Is there anybody out there??

Is there anybody out there? Probably not, according to a scientist from the University of East Anglia. A mathematical model produced by Prof Andrew Watson suggests that the odds of finding new life on other Earth-like planets are low, given the time it has taken for beings such as humans to evolve and the remaining life span of Earth.

Structurally complex and intelligent life evolved late on Earth and it has already been suggested that this process might be governed by a small number of very difficult evolutionary steps.

Prof Watson, from the School of Environmental Sciences, takes this idea further by looking at the probability of each of these critical steps occurring in relation to the life span of Earth, giving an improved mathematical model for the evolution of intelligent life.

Read complete article here

This theory is pretty good and if we look at the life span of Earth and Sun and if we compare the time we had intelligent life on earth with the cosmic level of time then its all in a fraction of seconds.

According to our scientists a planet should be like our Earth and should be at the right distance from its star, it should have gravity, atmosphere, ocean, tides to create life forms, a magnetic field to protect everything and the list goes on. It seems chances of finding an extra terrestrial life form is very less. I may be totally wrong. What you people think?

reply to post by Enceladus


In my own opinion, I think that they have probably been here longer than we have. And the universe is bigger than we probably think that it is. They even admit that they haven't discovered it all. I just think that it is probably hard to believe that we are the only intelligient lifeforms in the universe. Or at the very least the only planet that has life on it. But that is just my opinion I don't have proof or anything. Just what I think.

100 years from now, we'll look back at this period of time and ask "man, they weren't that intelligent..." When we look at science of the 1800s and early 1900s, it looked pretty simplistic compared to today.

Our history is riddled with human bottlenecks, though, so it is thought that some civilizations on earth grew to flourish and then were cut down by sizeable volcanos (ie. Toba) in which most of the human population were wiped out. The formula for long-standing life on other planets probably includes the ability to forcast their own demise and protect against extinction through science. A volcano was bad for cave-dweling farmers since they lived off the land. Today, we would not lose as many people but something like Toba or Yellowstone would still drop the world population below 1 billion.

Anyway - if we're here, then they are "out there". There are billions of suns - billions of galaxies and the laws of physics seem to apply universally. There is no way that we are the only "intelligent" life out there. Heck - dolphins and monkeys are pretty intelligent, so even if a planet has dolphins but cannot run spacecraft - I'd consider that intelligent life.

We're rare but rare when spread over billions upon billions is pretty plentiful.

Seconded !!! We are not the only intelligence in the Universe. Mind you judging by the state of the Planet today i often wonder if we deserve to call ourselves intelligent. We are killing each other and destroying our habitat. Hardly intelligent behaviour

I disagree. I think other life is out there somewhere. The universe is just too big of a place for there not to be more life in it of some kind/form. Now if its intelligent or not is another matter. That I would agree with.
While I do believe life exists (in some form) elsewhere in the universe, I do not believe that we have ever been, or are now being, visited by them.

[edit on 20-4-2008 by green k]

[edit on 20-4-2008 by green k]

[edit on 20-4-2008 by green k]

Originally posted by green k
I disagree. I think other life is out there somewhere. The universe is just too big of a place for there not to be more life in it of some kind/form. Now if its intelligent or not is another matter. That I would agree with.
While I do believe life exists (in some form) elsewhere in the universe, I do not believe that we have ever been, or are now being, visited by them.

Depends on the observer's definition of "intelligence". I often go over other people's observations & opinions (and my own) in my head and think "but that is all based on the observer's experience, perhaps what applies in our life (based on these certain sets of standards) don't apply in other areas of the universe."

Then again, all that matters in the end is the observer's perspective. So what I perceive as reality is all that matters to me. According to my perspective, your perspective (or just refer to it as your "self"), may not exist (depending on how I, the observer, perceives it).

I wonder if any of that makes sense?

Anyway, surely any form of life has "intelligence"? In the sense that it has "evolved" into a state where it is able to continue it's existence.

You see, that's what I don't get. Life. It's a bunch of atoms/molecules/elements/whatever (I'm no scientist) that come together to form this "living" entity that "decides" that it needs to replicate, reproduce and, on some occasions, make conscious decisions to expand it's existence or better it's future.

So yeah, I've gone off on a tangent that may not seem to apply to your reponse (or this thread).

I just don't think that we can settle on this guy's opinion and take it as fact. Then again, that's up to you (the observer).

There has been some discussion surrounding this article and the drake equation in this thread.

I think Dr. Watson has good methodology, however empirical data would suggest we are not alone.

I also disagree with the article. We don't even know how life begins, so we can't really say for sure if it's actually rare or not. Also, we only have the life here on Earth on which to base such calculations. Also still, it seems that there could be tons of "non-intelligent" life out there according to the article. Earth is not the center of the universe though, so I see no reason why life would not exist anywhere else.

It may be a good study based on what we know now, but it's obvious that there are still many things we don't know.

[edit on 20-4-2008 by GrayFox]

I agree that... hello? hello... (blow, blow)... is this thing on?
One-two one-one one-two, one-two... erm (cough)

I think there maybe others like us (I assume you mean
ATS'ers) out there, folk who wanna believe in flying saucers
and secret government agencies. It's just that they're probably too
far out to contact them... but leave your name and number and I'll
get back to you.

Planet Earth is blue and there's nuthin' I can do- a quote from
my welfare place.