Long live the United States and its Economy

While I agree with some of the OP statements I have to add, that the big problems that has created the problems with the markets has not been addressed and is not word of how they will fixed.

Right now all that our Fed has done at the expenses of the American tax payer is to bail out over and over becoming a trend of lowering interest rates and feeding the hungry financial machine.

Guess what we the citizens of this nation that are majority on a credit crunch with mortgages unpaid and losing jobs are the ones that eventually will have to pay for all that bail out as it will add to the growing national debt.

Yes that is a littler something that our government is no telling us about it.

Yes somebody is making a killing with the volatility in the markets but rest assure that is not the regular American citizens.

Look at the markets today, the big rally is dying faster that it has done in previous bail out and interest rate cuts weeks.

This is not a good sign.

Originally posted by kosmicjack
In Economics 101 we learned that it is supposed to be a predictive science - studying the cycles and indicators you are referring to.

Really?

In my economics class we learned (on the first day as a matter of fact) that economics is in no way a science (there were a large number of science majors taking the class as an elective) nor predictive beyond what history can teach. It can only be used to try and explain why things happened the way they did. If it could be used to predict anything accurately then everybody would be rich in the sense of winning a lottery.

Interesting the differences you can get from one school to another.
.

The fed and our government can only patch with band-aid the problem.

Fed's bold moves could have psychological risks

“The menacing beast is not a recession but the credit crisis,” said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “Recessions happen and we'll get through them particularly with the Fed's rate cuts and the government's stimulus (of tax rebates and tax breaks). But without properly functioning credit markets, the economy can't grow. It is like starving a fire of oxygen.”

www.timesrecordnews.com...

Interesting that the rally of he dollar earlier is not helping keep yesterday's euphoria.

reply to post by Gools


Well of course you are right.

I mean simply that the point of economics is to analyze and make assessments and assumptions based on cycles and trends - definitely not 100% accurate when trying to read tea leaves for the future but it's a pretty darn good indicator. And certainly the PTB can control some of the parameters and force multipliers that effect the overall economic health of our system. So why have they failed so miserably? I guess it depends on how you define failed and what was their goal. I doubt it was the same as the average citizen or trader.

The way i see it..... is a lot different than yours,


the 'Liquidity' solution you are touting, is an imagined thing in the long run...

the Fed is putting up up to $700 billion they have previously accumulated (in just US Treasury bills) to finance their member banks --
and Now (since Monday the 17th) with the conditional buy-out of Bears Stearns)...
Every bank and brokerage house is a potential client for a Fed
bail-out ... or buy-out... (can you say Fascist Empire !)


This program, with the Federal Reserve providing 'Liquidity'...
is only a Spin...
What the Fed is actually doing is having the the troubled banks/brokers/mortgage lenders... to ostensibly 'come clean'
with the actual loss & damage they have, (which is not readily visible
to the financial community)---
because these Investment Banks/Financial Houses have Billion$ and Billion$ of ""Level 3"", Toxic paper,
which they do not have to report ...! and which they can keep hidden
...which will undoubedly skew the actual effect on the financial markets




There is absolutely no-way to lay out the onion-skin layers of
manipulations that are in-play



but if you (trader on wallstreet) are satisified with the overall picture,
then go merrily along your way ...


Myself, I see a Fed that is engaged in a devaluation of the Dollar,
and they are sure doing an incredible 'tap dance' as events need attended to

I know some very intelligent people who work on Wall Street, and they don't all agree with you. It sounds to me as though you do not have a grasp of the entire situation, all the fronts of this perfect storm. I'm sure you do know your specific investment area very well though.

Even Citigroup thinks you should not buy their stocks right now...lol:

The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup warns...

Originally posted by kosmicjack
I guess my very elementary problem is this:

In Economics 101 we learned that it is supposed to be a predictive science - studying the cycles and indicators you are referring to. Well if it is inherently predicitve then it is inherently manipulative.

As CT as it might be, I feel that there is an unseen architecture of control at work that is much more adept at reading cycles (or should I say leading cycles?) than the average citizen or trader. If they can predict it then they should have been able to prevent it - if they really wanted to.

TPTB are lookin to kill off the dollar this has been the plan for years to drive the dollar into the ground.

The only thing holding the markets together (if you can call these wild fluctuations, including the run-up today against all sense of sanity) so far is rate cuts, new ways to manipulate the money supply so they can bail out corporate America and FAKE NEWS.

Now, exactly what are they going to do when you can't cut the FFR any further? There's not much left to cut now.

Anyone who looks at what is going on right now and thinks everything is just peachy, and/or you can look at history to reassure yourself when we are in TOTALLY uncharted territory.....

Nevermind, enjoy it while you can.

reply to post by traderonwallst


If you really are a trader on wall street, then you must know that we are in an unpredecented situation vis-a-vis the volatility indexes of the market.

Check out:

1. Volatility index of Lehman brothers stock in the last 5 days. It went up by 5% in 5 minutes a few days ago! Ive never seen such movement.

2. The fed cuts rates, the dollar goes UP?! I have no explanation for this... maybe you can help me out?

3. Bollinger band analysis on the EUR-USD base pairing indicates that they dollar is going to lose out to the EUR in the near future. (Use BB on monthly interval)

Im an informal trader, but im worried.

reply to post by 44soulslayer


The dollar going up after the FED cut was a lay up. As low as it is...there are very little cuts left if any. The dollar will only be heading in one direction over the next 9-18 months, and that is up. Commodity prices will come down with that. Oil prices will come down with that. Like I said earlier. Time to get long the US. Short the Euro, short the Real Short the Yuan short the Yen.

