteria to shake things loose -- that would be WWII -- pre-atomic warfare.

I know I'm going to get flack from economists when I say this -- we are still living in a bubble created by WWII. The threat of nuclear warfare has kept us energized to make society move forward. It is all a very temporary situation that defies the natural order of things. To get us out of this upcoming depression will require another war. But now we have nuclear weapons. It will be a different ending.

And what is the natural order? Probably living on a farm, close to family, and being self-sufficient as much as possible. Your plan sounds good to me.

Good luck and keep us posted

Originally posted by jetxnet
So what does Clinton do? He gives orders for the carrier group to get out of there. Some balls he had lol. Not good. You show fear to them, it only gets worse.

I can't argue. Clinton was an idiot and an egotist. I don't think he deserves the credit for economic recovery. He probably deserves some of the blame for the current economic collapse. Presidents set things in motion that last for dozens of years. Maybe dozens of decades. We are all just pawns -- no need to say more.

I once read an article about a guy who prepared for Y2K as his Wife made fun of him and complained about the money he was spending on storable foods, equipment, etc. When it didn't turn out as he'd predicted he had to hear about it. Then when 911 happened his Wife eased up on her teasing but still thought he'd gone over the top as they lived in a rural community far from the target areas. Sometime later, when Katrina hit thier home leaving them stranded for several days she thought he was the best Husband ever. It never hurts to be prepared.

The Great Depression happened to a very different world. The realities of American day-to-day life for the average person was nothing like the prosperity we enjoy today. They were much poorer and had a much lower quality of life, but that was the status quo of the time. The vast majority believe, regarding almost any catastrophe, that it "can't happen to them". And then it does. For us, I believe the majority of people will genuinely believe that nobody ever saw it coming, that there were supposed to be safeguards in place, that the government will come to the rescue, and so on. Look how that thinking turned out for the victims of 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, and other well-known catastrophes. Additionally think of all the stories you've heard over your lifetime about the devastation of wildfires, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, riots, and so on. If anything is clear, it is that
1) such things can happen to YOU
2) safeguards routinely fail, if there any at all
3) the cavalry rides in far, far too late, if ever
and 4) arrogance, in the form of disbelief of one's own peril, is endemic these days

We have more to lose than they did and are less prepared to deal with the consequences. In the 20s and 30s, the average American had not felt the benefits of industrialization, much of the population was still rural and suburban, without the technological benefits of the day. Major self-sufficiency was the reality of life for most Americans.

I see the makings of a major collapse unfolding before our eyes:
The markets are already in recession, the major investment banks are relying on "injections" of capital from the Fed. Average Americans are tightening their belts, the job market is drying up, investment capital is down, food shortages are expanding around the globe, the economic class discrepancy is growing in the industrialized world, the US has lost its supreme superpower status in the eyes of much of the world. China and India are touted as economic miracles, fast-tracked to prosperity, they were mismanaged at home and abroad, leaving us with barely an ounce of manufacturing and a wildly disproportional import/export ratio. Much of China and India still live well within dire straights, as do many Americans. We also have the bankrupting of Social Security and Medicare, the struggle to support our aging population, the global warming fiasco, the truly enormous federal debt, the devaluation of the dollar, an endless money-pit war, and soaring commodities prices. I am not an economics guru, but if you ask me, America is on the fast-track to a the Greater Depression.

We cannot "grow" our way out of it as we have in the past. We, evidently cannot count on the Fed to help, nor the current administration. I don't believe the next will be much better. The impact of a collapse would trump that of the first Depression. The government, deep in the pockets of the corporations, would not help even if it could. I am certain such an event would unfold exactly as Hitler's rise to power. Americans would permit untold further transgressions against freedom and liberty, billed as a plan to rebuild and revitalize the economy.

Personally, I'm making preparations to leave America before the crash, for political, social, and economic reasons. I applaud Fivewords for taking precautionary measures, as these days nearly everyone is so apathetic toward their quality of life.

reply to post by EtSolveMundi



Ehh, bravo, but what about those who are not able to leave?

Also, I heard of war here in the states and worldwide too.

I heard it from someone a few years back but ehh, what do I know?

[edit on 6-5-2008 by Ihavenoidea]

I think that my concerns are not so much based on an "end of the world as we know it" scenario as they are on more common problems. A great many people in the USA are not prepared for even a simple emergency: a week with no power, a few days without drinking water, a month of food shortage, a weekend of lawlessness, etc. There were riots when MLK was shot. It is reasonable to believe that trucker Reginald Denny didn't think that his day would go the way it did when he went to work that morning. Katrina is a study in helplessness. Every Winter some fool gets stuck in the snow and walks away from his vehicle to his death. A second depression or a WW are, of course, real threats but it wouldn't take something that big to turn America upside down. Fifty years ago the average American teenager was able to actually build things, grow food and work as part of a team. Many of todays teens are exhausted after a long day of text messaging. God forbid they were tasked with cutting firewood or butchering a pig. Many adults aren't much better which is a consequence of careers deciding what color a cereal box should be. I enjoy this computer because it allows me one more way to learn, but without it I'd simply read more books. Many of our fellow citizens react to a broken ipod as if it were shock and awe bombing.

Its been my moto to always expect the most boring scenario as an outcome. Some people say its going to rain death, some say "eh there's a recession and we"re in a crappy war," and some say "nothings wrong." I go middle ground. I see bad things happening for sure, but I do somewhat still trust humanity to do something good soon.

I think we may be facing depression. I think there will be food shortages and a possible large war because of what we have done. We may lose some ground in the world power struggle.

But at the same time, other countries have overstepped their bounds, lost wars, became poor, and still survived with much of the population.

SO bad times? yes.. End days? ehhh we'll see.