Buy nice dividend paying stocks here in the US and buy companies with strong balance sheets and solid cash flows.

Originally posted by traderonwallst
reply to post by 44soulslayer

 

Buy nice dividend paying stocks here in the US and buy companies with strong balance sheets and solid cash flows.

Please! The balance sheets they show the public aren't worth the paper they are printed on. If a bank gets a positive statement one day and goes under two days later....if that doesn't tell you something I don't know what would.

Originally posted by traderonwallst
The dollar going up after the FED cut was a lay up.

Yes, they did a good job in curbing the financial disaster from
getting out of control.

Originally posted by traderonwallst
As low as it is...there are very little cuts left if any.

As a former tradr on Wallstreet you should know that, in theory, they can cut the interest rate to pretty much 0%. In 2003 they decreased the interest rate to 1%. They are hoping that consumers and businesses will spend more due to the lower interest rate. Whether they really will is the question.

As a consequence of the cuts, the Dollar will depreciate even further. But they have not much of a choice.

Originally posted by traderonwallst
The dollar will only be heading in one direction over the next 9-18 months, and that is up.

Now I am seriously starting to doubt that you've really been a trader on Wallstreet. The Dollar is not going up anytime soon. Elaborate why you think so. There are no indications.

Trader, I'm sure you'll blow a gasket but I would love to hear your opinion here:

www.abovetopsecret.com...'

Originally posted by Mdv2

As a former tradr on Wallstreet you should know that, in theory, they can cut the interest rate to pretty much 0%. In 2003 they decreased the interest rate to 1%. They are hoping that consumers and businesses will spend more due to the lower interest rate. Whether they really will is the question.

As a consequence of the cuts, the Dollar will depreciate even further. But they have not much of a choice.

Originally posted by traderonwallst
The dollar will only be heading in one direction over the next 9-18 months, and that is up.

Now I am seriously starting to doubt that you've really been a trader on Wallstreet. The Dollar is not going up anytime soon. Elaborate why you think so. There are no indications.

First off, I see very little further cuts. And yes, the Dollar is heading up. Instead of screaming about it not going up, wait a few months ... then start a thread saying how you were right and I was wrong. This has been my best 12 months of trading ever, and I no longer trade full time. Do yourself a favor, and make a few trades. If you think the dollar is still going down, there are lots of ways to bet on it........ Lets see how good you are....

I am just completely sick and tired of all the damn negativity on these boards. Its been a rough time, but whether you want to believe it or not, things have just about worked through the system.

GET LONG........the trend is just beginning.

[edit on 22-3-2008 by traderonwallst]

I think it's pure and simlple no need to be a rocket scientist,if the dollar is worth nothing why would anyone want it? current trend instead of pasting old AOL dics on walls might as well tape up the once almighty dollar,can you say confederate money

reply to post by traderonwallst

I think your perception is that of someone who honestly thinks this is a typical pattern of the market, business as usual, what's the big deal.

Well, I'll tell you what the big deal is. We have lost faith in the system itself. We see manipulation in the markets and lies in the media.

Just a week ago the fifth largest bank in the country went belly up over night. Two days prior Bove said it was sound. If that can happen with no warning, no indication on the bakance sheets - not a whisper - how are we suppossed to trust ANYTHING?

This market is not business as usual, and worse yet, we can't even have a clue what really is going on, since balance sheets are filled with red herrings and nightly analysts are lying through their teeth.

It's a total crap shoot at this point. Meanwhile the real doom and gloom comes from the situation at home. Basic staples have eaten up the average guys buffer zone and there's no end in sight. People are hurting, losing homes and getting hungrier.

Sorry if you are tired of hearing doom and gloom, but unfortunately, that is not going away any time soon, because it's REALITY, Everything is being manipulated in favor of everyone but Joe Taxpayer.

reply to post by traderonwallst


Woah, shorting the Euro against the dollar is an incredibly dangerous proposition.

Im planning on doing the reverse. If the dollar gains ground agains the Euro, im shorting dollars.

The euro is a more worthwhile currency in the long run- i think the historicals for the base pairing speak for themselves!

My trades are paying big dividends. I have hedged almost all of my bets through Options, so anything I get now....is total gravy.

It really is easy people if you do a little homework and recognize patterns.

I know its only week since I made the post, but the US economy is on its way to recovery. You can all say you heard it here first.



Long live the US....Long live the dollar!!!!!!

Commodity prices coming in, and stocks have fallen in sync. I have hedged my shorts and once I cover, I will probably get long for the bounce rally.

I am still long the financials, but properly hedged. I am also long big caps. The good dividend payers. BUT, I will not hesitate to exit my positions and turn my trades around. In all honesty these last 9 months have been not just awesome trading months, but fun too. Makes me want to reconsider my career choice and get active again in full time trading. OK, 5 minutes are up.....never gonna do that again.

Back to risk management!

Originally posted by traderonwallst
I know its only week since I made the post, but the US economy is on its way to recovery. You can all say you heard it here first.

Ever heard of the Plunge Protection Team?

Well, I would say google for it.